Bracketology: 2 huge wins could move Indiana off the bubble

The first Bubble Watch of February is a good time to really check in on the state of the bubble itself with just about six weeks to Selection Sunday. The consolidation of talent in power conferences has made it tougher for true mid-majors to put together bubble-worthy resumes, meaning the last few spots will likely be fought for between the middle class of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC.

One team firmly on the rise is Indiana, which has made a good impression for itself with strong wins over a ranked Purdue team and at UCLA last week. Where do the Hoosiers land on this week's edition of Bubble Watch? Read on to find out, but first here's a quick reminder of the foundational rules of the column.

1. All records are through the conclusion of action on Tuesday of the given week, in this case Feb. 3.
2. All metrics are also current through the conclusion of action on Tuesday.
3. Any team currently leading its conference is not eligible for bubble watch since they will be assumed to have their league's automatic bid to the tournament for the purposes of this exercise.
4. Strength of schedule figures are based on KenPom's totals. Strength Of Schedule and Non Conference Strength Of Schedule will be short-handed to SOS and NCSOS in each team's description.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four Byes

Indiana Hoosiers

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 15-8 (6-6)
• SOS: 39
• NCSOS: 292
• Last Game: L 75-69 At USC
• Next Game: Vs. Wisconsin 2/7

The two huge victories Indiana scored last week got them back into the field and above the First Four for now, but dropping the finale of the Southern California swing to USC means they aren't quite safe yet. Saturday's home game against Wisconsin figures to be tricky but is one the Hoosiers ought to get as an aspiring March Madness entrant.

SMU Mustangs

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 15-7 (4-5)
• SOS: 28
• NCSOS: 141
• Last Game: L 84-83 Vs. NC State
• Next Game: At Pitt 2/7

Strong scheduling numbers have done a lot to keep SMU in the field and they have a trio of solid wins (over SEC-leading Texas A&M, North Carolina and Virginia Tech) to work with as well as no bad losses. That is a formula for making the field and if they take care of business against the ACC's worst teams, such as Saturday's trip to Pitt, the Mustangs should have little to worry about.

New Mexico Lobos

• Conference: Mountain West
• Record: 18-4 (9-2)
• SOS: 98
• NCSOS: 147
• Last Game: W 90-80 At San Jose State
• Next Game: Vs. Utah State 2/4

Beating bad teams is necessary work for mid-majors to stay on the right side of the bubble and New Mexico's 10-point win at San Jose State over the weekend was good work. Wednesday's visit from Utah State, which is in strong position to go to the dance themselves, represents a huge opportunity for the Lobos to add a Quad 1 victory to their ledger to enhance their profile.

UCLA Bruins

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 16-7 (8-4)
• SOS: 61
• NCSOS: 280
• Last Game: W 98-66 Vs. Rutgers
• Next Game: Vs. Washington 2/7

Tyler Bilodeau's buzzer-beater against Purdue may be the thing keeping the Bruins in the field right now since the rest of UCLA's resume is very bubbly, loaded with home wins and not much substance. Saturday's home date against Washington is the last respite before a stretch that could define UCLA's season with a trip to the Michigan schools, a home date with Illinois, two matchups against USC and a visit from Nebraska to end the regular season.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four In

USC Trojans

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 17-6 (6-6)
• SOS: 32
• NCSOS: 205
• Last Game: W 81-75 Vs. Indiana
• Next Game: At Penn State 2/8

Getting a win over Indiana could be very helpful for USC, which has a bad loss at home to Northwestern now sitting on its team sheet. The Trojans now have to fly east at the end of the week for a trip to Penn State and Ohio State, which has little to gain for them and plenty to lose.

Texas Longhorns

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 14-9 (5-5)
• SOS: 17
• NCSOS: 297
• Last Game: W 84-75 Vs. South Carolina
• Next Game: Vs. Ole Miss 2/7

There is a lot to like about Texas, which three good wins and no bad losses on its ledger, but the problem they may run into is that they've already lost nine times in 23 games, which is a lot to carry. The good news is that the Longhorns have dealt with most of the SEC's toughest teams already, giving them a chance to stack a few more victories down the stretch to stay just ahead of the cut line.

Santa Clara Broncos

• Conference: WCC
• Record: 19-5 (10-1)
• SOS: 99
• NCSOS: 83
• Last Game: W 104-73 At Loyola Marymount
• Next Game: At Pacific 2/4

The Broncos figure to be the true test case of what the committee values this year as a mid-major that will have a gaudy record and passes the eye test without the opportunities to stack the Quad 1 victories power conference schools get. Losing by a point to Saint Louis and beating Saint Mary's already shows that Santa Clara can hang with the big boys, and they have to hope that their early win over Nevada continues to improve as the Wolf Pack have begun to climb the Mountain West standings.

