This women's college basketball season has felt inevitable from the jump. UConn, UCLA, South Carolina and Texas have been on a collision course for the Final Four. While LSU, Vanderbilt and sometimes Michigan have looked capable of slowing them down, no one really expects anything other than the four No. 1 seeds to make it to Phoenix.
But weird things happen in March, and there are some good basketball teams out there beyond those top four and the few teams that have been discussed as viable threats to them. Looking past the seven teams I've mentioned as Final Four contenders, there are a handful of other teams in the running if things get wild over the next two weeks.
Iowa Hawkeyes
What Hawkeyes team are we going to get in the NCAA Tournament? The one that beat Michigan by 17 in the Big Ten semifinals, or the one ththat lost to UCLA by 51 in the Big Ten final?
That blowout loss — and the earlier 23-point loss to the Bruins — looks bad for Iowa's resume, but Iowa landed in a region without UCLA (or UConn), which is a huge help. Beating South Carolina won't be easy because the Gamecocks have the inside presence to stop the Hawkeyes, but the path to at least the Elite Eight is doable.
One big thing working in Iowa's favor: bigs. The duo of Ava Heiden and Hannah Stuelke gives the Hawkeyes one of the best frontcourts in the nation, and that advantage comes in handy most nights. In the Big Ten Tournament win over Michigan, that size advantage was key to pulling off the upset. The UCLA matchups might just be a great example of an Achilles heel, as UCLA's Lauren Betts is one of the few bigs who can actually neutralize Iowa's inside advantage.
Minnesota
The Golden Gophers are one of the best stories in college basketball this season, with the team not only making its first NCAA Tournament since 2018, but earning a top-four seed for the first time since 2005.
Not that we shouldn't have seen this coming. Dawn Plitzuweit's team won the WBIT last season, and winning a postseason tournament can be a great way to build up a program for a strong run the next season.
Minnesota boasts a strong resume this season, including Division I's 17th-best offensive rating and 13th-best net rating. The team has wins over USC, Oregon, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio State and Illinois, though it's worth noting the team has struggled a bit when playing from behind. Of Minnesota's eight losses, half are by double digits, including four of the team's past five defeats. Still, if Minnesota can control the pace of play and slow things down, the Golden Gophers can beat anyone — even the No. 1 seed in their region, UCLA.
West Virginia
From Dawn Plitzuweit's current team to Dawn Plitzuweit's new team. Seriously, her choice to leave West Virginia for Minnesota is one of those rare moves that works out great for both programs. Minnesota got the jolt it needed, and West Virginia hired former SFA head coach Mark Kellogg.
The Big 12 Tournament champions play an incredibly fun brand of basketball. Offensively, the Mountaineers are more aggressive than pretty much anyone when it comes to getting to the rim, and it comes at the expense of just not taking many midrange shots, something that helps with the team's efficiency as it emphasizes taking better quality shots.
Percent of FGA | Division I Percentile Rank | |
|---|---|---|
At The Rim | 38.7 | 95th |
Mid Range | 10.0 | 17th |
Then there's WVU's defense, which is aggressive at trying to create turnovers. The Mountaineers are 15th among Division I teams in steal rate. That aggressiveness could be an issue against better opponents, but it could also serve to up the weirdness factor in big games, potentially helping the Mountaineers make a deep March run.
The bracket also sets up perfectly for the Mountaineers. The No. 1 seed in their region is Texas, the most beatable No. 1 seed. The No. 2 seed is Michigan, which has had trouble closing out close games. The No. 3 is Louisville, which was aided a bit record-wise by playing in a weak ACC.
Oklahoma State
The Cowgirls posted their best net rating of the Jacie Hoyt era, outscoring teams by an average of 24.8 points per 100 possessions. Six players are averaging at least 9.9 points per game, showcasing the depth of this roster.
Of the team's nine losses, only three were by double digits, and while the 32-point road loss to West Virginia stands out as particularly damning, the Cowgirls also have some big wins on the resume, beating Iowa State twice and Texas Tech once, all by double digits.
This is a team that is capable of putting up some serious scoring numbers, ranking ninth in Division I in offensive rating. Being a No. 8 seed makes a run unlikely, but the Cowgirls are in a winnable bracket if they find a way to upset UCLA in the second round. That's one of the tallest asks for any team, but I wouldn't call it impossible.
North Carolina
Yes, Duke won the ACC Tournament, but North Carolina entered the conference tournament as one of the hottest teams in the nation, winning 12 of its final 13 regular-season games. Included in that span were wins over Duke, Virginia, NC State and Clemson, and the lone loss was to the Blue Devils.
Overall, UNC has played hard all season. Early season losses to UCLA and Texas helped build resolve, and the team picked up wins over two of the nation's best mid-majors, Fairfield and South Dakota State.
One thing that will really help the Tar Heels in the NCAA Tournament is that this is a very well-rounded squad, playing solid basketball on both ends of the floor.
Value | Division I Rank | |
|---|---|---|
Offensive Rating | 106.1 | 27th |
Defensive Rating | 82.6 | 31st |
Net Rating | 23.5 | 18th |
If UNC makes a Final Four run, it probably won't be pretty. The team will need to slow the game down on both ends as it works to grind out victories over the first two weeks of the tournament. Against the wrong team, things can go wrong fast, but the depth of Courtney Banghart's team means you can never count them out. They'll have to beat No. 1 seed UConn to get there, but I don't think the Huskies are as unbeatable as they look.