About a month ago, I took a guess at who the 16 teams that would host the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament would be. Some of those predictions aged well. Others, like penciling Iowa State in as a No. 3 seed, did not age well.
With an extra month of basketball under our belts, we have a better idea of what the NCAA Tournament field will look like. Let's take stock of who the top four seeds are set to be in March Madness based on everything we've seen so far.
Region 1: Fort Worth
UConn (1)
The Huskies are the only undefeated team left in Division I and look set to cruise to an undefeated finish to the season with that zero still in the loss column. The final realistic chance for UConn to lose — because let's be real here, the Big East is too weak for the Huskies to lose a conference game — was against Tennessee this past weekend and UConn won that one by 30.
Led by Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd, the Huskies have just one win by fewer than 10 points, a three-point victory over Michigan back in November. Other than that, UConn has barely been tested even with games against teams like Lousville, Ohio State and Iowa.
Michigan (2)
Speaking of Michigan, the Wolverines have been one of the nation's most interesting teams. They have the seventh-best net rating in the country and two of their three losses are three-point defeats to teams projected to rank above them in the seeding order. The only real blemish was a surprise loss to Washington on New Year's Day.
The sophomore trio of Olivia Olson, Syla Swords and Mila Holloway might not win a championship this season, but Michigan is right there at the top of the second tier of teams, and if this core stays together for two more seasons while continuing to add other talent around them, don't be shocked if Michigan cuts down the nets in 2027 or 2028.
Ohio State (3)
I didn't mean to make this region so much fun, but it sets up something that would be a great storyline: a game between rivals Michigan and Ohio State to decide which gets a shot at a rematch against UConn.
Jaloni Cambridge | PPG | FG% | APG |
|---|---|---|---|
2024-25 | 15.4 | 42.9 | 3.9 |
2025-26 | 22.5 | 51.2 | 4.5 |
The Buckeyes have been led by breakout star Jaloni Cambridge, whose second college season has seen her bloom into one of the best scorers in the nation. While the team has some bad losses on its resume — a 32-point loss to UConn and a 21-point loss to Iowa — it also has wins over TCU and Maryland while boasting the No. 12 scoring offense in the country.
Duke (4)
Who would have thought after the first month or so of the season that we'd be discussing Duke not only as a team that's clearly in the field, but as one that's likely going to wind up as a first-round host?
The Blue Devils got off to an awful start. Through the first nine games of the season, the team was 3-6, and the wins were over Holy Cross, Norfolk State and Liberty. Sure, three of the six defeats were against South Carolina, UCLA and LSU, but that doesn't excuse the other losses.
But since ACC play began, the Blue Devils have been rolling. Looking just at conference games, the team is third in the ACC in offensive rating and first in defensive rating. We knew the defense would step up, but there were questions about Duke finding enough offense. Toby Fournier's breakout has negated those concerns.
Region 2: Sacramento
UCLA (1)
The SEC is a tough conference. So is the Big Ten, but it's not quite the nightly prize fight that the SEC is, which is why UCLA has emerged as the team best positioned to be the No. 2 overall seed: it's not losing games in conference play.
The Bruins have arguably the deepest starting lineup in the nation, with ever starter capable of putting up 20 points aside from Charlisse Leger-Walker, who makes up for it by being one of the best ball-handlers in the country. The team has nine double-digit wins in a row at the moment, including wins over USC, Maryland and Iowa in that stretch.
Vanderbilt (2)
Vanderbilt was never going to finish SEC play undefeated, but that shouldn't take away from how impressive this season has been. The Commodores currently have just two losses as well as owning two of the best wins of the season: victories over LSU and Michigan.
Mikayla Blakes is one of the nation's best players. Aubrey Galvan is one of the best freshmen. Together, they've got this team rolling. This offense has the capacity to win a shootout against virtually anyone.
Oklahoma (3)
The Sooners are a weird team. They push the pace so hard that it leads to what's probably the biggest disparity between raw and pace-adjusted defensive numbers, with OU ranking 176th in scoring defense while allowing the ninth-fewest points per 100 possessions.
Oklahoma 2025-25 | PPG | Opponent PPG | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Division I rank | 4th | 176th | 32nd | 9th |
Oklahoma is 1-5 against teams with a top 20 Her Hoop Stats rating, but the lone win was an impressive overtime victory over South Carolina. The offense tends to get bogged down against good teams, but on occasion, things go right. That might not be a great sign for Oklahoma's title hopes, but it's also not a great sign for their opponent in something like the Sweet Sixteen.
