Tournament season is inching closer and closer. On Saturday night, women's college basketball fans got one of their first tangible pieces of evidence that the NCAA Tournament is just around the corner with the release of the current top 16 seeds. This is hugely important, as the top 16 teams will host the first and second rounds of the tournament.
UConn, UCLA, South Carolina and Vanderbilt are currently listed as No. 1 seeds, with Texas dropping to fifth in the rankings after its loss to Vanderbilt. Some of the top 16 rankings make sense, but some decisions feel a little off. Let's look at the four most contentious decisions.
Rank | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
1 | UConn | 25-0 |
2 | UCLA | 23-1 |
3 | South Carolina | 24-2 |
4 | Vanderbilt | 22-2 |
5 | Texas | 22-2 |
6 | Michigan | 20-4 |
7 | Louisville | 22-4 |
8 | LSU | 22-3 |
9 | Ohio State | 22-3 |
10 | Duke | 18-6 |
11 | Iowa | 18-5 |
12 | TCU | 21-4 |
13 | Maryland | 19-6 |
14 | Michigan State | 20-4 |
15 | Ole Miss | 19-5 |
16 | Oklahoma | 17-5 |
UConn lands at No. 1 despite UCLA's Quad 1 advantage
It kind of feels like the committee has unfairly ranked UConn lower in recent seasons due to the team's weak Big East schedule. The team hasn't been given a No. 1 seed since 2021, yet the Huskies have made at least the Final Four in three of the last four seasons.
But not only is UConn cruising for a No. 1 seed, it's cruising for the overall No. 1 seed. This isn't unexpected — it's what I anticipated from this poll release — but it's also not without some controversy.
Because yes — the Huskies are the undefeated defending champions, but one-loss UCLA arguably has the better resume.
Overall Record | Quad 1 Record | |
|---|---|---|
UConn | 27-0 | 6-0 |
UCLA | 24-1 | 14-1 |
UCLA has a loss, but it also has 14 Quad 1 wins, while UConn has only played six Quad 1 opponents. UCLA is a more tested team at this point, but the committee is taking the easy path and putting UConn in the No. 1 spot. This isn't necessarily the wrong move, but it's interesting to note that, for example, LSU landed behind Michigan in part because LSU had played 12 Quad 4 games, showing how weak its non-conference schedule was. UConn isn't far behind, though, playing 11 Quad 4 teams already.
Vanderbilt enters the top four
It was, what, three days ago that I predicted the top 16 reveal and had Texas at No. 4, followed by an assertion that the top four felt locked in already. Then, hours after I said that, Vanderbilt upset the Longhorns. The official top 16 reveal dropped Texas to fifth, while Vanderbilt moved up to fourth.
It's the right move.
I was hesitant to move Vanderbilt up past No. 6 when I wrote that piece. Yes, the Commodores had a head-to-head win over LSU, but the Tigers had wins over Texas and Duke on their resume, and I figured Vanderbilt would probably lose that night to Texas anyway. I was wrong.
Let me repeat that: I was wrong!
Vanderbilt didn't just beat Texas. The Commodores completely controlled the game and exposed the biggest weakness that Texas has, which is its inability to shoot its way back into games. Texas ranks last in Division I in percentage of points coming from behind the 3-point line, which is definitely an issue against a team like Vanderbilt.
Feb. 12 | 3PA | 3PM |
|---|---|---|
Texas | 15 | 3 |
Vanderbilt | 19 | 9 |
Texas might still be the better team, but we just saw the formula for beating the Longhorns. Sure, it requires having a Mikayla Blakes-type scorer who can take over games, but the fact that there is a formula for beating Texas is a bad sign for the Horns' championship hopes.
Why was LSU only at No. 8?
Remember: this reveal came before LSU lost to South Carolina on Saturday night. Prior to that loss, I would have had LSU comfortably in sixth.
Now, would moving LSU down to No. 8 after that loss make sense? Sure, though I don't think I would have done it. Landing behind Michigan makes some sense, but I'm shocked that the Tigers are behind Louisville.
Yes, the Cardinals have more Quad 1 wins, but both teams built their resumes on weak non-conference showings. LSU's losses this year are to three teams in the top five of the committee's seeding and Kentucky; Louisville's losses were to two of the top five, Kentucky and Duke, which is playing the best basketball of any ACC team right now. LSU has better wins than Louisville and is higher in the NET.
Is Maryland too high?
I wasn't personally shocked to see Maryland come in at No. 13 considering I predicted Maryland would come in at No. 13, but opinion online seems to be divided on the Terrapins, so let's dive into their placement.
Pros: Maryland is 15th in the NET and has five Quad 1 wins, more than Michigan State, Oklahoma and Ole Miss. The team has wins over Michigan State and Kentucky.
Cons: The team has five Quad 1 losses plus a Quad 2 loss, and was blown out by UCLA, losing by 30 last month.
I get the tendency to look for things to complain about, but I find it hard to really take issue with where Maryland is ranked. You could probably argue about Michigan State or Ole Miss belonging ahead of the Terps, but they're a four seed with the resume of a four seed. Personally, 13th feels right.