The NCAA Tournament is near. Teams on the bubble don’t have time to get last minute wins to boost their resume. At this point, teams on the bubble either need a conference tournament run to get in or have to win the whole thing to get an automatic bid. When you’re a team like Georgia, Texas or Auburn, that gets even more difficult with a loaded conference. Either way, these teams can’t afford any hiccups with the challenge ahead of them. Here’s five bubble teams that will have a tough road to the NCAA Tournament.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati has had such an odd season. They’ve had disappointing losses, but they’ve also managed to beat Iowa State when they were the No. 2 ranked team in the country at the time and then stormed into Lawrence and handed Kansas a rare home loss at the end of February. The Bearcats have snuck into Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology as the “Next Four Out”. It sounds good on paper, but this team occasionally wins games they shouldn’t and loses games they should.
The Bearcats have an inconsistent offense that sometimes shows up and then other times goes dormant for minutes at a time throughout a game. UC has No. 19 BYU on Tuesday and then ends the regular season against TCU, another bubble team. It’s clear the Bearcats will need a lot of help and probably a conference tournament run to get into the NCAA Tournament. They’re good enough to get their, but they get in their own way. That’s why I think the Bearcats won’t pass this pivotal point of the season.
Miami RedHawks
Miami is the lone undefeated basketball team in Division I and there’s been a lot of talk about why the RedHawks haven’t been getting more attention. Well, their strength of schedule and strength of record is in the gutter. That said, the NCAA Tournament field is 68 teams for a reason. Lately, it’s been brought up that the field is meant for mediocre P4 teams rather than good mid-major teams, regardless of the analytics.
That’s why the Redhawks will ultimately get snubbed or be forced into one of the first four play-in games. Miami has managed to stay undefeated, but each game they play, it almost feels like they’re getting closer to that first loss of the season rather than entering the tournament as the only undefeated team. Miami will get the short end of the stick thanks to NET rankings and their only hope is to get in as an undefeated team.
I don’t think the committee will make the Mid-American Conference a multi-bid league. It feels like the pressure to be perfect is increasing by the game for Miami and a loss at this point in the season will shatter their hopes of an NCAA Tournament bid. I don’t agree with it, but it’s clear every evaluation tool for the committee is set up to shun the mid-majors, regardless of how good they are.
Texas Longhorns
Texas has been on the NCAA Tournament bubble essentially since Lunardi has been releasing his bracketology reports this year. I think the only way Texas gets in is if it steals a spot from a team like Miami or it goes on an SEC tournament run. The Longhorns end the year with Arkansas and Oklahoma. Arkansas is coming off a loss to Florida so I expect them to look a lot better to end the season.
The Longhorns have decent wins, beating Vanderbilt and Alabama, who were ranked top 15 at the time, as well as wins over Georgia and NC State, both ranked in the top 25 at the time. It’s fair to think the Longhorns have a strong enough resume, but it’s hard to think that if they lose out and don’t get a win in the SEC tourney, how they deserve to get into the NCAA Tournament.
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia has had a decent season. They spent most of the early part of the year ranked inside the top 25. The SEC gauntlet took over and thwarted the Bulldogs’ hot start. After opening up the year 16-3, they’ve gone just 4-6 since. They shouldn’t be punished for a rough stretch, but they also shouldn’t be rewarded just because they’re in the SEC.
All four teams that are last in, per Lunardi’s bracketology, are all SEC teams. Coincidence? NOT. The Bulldogs are a solid team. They could very well be a sleeper team, but they can’t get to the NCAA Tournament if they don’t pass their final test. The Bulldogs need to probably win out over No. 17 Alabama and Mississippi State and win a game or two in the SEC tournament. It feels like a longshot with the parity in the SEC nowadays.
Auburn Tigers
Somehow, the Tigers are still in the NCAA Tournament conversation with a 15-14 record and one win in the last month. It just doesn’t make sense that a team with this bad of a stretch and record is still in the conversation. With Alabama left and the SEC tournament, the Tigers shouldn’t be in the conversation too much longer.
The Tigers have three top 15 wins, but it’s just hard to believe they can get into the tournament as a team with 14 losses and no conference championship win. I think they’ll need more than just a couple wins in the SEC tournament. They’re going to need to win the whole thing, and that isn’t going to happen. Lunardi has Auburn as one of the last four in and even that is a gift.