On Saturday, the NCAA will release its list of the current top 16 seeds for the NCAA Tournament. We already know some things to expect, like the fact that UConn, the only undefeated team remaining in the nation, will be the No. 1 overall seed.
But what about the rest of the top 16, especially the final few teams? Remember: a top four seed in the tournament is even more important for the women's tournament than the men's tournament, as the top 16 women's teams will get to host the first and second rounds.
Projected WBB top 16 reveal
1. UConn
2. UCLA
3. South Carolina
4. Texas
5. LSU
6. Vanderbilt
7. Michigan
8. Louisville
9. Ohio State
10. Duke
11. Iowa
12. TCU
13. Maryland
14. Oklahoma
15. Michigan State
16. Ole Miss
The No. 1 seeds are clear
Order might change, but Texas' big win last week over LSU was probably the final nail in the coffin for any other program that thought it could climb into rank of the elites. Barring a complete meltdown from one or more of these teams, the top four we get on Saturday will be the top four we get when the bracket is officially revealed in March.
UConn. UCLA. South Carolina. Texas. The order may change, especially between the two SEC schools, but there's no reason to think anyone climbs into that group. Just look at the difference in Quad 1 games between the top four and LSU, their closest competitor for a No. 1 seed.
Team | Quad 1 Record |
|---|---|
UConn | 6-0 |
UCLA | 14-1 |
South Carolina | 6-2 |
Texas | 8-2 |
LSU | 4-3 |
These teams have clearly separated from the rest of the field. That's not to say LSU, Vanderbilt or Michigan aren't all capable of getting hot and winning a title, but it does mean they'll have to do it as No. 2 seeds, not No. 1 seeds.
Duke won't be a top-eight team yet, but it's coming
The rise of the Blue Devils continues to be one of the best stories in the nation. Written off after a horrible non-conference performance, Duke has dominated in ACC play, starting 13-0 and sitting second in the conference in offensive rating and first in defensive rating thanks to the strong play of players like Toby Fournier.
Based on what we're seeing out of Duke right now, I think the team keeps destroying the rest of the ACC field and lands at No. 8 in the final seeding.
I just don't think we see them there quite yet. The non-conference performance and a 4-5 mark in Quad 1 games drag the Blue Devils just enough for them to land at No. 10, but the window is open for future movement up, especially after a presumed second win over Louisville in the conference tournament.
The battle for the final spot
As mentioned in the intro, landing a top 16 spot is hugely important, since it means starting the NCAA Tournament at home. Not all 16 teams will advance to the Sweet Sixteen, but it's certainly easier to win at home than on a neutral court.
Right now, I'm predicting Ole Miss lands there. The Rebels are No. 18 in the NET right now and No. 14 in the latest AP poll, so it makes sense to give them the spot. The only teams higher in the NET to not land a projected top 16 spot are Minnesota (10th) and Kentucky (16th), and the Golden Gophers are unranked while the Wildcats are No. 18 and have been backsliding lately.
Meanwhile, only one team ranked ahead of Ole Miss in the AP poll misses out on a spot, and that's Baylor, which sits at No. 12 in the nation but is only 26th in the NET.
Now, I do think the Bears have a valid shot of getting No. 16, and very much could have it Saturday if the team beats TCU on Thursday night. That's the danger of writing this when I'm writing it, as information is a little incomplete, you know? A Baylor win over the Horned Frogs would be huge, though I ultimately think the team would still be far enough back in the NET that the ranking committee wouldn't give the Bears a top 16 spot.
One other relevant question: Does Michigan State hold on to one of these spots? The Spartans are 20-5 on the season, but have dropped three of their last four, all against ranked teams. That includes a 23-point loss on Wednesday against UCLA. I don't think the Spartans drop below 16th yet, but they end the regular season with road games against Michigan and Minnesota as well as a home contest against Ohio State, so their spot may not be safe long-term, even if they're in the top 16 on Saturday.