You barely know they exist. Their name has no relevance to their hometown. They have no signature superstar. They traded their “best players” last year in what mostly amounted to cash dumps. Their No.2 overall pick was largely underwhelming.
Forget all that. I’m here to tell you that the Washington Wizards are going to be better than you think in 2026.
Not, like, good. Oh, no, not at all. Not even close. Not even .500, or anywhere close to it.
But … better. And maybe … a little fun?
The trends
The Wizards won four games between Nov. 1 and Feb. 1. Four. In three months. They went 0-14 in November and 1-16 in January. Not great, Bob. From that perspective, they *had* to improve, because God knows they couldn’t get worse.
But let me put this in a season flow perspective.
Teams spend October and November trying to figure out if they *can* compete. They spend December and January figuring out just how good they are, or are not. From February through the end of the season, the focus is just on surviving the grind until the season’s end or the playoffs.
The Wizards figured out in November, “nope, not gonna be our year, we are in fact as bad as we thought we would be.” December was just more badness. January was a full-on “let’s commit to the bit and get into the true tanking race.” The Wizards’ season was over by the end of November, and their ability to meaningfully damage their lottery chances were over by January.
Now, here’s where it gets interesting: From Feb. 1 through March 15, the Wizards went 9-10.
That is a cherry-picked stat; almost every team is going to look like they have hope if you take only the best stretch of their season. But really think about that. They weren’t just “not as horrible.” They were one game under .500 over a month and a half stretch, about a quarter of the season. They were legitimately not bad for a significant part of the season when they had no incentive to be bad.
Of note in this stretch? The Wizards were 6-4 with Khris Middleton, acquired at the deadline for Kyle Kuzma’s soul-dragging entity, in the lineup.
“So what happened after that?” Well, the Wizards finished 3-13. So, just a blip.
But the Wizards *knew* they had done the work of actually looking like a team for a bit and couldn’t risk hurting their lottery odds any further by winning, so they pivoted again.
(In reality, they should have just kept competing; tanking only landed them the No. 6 pick, and while Tre Johnson could be awesome, it was just a lot of misery for no tangible help in their lottery spot.)
The point is that to believe a bad team will get better, more than their offseason moves, I need to see signs of life.
From Feb. 1 through the end of the season, the Wizards were 21st in defense. That’s bottom-10 … but it’s not bottom three, which is the real badness. Coaching started to kick in. The team started to play together. (The offense was still bottom three and will still be awful this year.)
There are signs of life that this team has some potential.
The kiddos
There’s been a lot of talk this week about Alexandre Sarr’s terrible rookie season, and rightfully so. His inability to finish at the rim is a major concern long-term as he looks to prove worthy of the pick that was made (though it’s not like almost any of his other draft-year colleagues shone).
But in that stretch we’re choosing to select as when the Wizards were trying, he shot 37 percent from three. Sarr’s best value in the short term is going to be as a tool for the good guards and playmakers the Wizards have.
Bub Carrington and Kyshawn George have real shake to their game as perimeter creators and shooters. I’m unsure if Bilal Coulibaly is still reclaimable after last season. Cory Kispert is probably their best young player, and if the Wizards are in fact better, he could be a breakout. Tre Johnson has a Rookie of the Year ceiling.
Do not sleep on Tristan Vukcevic, who somehow came back on a two-way contract instead of a guaranteed multi-year deal. I’m not kidding when I say I think Vukcevic might be their third- or fourth-best young player behind Kispert, Carrington and maybe Sarr.
There’s talent here, but the better thing is that a lot of their talent makes other players better. They just need someone to step up and be “the guy.”
The vets
As I said above, Middleton made a huge impact on the Wizards. He’s got CJ McCollum with him, for now. Just having a veteran who can tell the kids where to be and where to go, to set a standard of professionalism, is a huge deal.
(This also makes Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma’s leadership look absolutely horrendous in retrospect.)
I don’t know how long the Wizards will keep these two. They’ll have more value as veteran additions to other teams, and may decide to opt for a buyout at some point before March. But for as long as they’re in D.C., they’re going to actively make the team better and set a standard the other kids need to learn.
The problem
The Wizards’ first-round pick is top-eight protected next year, meaning they must finish in the bottom five to keep it.
Personally, I think it would be better just to pursue actually being competitive, trust in the basketball gods to reward them and not rely on what has been a horrible outcome for tanking teams in recent years to save them.
But they will almost definitely not choose this route.
However, there is a huge gap between finishing with the No. 1 pick with a win total likely in the teens and the No. 5 pick with a win total in the mid-20s.
“Does it really matter if they still win fewer than 30 games?” Yes! There are different levels and types of bad.
The Wizards will be bad next season. But they will also be better than you think. It’s hard to see, but there’s the beginning of a real new era in Washington. The question will be if they can capitalize on it.