Bracketology: Why bubble watch is all about Miami, NC State and the ACC

Despite being one of the Power 4 conferences in college sports, the ACC has played the role of punching bag for casual fans of college basketball. While Duke has maintained their traditional dominance even after Mike Krzyzewski's retirement, the rest of the conference has struggled to carry its weight, failing to send more than five teams to the NCAA Tournament since 2021.

That era has also included controversial entries for teams like North Carolina in 2025 and Virginia in 2024, who were given some of the last at-large bids into the field and flopped with their opportunities. The ACC was trending more towards the level of the Big East, which has hovered around a five-bid ceiling for a while, and the Mountain West, which infamously got six bids in 2024 compared to five for the ACC.

That should change this season as the ACC is on the upswing with the league's middle class beginning to step up, earning big results like Stanford's victory over North Carolina and big turnarounds for the likes of Miami and Virginia Tech. The conference should be a dominant figure in this year's Bubble Watch conversations, placing four teams in this week's edition, which we'll dive into momentarily after a reminder of key principles of this column.

1. All records are through the conclusion of action on Tuesday of the given week, in this case Jan. 20.
2. All metrics are also current through the conclusion of action on Tuesday.
3. Any team currently leading its conference is not eligible for bubble watch since they will be assumed to have their league's automatic bid to the tournament for the purposes of this exercise.
4. Strength of schedule figures are based on KenPom's totals. Strength Of Schedule and Non Conference Strength Of Schedule will be short-handed to SOS and NCSOS in each team's description.

Bubble Watch: Last four byes

Miami Hurricanes

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 15-4 (4-2)
• SOS: 188
• NCSOS: 341
• Last Game: L 65-63 Vs. Florida State
• Next Game: At Syracuse 1/24

There are a lot of empty calorie wins on Miami's ledger, making the addition of a two-point home loss to Florida State that checks in last in the ACC a bit problematic. The best win on the Hurricanes' profile right now is a true road win at Ole Miss, but they still have a lot of time to stack good results in league play to push themselves further up the seed line.

Texas A&M Aggies

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 14-4 (4-1)
• SOS: 111
• NCSOS: 331
• Last Game: W 74-70 At Texas
• Next Game: Vs. Mississippi State 1/21

A very weak non-conference schedule could be an impediment for the Aggies, who will need to do their best work in league play. Scoring road wins over SEC bubblers like Auburn and Texas is a good start and taking care of business at home this week against Mississippi State and South Carolina will ensure that Texas A&M at least maintains this positioning entering next week.

Seton Hall Pirates

• Conference: Big East
• Record: 14-5 (4-4)
• SOS: 60
• NCSOS: 285
• Last Game: L 65-60 At St. John's
• Next Game: At DePaul 1/24

There has been some slippage from Seton Hall, which has dropped three in a row in league play while missing opportunities to secure meaningful wins for their resume against UCONN and St. John's. A key win over NC State in Maui isn't aging well since the Wolfpack have stumbled to the bubble themselves, leaving the Pirates in need of meaningful victories against a Big East that may not have many to offer.

Ohio State Buckeyes

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 13-5 (5-3)
• SOS: 52
• NCSOS: 287
• Last Game: W 82-74 Vs. Minnesota
• Next Game: At No. 3 Michigan 1/23

So far so good for Ohio State, which missed the NCAA Tournament last year after stacking up too many losses and is only four victories away from matching their 2024-25 win total. Losses at Pitt and Washington aren't great but they have an opportunity to score a massive result for their resume with a road trip to No. 3 Michigan on tap in a primetime slot on FOX Friday night.

Bubble Watch: Last four in

NC State

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 13-6 (4-2)
• SOS: 37
• NCSOS: 75
• Last Game: W 80-76 At No. 18 Clemson
• Next Game: At Pitt 1/24

The Wolfpack got a huge victory at No. 18 Clemson to add a signature win to their ledger, snapping the Tigers' nine-game winning streak in the process. The schedule numbers are a tremendous aid to NC State's resume and they should remain in a good spot if they can avoid bad losses in league play.

New Mexico Lobos

• Conference: Mountain West
• Record: 14-4 (5-2)
• SOS: 89
• NCSOS: 130
• Last Game: L 83-79 At San Diego State
• Next Game: Vs. Fresno State 1/21

Falling at San Diego State is not a bad defeat for the Lobos but in a down Mountain West it counts as a missed opportunity to separate themselves from the Aztecs. Wins over Santa Clara and at VCU continue to be big positives for New Mexico, which has to work on avoiding landmines in league play until they get a shot at Utah State in early February.

Santa Clara Broncos

• Conference: WCC
• Record: 16-5 (7-1)
• SOS: 96
• NCSOS: 83
• Last Game: W 62-54 Vs. Saint Mary's
• Next Game: At San Diego 1/24

Predictive metrics are very high on the Broncos and they earned their best win of the season with an eight-point victory over perennial NCAA Tournament team Saint Mary's over the weekend. The lone loss the Broncos have in league play came at Gonzaga and their tough showing in a one-point loss to Saint Louis earlier this season makes Santa Clara a team to track over the next two months.

