Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Oklahoma City Thunder are on track to secure the top seed in the Western Conference, setting up a first-round play-in matchup.
- The Warriors stand out as the most desirable due to their recent struggles and key player absences.
- The Clippers, despite their current seeding, have shown a strong second-half surge that makes them a tough potential rival.
While they still have the San Antonio Spurs hot on their trail, it is looking more and more likely that the Oklahoma City Thunder will be the one seed in the Western Conference. Basketball Reference's Probabilities Report gives them a 90.3 percent chance of finishing with the top spot.
Finishing in that place means a first round date with the eighth seed. Usually, first seeds will know who they are playing on the last day of the regular season. But with the implementation of the Play-In tournament, there is a lot more variability that goes into who the Thunder could end up facing.
So, like we did with the Detroit Pistons, let's take a look at who the Thunder are yearning to play and who they may want to avoid.
The start of a Thunder dynasty could means the end of the Warriors'
As someone who loves romanticizing sports, I can't help but fantasize about the potential storylines that would come from a Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors first-round series. The up-and-coming dynasty puts the final nail in the coffin on the last team to completely dominant the league. It's almost like Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are passing the torch of the league to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his ensemble cast.
Outside of the journalistic ramifications, the Warriors seem to pretty easily be the worst of the four potential teams the Thunder could face (remember, the other three are the Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Clippers, and Portland Trail Blazers).
They have the worst record of any of those teams, and have lost 22 of their last 33 games. Their advocates will point to the onslaught of injuries they have been forced to endure (Stephen Curry has missed their last 27 games) as a sign that they are better than their record suggests, and that Golden State will become much more formidable once the regular season is over.
However, no matter how many guys they get back, Jimmy Butler III is not walking through that door any time soon. The Warriors' chances of truly being a threat in the Western Conference died the moment Butler tore his ACL. This season, when Butler is on the floor, Golden State has a +7.8 net rating per 100 possessions (per PBP Stats). Meanwhile, when he's not on the floor, their net rating sinks to a -3.9 per 100.
Without him, Golden State is too old, doesn't have enough two-way players, and is asking Curry to do way too much. The juggernaut Thunder would eat them alive in a first round matchup.
Would Shai-Gilgeous Alexander be the best player in a series against the Los Angeles Clippers?
Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the best players of the 21st Century, at the peak of his powers, and probably on his way to his second straight MVP Award.
As long as he is at the control center, the odds of Oklahoma City touting the best player in any given series are pretty high. That would probably be the case if the Thunder drew the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round. But are we sure that is the case?
Kawhi Leonard may be playing the best basketball of his career, and while Gilgeous-Alexander is still the better player at this point in time, The Claw is capable of heating up in a way that could put that statement into question.
Look at his numbers in comparison with Gilgeous-Alexander since November 27:
Kawhi Leonard | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | |
|---|---|---|
PPG | 28.8 | 31.1 |
RPG | 6.5 | 4.2 |
APG | 3.7 | 6.5 |
SPG | 1.9 | 1.3 |
TS% | 63.1% | 65.9% |
On/Off Rating (Full Season) | 13.2 | 7.4 |
Gilgeous-Alexander still has the better counting stats, but it is close, and if Leonard does play like the best player in the series, things could get interesting. Not to mention that the Clippers are the Charlotte Hornets of the Western Conference in that they are not your typical eighth-seed. After a 6-21 start, they have gone 33-17 in their last 50 games. The Clippers are also eighth in net rating in this stretch.
Let's be clear. The Thunder would still be favored in a potential series with the Clippers. All we're saying is they certainly wouldn't be jonesing to play them in the first round.