The Dallas Mavericks sacrificed Luka Dončić to the basketball gods and were rewarded with the chance to select Cooper Flagg No. 1 overall in the 2025 NBA Draft. Not even Nico Harrison could mess up that assignment, and it left Dallas in a much better long-term position than they were a few months prior, when the Dončić trade appeared to blow up their present and future.
Flagg was a historically dominant freshman at Duke. He joins Zion Williamson and Kevin Durant in the exclusive club of freshman Wooden Award winners, which is not bad company to keep. Of course, there are no guarantees when transitioning to the NBA level, but it's hard to imagine Flagg — a powerful 6-foot-9 jumbo playmaker who can score, pass and defend like hell — falling flat at the NBA level.
He should win Rookie of the Year going away. Dallas is a competitive team on paper and Flagg will incur a significant workload to begin the season with Kyrie Irving out of commission. Given the breadth of Flagg's skill set and the incredible efficiency with which he dominated at Duke, very little suggests that he won't win the NBA's top rookie honor.
Never say never, though. And never say "sure thing," because it does not exist in the NBA. Flagg could get hurt. Or he might struggle with his shot. Or maybe, there's just a rookie we all overlooked, primed to ascend to historic heights.
Here are Flagg's most realistic challengers in the 2026 NBA Rookie of the Year race.
6. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Charlotte Hornets
Among the genuine sleepers from this draft class, few feel more destined for an immediate impact than Charlotte Hornets big man Ryan Kalkbenner. The towering 7-foot-1 senior was selected 34th overall. In five seasons at Creighton, Kalkbrenner became a four-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year. As a senior, he shot 70.6 percent on 2s and 34.4 percent on 3s at a healthy volume.
The appeal here is simple. Kalkbrenner is an older rookie with a polished, ready-made skill set. He also fills a critical position of need for the Hornets. Right now, either Mason Plumlee or Moussa Diabate are slated to start games at center for the Hornets. Both have their merits, but that is an incredibly weak center rotation — one Kalkbrenner could, in theory, immediately elevate.
The Hornets' defense has been a mess for years. With all due respect to Plumlee and Diabate, neither will meaningfully address those concerns. Kalkbrenner is a towering shot-blocker with incredible timing and instincts around the hoop. He won't slide his feet in space with great success, but he will curb rim traffic and force opposing offenses into more challenging looks.
If Kalkbrenner can come in, start games, finish 70 percent of his rim attempts and 30-plus percent of his 3s, all while anchoring an improved Charlotte defense... that would be a compelling case for awards consideration.
5. VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers lucked into the No. 3 pick and settled on Baylor's VJ Edgecombe fairly early in the process. It's hard to disagree with the selection. While it's fair to quibble with Philly's guard depth, this is a perimeter-oriented league in a lot of ways, and the Sixers (should) have four excellent guards to mix and match in the backcourt.
Edgecombe is a nuclear athlete, in the top one perfect of one percent for agility and explosiveness. That leads to incredible displays of range and disruption on defense. It can also allow Edgecombe to get downhill, draw fouls and finish over unlucky souls at the rim offensively. He's still developing as a ball-handler and a mid-range shooter, but we saw meaningful signs of growth in Summer League. Edgecombe's well-documented work ethic appears bound to work in his favor.
Edgecombe may or may not start out of the gate for Philadelphia, but he should receive significant minutes for a team with championship aspirations, however foolish those aspirations may be. The Sixers will have plenty of mouths to feed at full strength, but the "at full strength" qualifier rarely actually applies to Philadelphia. We can expect Joel Embiid, Paul George and others to miss chunks of time, if not the majority of the season. As such, the door should be open for Philly to treat Edgecombe like a No. 3 pick and let him explore the outer reaches of his skill set on occasion.
4. Tre Johnson, Washington Wizards
Tre Johnson is going to put up NUMBERS. Big numbers. The Washington Wizards are bad on purpose and this offense desperately needs a shot in the arm. Veterans like CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton might steal shots early in the season, but after the trade deadline, I suspect that Johnson will have a long, open runway to establish himself as the foundational piece of this Washington roster.
Generally we hand Rookie of the Year to the highest scoring rookies. It's just the nature of the game. The collective "we" have become much better about discerning between efficient scoring and empty calories in recent years, but there is a built-in understanding that most rookies are inefficient or just not very productive. As a result, if Johnson comes in guns blazing, he will earn a significant perch in the awards race.
