Giannis does not like the Pacers. Over the past few seasons, Milwaukee and Indiana have become heated rivals, with the Pacers beating the Bucks in the semifinals of the inaugural NBA Cup back in 2023 and then knocking them out of the first round of the playoffs the last two years. He seemed to take pleasure in stealing Myles Turner from the Pacers last offseason, Indiana is not on his rumored list of preferred destinations, and there's no reason to think he'd jump at the chance to join a sworn enemy.
But Indiana could give Giannis the best chance to win multiple rings over the last chunk of his career.
Why trading Giannis to the Pacers works for the Bucks
Let's start with the Pacers and how they can compete with the compelling trade packages other teams can offer. By Chris Kline's estimation in his piece ranking hypothetical trade packages, the Hawks are the team that can make the Bucks the best offer — Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Zaccharie Risacher, the expiring contract of Kristaps Porzingis, and three first-round picks, including the Pelicans' unprotected pick this year, which currently has a 52.1 percent chance of landing in the top four and a 14.0 percent chance of jumping to No. 1.
The Pacers can include their own pick in a deal. As they sit just above the Pelicans in the standings, that pick has a 50.0 percent chance of being in the top four and a 13.2 percent chance of landing at No. 1. That pick is slightly less valuable — as the Pacers could improve over the rest of the season with Giannis on the roster — but not by much. In addition, the Pacers could offer as many as three additional first-rounders.
For the purposes of salary matching, the Pacers can offer two different packages. The simplest would be Pascal Siakam and Bennedict Mathurin. The former may not factor much in their immediate plans, as he's 31, but Siakam is an All-Star-level player who could be flipped again for at least another first-round pick and probably an interesting young player as well. Mathurin may not have the pedigree of Risacher, who was the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft, but he's been way more productive.
Mathurin has battled injuries this year, but he's averaging 17.6 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game, shooting a career-high 37.9 percent from beyond the arc. He had 24 points and 13 rebounds in Game 7 of the NBA Finals against the Thunder, doing everything in his power to keep the Pacers' championship hopes alive. He is a budding, fearless young scorer, with big-game chops and a penchant for getting himself to the line.
The other option would be to leave Mathurin and the picks, and then create Siakam's salary in the aggregate with other young players — something like Andrew Nembhard, Obi Toppin and Jarace Walker. That might be appealing in that it punishes the Pacers by stealing more of their depth, but the Siakam route gives the Bucks a lot more upside for their own rebuild.
A deal certainly stings, given the rivalry, but it could deliver a top-four pick, as many as three other first-rounders, a 23-year-old perimeter scorer worth building around, plus the chance to shop Siakam and Myles Turner for additional cap relief and draft assets.
Why a trade makes sense for the Pacers
The 2024 run to the Eastern Conference Finals and last year's push to the Finals were as much about vibes and chemistry as talent, and it's understandable if the Pacers are hesitant to rock the boat. But the departure of Myles Turner signaled that not everything was perfect behind the scenes, and it's more than just injuries and the absence of Tyrese Haliburton that has them in the Eastern Conference basement.
In short, the vibe has already changed, and the chance to add a talent like Giannis is too good to pass up. Siakam has been a game-changer, but Giannis can do everything he does, better, plus a whole lot more. Giving up Mathurin and a wealth of picks is gambling their future, but it also represents a real chance at the first title in franchise history.
Assuming Haliburtion is healthy, they could run into next season with a starting lineup of Jay Huff, Giannis, Aaron Nesmith, Nembhard and Haliburton, with Isaiah Jackson, Toppin, Jarace Walker, Ben Sheppard and TJ McConnell coming off the bench. That's a deep, experienced roster with arguably the two best players in the Eastern Conference as cornerstones.
The Pacers rarely have a chance to add an established star like Giannis, either through trade or free agency. They also rarely get a crack at a top-four pick — their last one was Rik Smits in 1988. Giving up one for the other is an incredibly difficult choice, but the draft is, even at the top, a much bigger risk than Giannis.
Why Giannis should reconsider the Pacers
Consider what teams like the Heat, Warriors, Knicks, 76ers and Timberwolves would have left on the roster after trading for Giannis, and there are no surefire contenders. He'd be better off than he was in Milwaukee, but none of those teams can offer a decidedly better chance at winning another ring than joining the Pacers. Indianapolis is a smaller market, but their money is just as green, and he's already experienced how easy it is to become a national figure in a small, midwest city.
What the Pacers can offer that no one else can is a chance to maximize his fun. The Pacers, with Haliburton at the helm, are a high-powered joy machine — pushing the ball, firing up shots, helping everyone be the best version of themselves. After years of frustration and disappointment playing a grinding, slow-down style, Indiana represents freedom, not just on a few fleeting fastbreaks but on every possession, every night, for 82 games.
The Pacers fell one game short of a title, but they led the league in fun last year. Haliburton will bring that back with a healthy Achilles, and Giannis can be a part of it. He can make his money. He can win his rings. He can choose to play with the best teammate of his career. All he has to do is be open to imagining himself as an Indiana Pacer.