NCAA Bracketology: Who would get top 4 seeds if the season ended today?
Some people love it when the new year hits so that they can make resolutions to better themselves and their lives. Me? I love it because it means that the college basketball season is about to really get intense.
Make no mistake, the non-conference slate was phenomenal this year, with an endless supply of compelling matchups between top teams. There's just something about conference play and the run-up to the NCAA Tournament that just hits different, though. Early in the season is a time for college basketball teams to show what they could be. Later in the season is a time for them to show what they are.
The NCAA Tournament field is taking shape, and though there are a bunch of teams that are positioning themselves on and around the bubble, there are others that are separating themselves from the rest of the country. Today we're looking at the top four teams that are currently on track to claim 1-seeds in the Big Dance, as well as how they got in this position, which players have made the biggest impact, and whether they'll be able to keep this up through March.
Close the checkout page for that new gym membership you were thinking about buying, and instead come check out the best that college basketball has to offer.
Fourth overall seed: Iowa State Cyclones
The Iowa State athletic department is in the midst of a pretty good run. First the football team made the Big 12 title game and won a 42-41 thriller over Miami in the Pop-Tarts Bowl to reach 11 wins for the first time in program history, and now the men's basketball team is on pace to secure its first-ever NCAA Tournament 1-seed.
No coach in the country has done a better job of turning around a down-and-out program than TJ Otzelberger. The Cyclones were 2-22 in former coach Steve Prohm's final season in charge, but in the next three years, Iowa State has won 70 games while earning, in order, an 11-seed, a 6-seed, and a 2-seed while reaching two Sweet Sixteens.
The Cyclones aren't very reliant on the three-point shot, but they're efficient in every other way. They're ninth in the country in turnover margin thanks to a balanced offense that features five players averaging double figures, and a pressure defense with four players that average 1.4 steals or more.
This team just does everything well. They Cyclones shoot the ball about 11 percentage points better than their opponents, and they excel at both grabbing their own and limiting opponents' offensive rebounds. They also make more free throws than their opponents even attempt.
The Cyclones have double-digit wins over Marquette, Kansas and Baylor on their resume, and a neutral court loss to Auburn in the Maui Invitational is still a quality loss, even though Iowa State let a 17-point first-half lead slip away in that one.
At 15-2, Iowa State's profile is already impressive, and they'll have two more chances to really impress the committee when they take on Kansas at Phog Allen Fieldhouse on February 3rd and Houston on the road on February 22nd.
Third overall seed: Alabama Crimson Tide
Everyone knows Alabama as a football school, but Nate Oats has turned the basketball program into a basketball power that's on the cusp of breaking through for its first national title.
The Crimson Tide got to its first Final Four last year before succumbing to eventual repeat champ UConn, but they've come back even stronger this year thanks to the returns of Mark Sears and March Madness hero Grant Nelson.
Alabama bombs threes at a prodigious rate, but they're actually second in the country with a 60.8 shooting percentage from two that's made possible not only by their ability to spread the court, but as a result of their relentless pace, which ranks first in the nation.
Rutgers transfer Cliff Omoruyi has given the Tide some much-needed rim protection, while the rest of the defense has done an outstanding job of defending the three-point line. Alabama's opponents only shoot 29.2 percent from deep.
Bama has the top-ranked strength of schedule according to KenPom, which has resulted in a bevy of quality wins. Among the Tide's victims are Illinois, Houston, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Kentucky. They close the regular season with an insane stretch of seven straight games against teams that are currently ranked in the top-25, including two games against No. 1 Auburn and top-10 matchups with Kentucky, Tennessee and Florida. This team will be as battle-tested as anyone once the tournament arrives.
Second overall seed: Duke Blue Devils
NBA fans are frothing at the mouth to see Cooper Flagg in the pros, but the diaper dandy still has work to do in the college ranks. Flagg has lived up to the hype by being one of the frontrunners for the Wooden Award, and if Duke finds a way to cut down the nets in early April, it'll undoubtedly be because Flagg led the Blue Devils there.
It takes more than one dynamite freshman to be a great team, though. Just ask Rutgers, who is on the outside of the bubble looking in despite the outsized contributions of two future top-five picks in Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey.
Jon Scheyer's team is much more than just the Flagg show, as fellow freshmen Kon Knueppel and Kaman Maluach have also joined in on the fun. Knueppel is the team's second-leading scorer and leader in threes, while the 7-foot-2 Maluach has keyed an interior defense that's second only to Houston in two-point field goal percentage allowed. Oh yeah, he also leads the country in true shooting percentage.
No team in the country has a better win than Duke thanks to the Blue Devils' 84-78 victory over Auburn in early December. In that game, Flagg went toe-to-toe with his stiffest competition for the Wooden Award, Auburn senior Johni Broome, and he came out with a statistical draw and the team win.
Duke is smacking the ACC around. They're currently 8-0 in conference play with an average margin of victory of 23 points. Whether the conference is in a fallow period or not, that's impressive. The only things standing in the way of Duke running the table in the regular season are two dates with the archrival Tar Heels, who have been extremely up-and-down this season, and a delightful late February matchup against Illinois at Madison Square Garden.
Duke doesn't have the quality wins that some of these other teams do, but if they win over 25 games and take the ACC crown with room to spare, there's no way they miss out on getting a 1-seed.
First overall seed: Auburn Tigers
Johni Broome is the biggest reason that Auburn could sweep its way into the No. 1 overall seed come March, but as the Tigers showed in beating two ranked conference foes in Mississippi State and Georgia without him, he's far from the only one.
Bruce Pearl's team has the most efficient offense in the country. The Tigers don't turn it over, they shoot the hell out of it from inside and outside the arc, and they grab a high percentage of their own misses. Three starters shoot over 40 percent from three, and six different players average 10 points or more. Auburn comes at you in waves, with 10 players that play more than 10 minutes per game and even Broome only averaging just over 27.
Auburn can get points in a variety of ways, but when all else fails, they can always dump it in the post to Broome, who's proven to be close to unstoppable in his senior year, save for his recent ankle sprain that he should return from soon.
The SEC has proven itself to be far and away the best conference in college basketball, yet Auburn, the unanimous No. 1 team in the latest AP poll, is still clearly the team to beat. Houston, Iowa State, North Carolina and Purdue (all of whom made the Sweet 16 or better last year) can all vouch for Auburn's ability, and nobody has yet been able to beat the Tigers in five conference games.
The schedule is about to crank into overdrive, as there are eight games remaining against teams currently ranked in the top 16. Running the table will be close to impossible, but if there's a team in the country that's built to survive that gauntlet, it's Auburn.