Don't look now, but the Portland Trail Blazers might be poised for a bit of a breakout year.
The odds are long for a playoff berth: Portland is currently tied with four other teams for the second-worst championship odds going into 2025-26, and are coming off of a less-than-perfect 2025 season (36-46, 12th in the Western Conference).
Meanwhile, the West has stayed dangerous. While Boston and Indiana have automatically vacated two playoff spots by virtue of the absence of their biggest stars and leaders, the same cannot be said of any team in the better conference. What's worse, at least one lottery team, the San Antonio Spurs, are poised and projected to make a playoff push themselves, possibly a deep run if things go well with their all-time unicorn center.
But don't let the Blazers' unheralded roster fool you. Even if this team doesn't end up playing late -spring basketball, they're going to be annoying for anyone to play against. Here are three reasons why.
1. Defense
Fun fact: Portland placed in smack in the middle of the pack for points allowed in 2025 (15th out of 30). But that number might be a bit misleading. The Blazers started the season off horribly, but fielded a top-five defense in the league once the calendar turned. The team doubled down this offseason, making moves to shore up their depth on the less glamorous end of the floor by offloading Anfernee Simons in exchange for veteran Jrue Holiday.
Holiday joins a lineup that is extremely strong in the frontcourt: Donovan Clingan was top five on the team in both defensive +/- and win shares, as was second-team All-Defense selection Toumani Camara (who also finished ninth in DPOY voting). Holiday's efforts on the perimeter will be welcome as Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson continue to grow as defenders. And speaking of which ...
2. Young talent
Outside of the Hawks, the Blazers might have the most unheralded stable of young players with buckets of upside.
Of course, the two names that everyone thinks of, if they remember any, are Sharpe and Scoot. Collectively, both have played well enough to chase Simons out of town, and while Henderson must be feeling the pressure to live up to his draft capital, the flashes of brilliance are still there. You can also bet that Damian Lillard, brought back into the fold in a sort of full-circle, Kevin Garnett-type deal, will be invested in mentoring the two until he returns to the court.
But the young talent goes way beyond the headliners. Portland's best shot at a breakout might actually be the aforementioned Camara. His stats as a sophomore were modest, but the young Belgian still boosted his scoring by 50% with a usage rate of only 14%. This also included a hot stretch of 60% shooting with over 50% from 3.
And that's not even the best part! Camara's counterpart on the blocks is currently outplaying his draft slot, and has a chance to grow. And the third member of their frontcourt is also Portland's best actual player: Deni Avdija, in short, has made the Wizards look really stupid. He's the current hub of this team's offense and still managed to keep up on the defensive end himself.
3. No one sees them coming
This might be a copout, but it's true. While the NBA doesn't have the NFL's year-to-year turnover in terms of playoff-bound teams, there are always one or two that surprise, even in the West. Take a look at Houston's two-season turnaround, when Alperen Sengun finally came into his own as they switched head coaches to Ime Udoka.
Portland can be in the same boat. Lost in the mix of this all is the fact that Lillard is still a top-tier NBA scorer when healthy, and they can field a starting five of positive defenders while still being dangerous offensively.
Yes, the Western Conference is still a gauntlet. But there will be teams that underestimate the Blazers. Most experts already do. And for a team full of hungry youngsters with a mix of proper veteran leadership and reps against the best, that could be all that they need to take on the world.