USC Trojans

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 14-4 (3-4)
• SOS: 30
• NCSOS: 199
• Last Game: L 69-64 Vs. No. 5 Purdue
• Next Game: Vs. Northwestern 1/21

The strength of schedule rating is a bit deceptive for USC, which has already played three of the Big Ten's top teams (Purdue, Michigan and Michigan State), getting blown out by the Michigan schools on the road while narrowly losing to Purdue at home. The Trojans don't play any of them again, leaving games against Nebraska and Illinois as their best chance to earn signature wins to pull themselves out of this range of the bracket.

Bubble Watch: First four out

Texas Longhorns

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 11-7 (2-3)
• SOS: 47
• NCSOS: 293
• Last Game: L 74-70 Vs. Texas A&M
• Next Game: At Kentucky 1/21

The Longhorns were building positive momentum with a huge road win at Alabama before handing Vanderbilt its first loss of the season, but that came to a halt with a home defeat to fellow bubbler Texas A&M. A road trip to resurgent Kentucky won't be easy for Texas, which will try to use their size advantage to bounce back.

Virginia Tech Hokies

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 14-5 (3-3)
• SOS: 69
• NCSOS: 190
• Last Game: W 89-76 Vs. Notre Dame
• Next Game: At Syracuse 1/21

The rivalry win over Virginia is doing a lot of work for Virginia Tech's resume, which carries that result as its lone Quad 1 win and has good schedule metrics backing it. Losses to Stanford and SMU could hurt the Hokies if they end up in head-to-head comparisons with them in crunch time, making their upcoming trip to Syracuse and slumping No. 23 Louisville this week one they really should sweep.

Baylor Bears

• Conference: Big 12
• Record: 11-7 (1-5)
• SOS: 13
• NCSOS: 192
• Last Game: L 92-73 Vs. No. 12 Texas Tech
• Next Game: Vs. TCU 1/24

The 1-5 record to start Big 12 play is not ideal but four of those losses came to teams that are currently ranked, meaning Scott Drew's fully rebuilt team has had to navigate a gauntlet early in league play. The fifth defeat came to fellow bubbler TCU on the road, which the Bears have a chance to avenge when the Horned Frogs come to Waco on Saturday afternoon.

Stanford Cardinal

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 14-5 (3-3)
• SOS: 64
• NCSOS: 218
• Last Game: L 80-50 Vs. No. 6 Duke
• Next Game: Vs. California 1/24

Losing by 30 to Duke at home was not a good look for the Cardinal, who appeared to be building positive momentum towards their first NCAA Tournament bid since 2014 after beating North Carolina at home. A few bad losses are dragging down Stanford's NET, which sits at 68, and they only have one game left against a ranked ACC opponent (Clemson) to try and push things forward.

Bubble Watch: Next four out

UCLA Bruins

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 13-6 (5-3)
• SOS: 46
• NCSOS: 291
• Last Game: W 69-67 Vs. No. 4 Purdue
• Next Game: Vs. Northwestern 1/24

A late three from Tyler Bilodeau with eight seconds to go helped the Bruins earn their best win of the season, upsetting No. 4 Purdue by a bucket at home, and UCLA will happily point to that result as justification for inclusion into the NCAA Tournament. That win did come at home, however, and UCLA has only won twice away from Pauley Pavilion (against Big Ten bottom feeders Washington and Penn State), which is problematic since the Bruins will not have home games in the dance.

Missouri Tigers

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 13-6 (3-3)
• SOS: 98
• NCSOS: 350
• Last Game: L 74-72 Vs. No. 21 Georgia
• Next Game: Vs. Oklahoma 1/24

A two-game losing skid in the SEC has the Tigers on the wrong side of the bubble as it drops them to six losses overall and magnifies one of their biggest weaknesses: an absolutely pathetic non-conference schedule. Missouri scheduled very lightly outside of the league, losing to the only two potential tournament teams on it (Kansas and Illinois) by a combined 63 points and adding a terrible defeat to Notre Dame as well, meaning they need to really clean up in SEC play to end up on the right side of the cut line.

Indiana Hoosiers

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 12-7 (3-5)
• SOS: 50
• NCSOS: 298
• Last Game: L 86-72 At No. 3 Michigan
• Next Game: At Rutgers 1/23

No one in the state of Indiana may be happier that Curt Cignetti's football program won the national championship than Darian DeVries, whose basketball team is on a four-game losing skid after getting outclassed by three of the Big Ten's top programs and losing by 17 to Iowa at home. A soft non-conference schedule is also hurting the Hoosiers, who have an 0-6 record in Quad 1 games that they need to change quickly to escape this range of the bubble.

LSU Tigers

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 13-6 (1-5)
• SOS: 90
• NCSOS: 290
• Last Game: L 79-61 At No. 16 Florida
• Next Game: At No. 20 Arkansas 1/24

A common theme in this section of Bubble Watch is poor non-conference scheduling, which helped LSU stack up a gaudy 12-1 record entering SEC play. The Tigers' lone loss in there was by 14 to Texas Tech, which may have foreshadowed a 1-5 start to league play where LSU looks severely outclassed, leaving them in jeopardy of dropping off the page by this time next week if they can't win at No. 20 Arkansas on Saturday.

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