It's hard to win a national championship. One flaw can ruin a team's entire run. A bad 3-point shooting team faces an offense so good that they're forced to shoot. A bad interior defense has to face an elite big. Things happen, and good teams suffers a surprise defeat.
There are seven teams that I would call title contenders at the moment, though the degree of confidence I have in each differs. Regardless, each team has something that could serve as its fatal flaw in March.
UConn: Drawing fouls
It's hard to really find flaws with an undefeated team that ranks first in the nation in net rating and has played exactly one competitive game all season. The duo of Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd are just running over opponents, and the Huskies look to be the clear favorites to come away from this season as champions.
But I do wonder about free-throw shooting. The team shoots 75.5 percent from the stripe, which isn't great, but isn't awful either, as the mark ranks 54th in the nation. Considering the team leads the nation in both 2-point and 3-point percentage, that free-throw number is weirdly low, but it won't kill them.
What might be an issue is that the Huskies aren't particularly good at drawing fouls. The team's free throw rate of 12.4 percent ranks 358th out of 363 teams, and its percentage of points coming from the line ranks last. If the games get physical, can the Huskies play through that physicality and force the opponents to foul them?
UCLA: Is there a go-to scorer?
Could this be a situation where a team simply has too many good players? Because I really do wonder who takes over in crunch time of a big game.
UCLA has one of the most well-rounded lineups in the country, but is there a player who can single-handedly lead the Bruins to a win if needed? Lauren Betts is a traditional post big, so while she's the team's leading scorer, she's not going to be able to take over from outside.
Kiki Rice and Gianna Kneepkens are good shooters, but the answer is probably that Gabriela Jaquez would need to be that player? Can she be? I don't know. UCLA has been blowing out most of its opponents, so the team hasn't necessarily had to worry about that.
South Carolina: Lack of 3-point shooting
The Gamecocks can make 3-pointers. They just don't do it.
South Carolina is one of the nation's best 3-point shooting teams, ranking sixth in the nation in 3-point field goal percentage. The issue is that the team rarely actually attempts them, with the team's 436 attempts from deep ranking 278th in the nation.
This isn't an issue of not having the personnel. It's an issue of Dawn Staley's game plan minimizing the importance of shooting and instead emphasizing physicality and interior play. But just because the Gamecocks have players that can shoot doesn't mean they'll make them in big spots if those shots are outside of the normal rhythm of the offense. It'd be nice to see some experimentation with additional 3-point looks over a very winnable final four games to get the players prepared for anything in March.
Texas: Lack of 3-point shooting
No, that's not a misprint. South Carolina and Texas have the same major flaw, but Texas definitely has it worse.
Team | Rank in % Pts from 3 | Rank in 3P% |
|---|---|---|
South Carolina | 322nd | 6th |
Texas | 363rd | 181st |
It's not that Texas can't shoot 3-pointers. It's simply that Vic Schaefer's system makes it very unlikely that the Longhorns will actually do it. As we saw in the loss to Vanderbilt, this is a losing strategy against good offensive teams.
And while South Carolina has been elite from deep in its limited sample, Texas has not been. The team is basically right in the middle among Division I teams in 3-point percentage, largely because Madison Booker is shooting just 21.1 percent from deep. Jordan Lee is going to be very important in close games.
Vanderbilt: Defense
Of the four championship caliber SEC teams, here's where they rank in SEC play in defensive rating.
Team | Defensive Rating Rank (SEC Games) |
|---|---|
South Carolina | 1st |
Texas | 2nd |
LSU | 3rd |
Vanderbilt | 10th |
This offense, led by Mikayla Blakes and freshman Aubrey Galvan, can outscore anyone, but can the Commodores get stops? In their loss to South Carolina, they gave up 103 points, one of five times they've allowed 80 or more in a game.
One issue is that this team doesn't have the size to stop physical teams inside. The 57.1 percent opponent field goal percentage at the rim is right around the Division I average, but the team's opponent non-rim paint percentage and midrange percentages are a decent bit worse than average.
LSU: Yeah...it's also the 3-point issue
Three of the four best SEC schools have the same flaw: they don't shoot from deep. That works against other SEC teams because it's really just not a shooting conference, but it becomes a potential liability in March.
LSU is harder to get a read on than the other two teams because of the whole "level of competition" thing. Overall, the Tigers shoot 37.5 percent from deep, ninth-best in Division I. But isolate that to only SEC games and it drops a bit to 35.8 percent, fourth-best in the conference. Still good, but I do wonder at least a bit about sustainability against good teams.
And like with the Gamecocks, I worry that the team isn't ready if it needs to increase its volume of looks, as the team is 359th in Division I in percentage of points from deep. Mikaylah Williams and Flau'jae Johnson both shoot over 40 percent from deep, but will that hold up if they have to do it more often.
Michigan: Closing out close games
Michigan's issue is simple: they struggle to close out against top teams.
The Wolverines have faced three other title contenders. All three games resulted in three-point losses. Michigan is 1-3 in one-score games, and its two wins in games decided by five or fewer points both went to overtime.
For whatever reason, this team has struggled in tight contests. Maybe it's the experience issue, as the team's best players are sophomores? Maybe, too, it's something that can't be fixed on the fly. Maybe in order to win the 2027 NCAA Tournament, the Wolverines need the experience of a heartbreaking tournament loss this year?
Or, maybe one of Olivia Olson, Syla Swords or Mila Holloway will find another gear. The personnel is here for a deep run, but someone has to keep them from losing close games. Someone has to step up and take the biggest shot of the game.