Ohio State Buckeyes

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 14-7 (6-5)
• SOS: 50
• NCSOS: 286
• Last Game: L 92-82 At Wisconsin
• Next Game: At Maryland 2/5

The last team in the field this week is Ohio State, which really wishes it had back road losses at Pitt and Washington right now. After Thursday's trip to Maryland the Buckeyes have a big opportunity to add liquid gold to their resume with No. 2 Michigan coming to Columbus on Sunday as part of a run of seven consecutive games against potential tournament teams that may make or break their season.

March Madness Bubble Watch - First Four Out

Miami (FL) Hurricanes

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 17-5 (6-3)
• SOS: 118
• NCSOS: 336
• Last Game: L 86-85 Vs. California
• Next Game: At Boston College 2/7

Losing at home to Cal drops Miami out of the field for now as a bad non-conference schedule and lack of good wins (the Hurricanes' top win is against Stanford, which dropped off the page this week) makes them a very suspect group. Due to a quirk in the ACC's schedule the Hurricanes also don't get a shot at Duke this year, which they could have really used as an opportunity to add a signature win for their resume.

Seton Hall Pirates

• Conference: Big East
• Record: 16-6 (6-5)
• SOS: 77
• NCSOS: 293
• Last Game: W 69-64 Vs. Marquette
• Next Game: At Villanova 2/4

The Pirates have stabilized after a four-game Big East skid dropped them out of the field, winning back-to-back home games to get back above .500 in league play. This year's Big East offers few opportunities to improve your resume, making Wednesday night's trip to Villanova a must-get for Seton Hall if they want to maintain a shot at giving the conference four teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Virginia Tech Hokies

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 16-7 (5-5)
• SOS: 59
• NCSOS: 198
• Last Game: L 72-58 Vs. No. 4 Duke
• Next Game: At NC State 2/7

The Hokies were never really a threat against No. 4 Duke on Saturday, but their home win over Virginia is a lot better than anything Miami has to offer at this juncture of the season. A road trip to NC State on Saturday is certainly more gettable for Virginia Tech, which could push itself above the cutline with a road win over the Wolfpack.

Missouri Tigers

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 15-7 (5-4)
• SOS: 79
• NCSOS: 347
• Last Game: W 84-79 Vs. Mississippi State
• Next Game: At South Carolina 2/7

When you are hovering near the cutline in the SEC, adding seven losses to a non-conference strength of schedule near 350 (with a loss to Notre Dame to boot) is not a recipe for inclusion in the field of 68. Missouri's two wins over Florida (by a bucket) and at Kentucky to kick off league play are doing all of the work for the Tigers right now as they really need more good wins to get out of this range.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Next Four Out

California Golden Bears

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 16-6 (4-5)
• SOS: 74
• NCSOS: 324
• Last Game: W 86-85 At Miami (FL)
• Next Game: Vs. Georgia Tech 2/4

The road win at Miami was massive for the Golden Bears, who would have fallen off the page if they got swept on the ACC's Florida trip. A big opportunity awaits Cal on Saturday as they welcome No. 20 Clemson to Berkeley, but first they must take care of business against Georgia Tech on Wednesday night.

George Mason Patriots

• Conference: Atlantic 10
• Record: 20-2 (8-1)
• SOS: 223
• NCSOS: 333
• Last Game: W 77-73 At St. Bonaventure
• Next Game: Vs. Duquesne 2/4

Bubble teams are nervously watching the A-10 right now, where Saint Louis feels like a lock to get at least an at-large, knowing that a 20-2 George Mason team could steal the league's auto bid. The only losses the Patriots have suffered thus far came at Virginia Tech and Rhode Island, with the latter being a potential problem given poor scheduling numbers, but if they keep stacking wins it will be a hard case to ignore regardless of how metrics feel about the Patriots.

TCU Horned Frogs

• Conference: Big 12
• Record: 13-9 (3-6)
• SOS: 55
• NCSOS: 332
• Last Game: L 87-61 At Colorado
• Next Game: Vs. Kansas State 2/7

The Horned Frogs are still here thanks to wins over Florida and Wisconsin on a neutral floor in November, but those games are beginning to look like outliers compared to what TCU actually is. Losing by 26 at Colorado is a very bad look for TCU, which already has nine losses and still has a decent slate of Big 12 opponents to navigate to get onto the right side of the bubble.

VCU Rams

• Conference: Atlantic 10
• Record: 17-6 (8-2)
• SOS: 113
• NCSOS: 291
• Last Game: W 63-59 At Fordham
• Next Game: Vs. Dayton 2/6

It feels unlikely that the A-10 can get three teams in but we should keep an eye on VCU, which has won six in a row and still has games with both Saint Louis and George Mason left on its schedule. The Rams do hold a win over Virginia Tech which could prove useful but they really need to get at least one game against the Atlantic 10's top dogs to push further towards an at-large.

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