At the end of non-conference play, there are usually a lot of teams that believe they're contenders. With many power conference teams playing relatively light non-conference schedules, it can be easy to hit January with only a loss or two on the resume. Sometimes, it's a sign your team really is for real, but other times...
January tends to hit hard. The nightly reality of an SEC or Big Ten schedule catches up to you and suddenly you're exiting the month with five losses on your resume. You're no longer thinking about a title and instead are hoping to salvage a Sweet 16 run out of things. These four teams currently find themselves in that exact scenario.
Texas Tech
Texas Tech was one of the final undefeated teams left in the nation, with the Red Raiders not suffering their first defeat until Jan. 17. Since that game, Tech is just 1-3, though, and has quickly gone from a Big 12 contender to a team that's hoping it can turn things around in time before they get too bad.
The latest loss to Iowa State is especially concerning. The Cyclones have mostly been figured out with Addy Brown sidelined, losing five in a row before bouncing back with wins against two of the Big 12's worst teams. Texas Tech, though, couldn't figure out how to slow them down, with Audi Crooks scoring 33 points in a 14-point Cyclones victory.
No one expected Texas Tech to be as good as it's been this season. Maybe part of these recent struggles is simply that the Red Raiders actually aren't as good as they once looked. That's not to say this is a bad team or anything, but it's probably somewhere between the 20th and 35th-best team in the nation instead of being a team that could earn a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Tennessee
Last season, led by Talaysia Cooper and Jewel Spear, Tennessee had what might have been its best offensive season ever. Its 86.6 points per game were its most of this millennium and its fourth-most ever, but when factoring in the change in competition level since the 80s and 90s, it really felt like the beginning of something big for the Vols.
That hasn't been the case. Even after adding transfer Janiah Barker to the lineup, Tennessee's scoring has dropped to 78.4 points per game. The defense has improved to offset that some, but the defense has faltered at times, allowing over 75 points five times. Tennessee is 1-4 in those games.
That's the big issue right now. If the defense plays well, Tennessee is fine, but when the defense gets beat, the offense hasn't had the juice to keep up. With games against UConn and South Carolina coming up soon, we're probably going to get definitive proof that this team isn't a contender.
Kentucky
I've been very high on this Kentucky team all season. Clara Strack has done a great job as the focal point of the offense, and Tonie Morgan has been one of the best ball-handlers in the SEC. The team picked up big wins over Louisville, LSU and Oklahoma earlier in the year.
But we can't ignore three consecutive losses. Sure, two of those losses were to ranked teams and both of those defeats were competitive, but still...three in a row is tough, especially when looking at trends. Those losses give Kentucky five on the season, and it's hard to win a women's title when you're a five-loss team.
Champions with five or more losses | |
|---|---|
2011 Texas A&M | 33-5 |
1991 Tennessee | 30-5 |
1987 Tennessee | 28-6 |
The Wildcats are trying to do something done just one time this century in a year with a clear quintet of title contenders. Safe to say it's probably not happening.
Maryland
Speaking of three-game losing streaks, we have Maryland, which has dropped its last three and four of its last five.
Like Kentucky, the Terps have been competitive, losing two of those games in overtime. Heck, the loss to Washington earlier this week went to double overtime, and the team's five losses have all been to pretty good teams. Still, the "losing five or more times is essentially a death sentence for your title hopes" still applies here.
Additionally, we have one very good piece of evidence that Maryland doesn't have that extra gear it needs to be a contender: a 30-point loss to UCLA to start this current losing streak.
This is a good offensive team, led by players like Yarden Garzon and Oluchi Okananwa. However, the team ranks just 49th in defensive rating, and the top teams are going to continue to tear this defense apart in big games.