Defense and shot selection will be a challenge for Johnson early in his career, but he's one of the most dynamic shot-makers to enter the league in recent years and should be a treat to watch as Washington becomes "Losers for Boozer" or whatever the phrase is for this year's tank brigade.
3. Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets
Kon Knueppel won Summer League MVP, which was the cherry on top of a great summer for the Hornets' youth. It's impossible not to notice the vibe shift happening in Charlotte right now. There is still plenty left to prove with this group, starting with LaMelo Ball, but the energy in the building is high. All four of the Hornets' rookies are of extremely high character, known for their competitive edge. Meanwhile, veteran newcomers like Collin Sexton bring a similarly mature, focused energy to the locker room.
Charlotte still has to go out there and stay healthy and play defense with a sense of urgency, but it feels like things are slowly coming together. If the Hornets end up winning a few more games than expected, it would not be shocking in the least if Knueppel was a big reason why.
He spent his Duke tenure lost in Flagg's shadow a bit, but Knueppel is an incredible talent in his own right. The jumper is pure and the processing speed is high. While not a great athlete by NBA standards, Knueppel plays with precision and purpose. He attacks closeouts with determination and deploys his strong frame to evade shot contests at the rim. Knueppel is one of the best two-foot finishers from this class, able to absorb contact and score at funky angles with his elite touch.
While he won't shut anyone down on defense, Knueppel is a smart and competitive off-ball defender and should up okay in the NBA. If the offense delivers at the level we know it can, both as an off-ball shooter but also as a secondary playmaker and connector on the wing, then Knueppel is going to easily rank among the most impactful rookies this season.
2. Collin Murray-Boyles, Toronto Raptors
Collin Murray-Boyles was incredible for the Toronto Raptors Summer League squad, blowing up plays all over the floor on defense and showcasing just enough offensive skill to excite the fanbase. Even without the clearest path to opportunities, CMB feels like one of the surest bets to render an immediate impact at the next level. Plus, as Jakob Poeltl ages and names like R.J. Barrett come up in trade rumors, the path will eventually open up for the sophomore out of South Carolina.
The No. 3-ranked prospect here at FanSided, Murray-Boyles tends to attract fervent support and equally dismissive hate. Not everybody "gets it," as CMB is a 6-foot-7, non-shooting center. There aren't many successful NBA players in his vein. But, Murray-Boyles has what it takes to be an outlier — and to improve this Raptors lineup on day one, especially when it comes to defense.
The dude is an absolute madman on the defensive end, y'all. You will not find a prospect from 2025 who is more committed to mucking up the procedures of the opposing offense than CMB. He moves his feet well, despite a stocky build, and he has the strength to bully guards or bigs alike at the point of attack. Murray-Boyles is sharp with his rotations and ambitious when it comes time to sneak backdoor to collect an errant pass or block an ill-advised shot attempt.
It will take time for CMB to figure out his role offensively, especially on a Raptors team with limited spacing, but he's super effective as a driver and at-rim finisher, and he's at least trying to shoot more 3s. If Murray-Boyles can become at least passable on offense while living up to his extreme defensive potential, Toronto will find it hard to keep him off the floor.
1. Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs
Dylan Harper was the No. 2 pick for a reason. The San Antonio Spurs fought off every impulse to trade him or to select a different prospect, all because Harper was the clear best available talent. Sure, he walks into a crowded backcourt, with a wonky fit between him, Stephon Castle and the newly extended De'Aaron Fox. The Spurs, once point guard-starved, or now locked and loaded at the position. It remains to be seen if that does or does not come at the expense of other positions.
Spacing the floor will be a challenge for the Spurs. Harper, Fox and Castle can all shoot 3s, but none of them are especially well adept. Castle is probably the least consistent, followed by Harper (at least when it's off the dribble). Fox has become a much better shooter, but him leading a backcourt by example still does not feel like an optimal display of shot-making acumen from the point guards.
Even so, Harper is so dynamic as a slasher. He gets to the rim at will, comfortable changing speeds and direction on a dime, with a solid 6-foot-5 frame that allows him to absorb contact and play different angles at the rim. He bowls through smaller guards and tap dances around slow-footed bigs on a switch. He's a brilliant live-dribble passer as well, with enough spot-up shooting to believe he will eventually be dependable from distance.
The Spurs will play him a bunch — he was the No. 2 pick — and as such, it's hard to put anyone else here at the moment.