Ole Miss (4)
Pretty weird season for Ole Miss, but that should have been expected considering how much of this team was built in the transfer portal. It takes time to get things firing on all cylinders, so losses to Kansas State and Georgia aren't too shocking to see.
But when the Rebels are on, they're on, as the team has defeated Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt so far this year. Will this unevenness be an issue in the tournament? Maybe, but don't count Ole Miss out as a potential Elite Eight team.
Region 3: Fort Worth
Texas (1)
Texas looked like the clear No. 2 team in the nation after November wins over South Carolina and UCLA. The team has cooled off a bit since and lost back-to-back games last month against LSU and South Carolina, but this is still a team with a championship ceiling.
If anything could derail Texas, it's that the team basically refuses to shoot 3-pointers. Just 13.6 percent of the team's points come from deep, the lowest rate in Division I, but the Horns make up for it by having the 10th-best 2-point field goal percentage in the nation.
Louisville (2)
It's been a down year for the ACC, but Louisville has managed to carry the weight of the whole conference, with the team posting the 11th-best net rating in the nation.
The biggest concern here? It's that Louisville might just be benefiting from getting to play ACC teams. The team has played four non-conference opponents with a top 25 Her Hoop Stats rating, going 1-3 in those games, though one loss was a very competitive two-point defeat against South Carolina.
Iowa (3)
It looks like Iowa's not quite as good as it once looked after back-to-back losses to USC and UCLA — the latter being a 23-point defeat — but this is still a fun basketball team that no one should willingly want to face.
Defense is an issue, with the team ranking just 146th in defensive rating, but the Hawkeyes have the personnel to win shootouts against most of the teams in the country.
Kentucky (4)
The Wildcats have hit a rough patch, losing three in a row before righting the ship with a 20-point win over Arkansas. With Vanderbilt and Texas up next, though, Kentucky might see its chances of earning a top-four seed end very soon.
For now, though, the team holds on to a spot based on its overall resume, including wins over LSU and Louisville as well as a defense that's holding opponents to the 11th-lowest field goal percentage in the nation.
Region 4: Sacramento
South Carolina (1)
South Carolina is currently in the worst spot of the projected No. 1 seeds. In a year with five true title contenders, landing the fourth No. 1 seed also lands you the misfortune of having to beat one of those five teams to even make the Final Four.
Unfortunately for South Carolina, its loss to Oklahoma is, so far, the worst loss of the No. 1 seeds. With the teams all packed so tightly, that alone is probably enough to drop the Gamecocks below Texas since the two have split their meetings so far. A potential SEC Tournament game between the two teams might be the deciding factor between which lands in this region and which lands in Region 3.
LSU (2)
LSU's weak non-conference schedule likely means that the Tigers can't afford more than one more regular-season loss plus need an SEC Tournament win over either Texas or South Carolina to move up to the one-line, but make no mistake: this is a team that could win it all.
Adding freshmen Grace Knox and ZaKiyah Johnson plus transfer guard MiLaysia Fulwiley to a team led by Flau'jae Johnson and Mikaylah Williams has been a recipe for success, and the Tigers two losses to Kentucky and Vanderbilt were by a combined six points. The team already has one win over Texas and gets another shot at the Longhorns on Thursday.
Michigan State (3)
The Spartans had a shot to stake claim to a No. 2 seed this week against in-state rival Michigan, but the team fell shy with an overtime loss.
This has been one of the best offenses in the nation, scoring 0.99 points per play, the fifth-best mark in Division I. Defense is a concern, but maybe it's time to blame the bad defense for Big Ten teams not on the individual teams' struggling on that end, but more on the fact that the conference has so many good offenses.
TCU (4)
The Big 12 is deep this year, which is why the teams have beaten each other up so much that only one Big 12 team is currently projected to land a top-four seed. That team is TCU, and even its spot feels tentative after the Horned Frogs just lost to Texas Tech after just barely sneaking past Kansas.
Olivia Miles | PPG | TRB | AST | STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2024-25 | 15.4 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 1.4 |
2025-26 | 19.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 1.8 |
Head coach Mark Campbell has done a masterful job this season despite a ton of turnover from last year's squad. Olivia Miles has been incredible this year, averaging 19.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 1.8 steals per game.