After trading for Kevin Durant this offseason, I think everyone expected the Houston Rockets to become true title contenders; I for one did. Fred Van Vleet's ACL injury certainly threw a wrench into things. However, even beyond this, the Rockets have some significant roster flaws that will prevent them from being legitimate contenders.
Most notably, their lack of outside shooting and rim protection hurts their chances to win at the highest level. While the standings are jumbled right now, the Rockets are the fifth-best team in the Western Conference to me, with the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Denver Nuggets, and Minnesota Timberwolves all above them.
Simply put, that's not good enough and the Rockets' aforementioned flaws will come back to bite them in the playoffs.
The Rockets' poor spacing will cost them
Let's start with the offensive side of the ball because that's the bigger concern with the Rockets.
On the bright side, the Rockets rank seventh in 3-point accuracy, netting 37 percent of their triples. However, they rank 29th in 3-point frequency. As such, the Rockets can keep up with teams that have significant offensive firepower.
The bigger picture is that Alperen Şengün and Amen Thompson are complete non-threats from 3-point range. Both players shoot below 30 percent from beyond the arc on fewer than two attempts per game, with Thompson shooting an abysmal 20.4 percent. In the modern NBA, having one non-shooter is okay (especially if that player is a big man), but having two non-shooters is a death sentence.
This puts Ime Udoka and the Rockets in an impossible position; they can either clog the driving lanes or put one of these two on the perimeter, where teams will sag off of them. The latter scenario is more likely but extremely harmful. Durant is still a top-10 player in my eyes. Nevertheless, having two non-shooters allows defenses to collapse on him.
Reed Sheppard certainly helps this problem, but he's a second-year player, and he doesn't change the fact that two of Houston's best three players can't shoot.
The Rockets rank 25th in clutch-time offense, which is another clear red flag regarding their contention status. Undoubtedly, their poor shooting contributes to this poor clutch-time offense. Losing Van Vleet's stable playmaking is another factor in these shortcomings.
Since Steven Adams' season-ending injury, the Rockets' offense has taken a step back, dropping from fourth to 17th per Cleaning the Glass. While Adams didn't help with the floor spacing problem, his elite offensive rebounding allowed for a unique (or perhaps more appropriately gimmicky) pathway to success. Even with Adams, I think the Rockets' poor floor spacing would have been problematic. Regardless, without him, this process has been expedited.
In any event, having an offense that is this easy to scheme against will prove to be detrimental in the playoffs.
The Rockets' defense is far from perfect
The Rockets' fifth-ranked defense is their main strength. With versatile defensive stoppers like Thompson and Tari Eason, it's hard to argue that the Rockets don't have a strong defense. Nonetheless, in the playoffs, matchup hunting becomes prevalent, and much like a lack of 3-point shooting, having two poor defenders is a nightmare scenario.
Unfortunately for Houston, Şengün's poor rim protection and Sheppard's slight frame are easy to expose. Heck, even in the regular season, teams are already relentlessly attacking Şengün, and Udoka has openly criticized his star center. Şengün is a fine rim protector (albeit not great), but he really struggles guarding in space and as a pick-and-roll defender.
Notably, the Rockets are 8.5 points per 100 possessions worse defensively with Şengün on the court, according to Cleaning the Glass. Here are a few recent examples of Şengün's defensive shortcomings.
Of course, the Rockets can't abandon Şengün given his importance to the team's offense. Yet opposing teams can expose his weaknesses on both of the court which makes it impossible for the Rockets to win at the highest level.
Sheppard makes an impact as a defensive playmaker, averaging 2.1 stocks. However, at 6-foot-2, 185 pounds, he will be targeted, and it's unlikely that the second-year guard will hold up against bigger teams. Sheppard needs to play sizable minutes, though, given his 3-point shooting abilities.
A disappointing playoff run could lead to some changes
I generally like to be optimistic with young players, and I still view Thompson and Şengün highly as individual players. Nevertheless, I don't think it's far-fetched to suggest that, given their poor spacing fit, the Rockets' offense will crumble in the playoffs, and they could look to trade one of these players (likely Şengün, given his defensive issues as well) in the offseason.
The Rockets could win a playoff series (I especially like their chances against the Lakers in round one). Even still, I would be shocked if they won more than one series, and they certainly aren't contenders like most of us thought before the season.
Ultimately, the Rockets' flaws on both ends of the court put a clear cap on their ceiling, and don't be surprised if this leads to some roster changes this summer.