Bracketology: Kentucky, Indiana stressing the latest Bubble Watch

The race to make the NCAA Tournament is beginning to heat up, putting teams like Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio State and UCLA in the crosshairs of the bubble.

Where do the Wildcats and the rest fall on this week's Bubble Watch? Read on to find out, and as always remember these important rules of the Bubble Watch column:

1. All records are through the conclusion of action on Tuesday of the given week, in this case Jan. 13.
2. All metrics are also current through the conclusion of action on Tuesday.
3. Any team currently leading its conference is not eligible for bubble watch since they will be assumed to have their league's automatic bid to the tournament for the purposes of this exercise.
4. Strength of schedule figures are based on KenPom's totals. Strength Of Schedule and Non Conference Strength Of Schedule will be short-handed to SOS and NCSOS in the tables.

Bubble Watch - Last Four Byes

Saint Louis

• SOS: 307
• NC SOS: 325
• Last Game: W 84-72 at La Salle
• Next Game: vs. Fordham 1/14

Saint Louis is a team that passes the eye test and is beloved by computer metrics but has no signature non-conference wins against a weaker schedule. The amount of mediocre teams at the bottom of the A-10 means the Billikens need to run up a gaudy record to stay on the right side of the bubble since their margin for error is thinner with opportunities to pick up bad losses coming essentially every week.

USC

• SOS: 42
• NC SOS: 202
• Last Game: W 88-71 vs. Maryland
• Next Game: vs. No. 5 Purdue 1/17

Winning the Maui Invitational has been a big boost for USC, which snagged three neutral site wins for its resume, including one over Seton Hall that is aging quite well. The Trojans have yet to snag a top victory in Big Ten play but have a big opportunity on Saturday as they welcome No. 5 Purdue to town.

Kentucky

• SOS: 51
• NC SOS: 136
• Last Game: W 92-68 vs. Mississippi State
• Next Game: at LSU 1/14

Point guard Jaland Lowe, the Wildcats' one true point guard, is out for the season due to a shoulder injury. Lowe's absence could have a significant impact on Kentucky's chances of making the NCAA Tournament since they don't have a good alternative as their primary ball handler, making life difficult as they dive into the meat of SEC play.

A blowout win over Mississippi State was important for Kentucky but they will have to show they can beat top competition without Lowe, who obviously will not be available for the NCAA Tournament. Getting more than one win away from Rupp Arena would also be a help so any road SEC wins would be good to make sure the Wildcats stay on the right side of the cut line.

Texas A&M

• SOS: 162
• NC SOS: 334
• Last Game: L 87-82 at No. 24 Tennessee
• Next Game: at Texas 1/17

Texas A&M's 13-4 record looks gaudy but is built largely on the strength of a mediocre non-conference slate where they lost to the three best teams they played (fellow bubblers Oklahoma State and UCF along with SMU). Falling by five on the road to a ranked Tennessee team isn't a terrible result in the short term but as long as the Aggies can stay around .500 in league play they should be fine.

Bubble Watch - Last Four In

Indiana

• SOS: 87
• NC SOS: 290
• Last Game: L 81-60 at No. 12 Michigan State
• Next Game: vs. Iowa 1/17

It was easy to feel good about Indiana after they nearly ended Nebraska's unbeaten season but they blew a big second-half lead and got blown out at No. 12 Michigan State to throw cold water on the Hoosiers' success. An 0-4 Quad 1 record isn't great but a game against Iowa offers the Hoosiers an opportunity to get back in the win column against a good opponent.

Ohio State

• SOS: 54
• NC SOS: 297
• Last Game: L 81-74 at Washington
• Next Game: vs. UCLA 1/17

Ohio State split its West Coast swing, winning at Oregon and losing to Washington, and fit the profile of a classic bubble team. Topping fellow bubbler UCLA on Saturday could prove to be imperative to make sure they're higher than the Bruins in the pecking order for the selection committee.

New Mexico

• SOS: 118
• NC SOS: 143
• Last Game: W 87-64 vs. Grand Canyon
• Next Game: at San Diego State 1/17

Win accumulation will be important for New Mexico in a slightly down Mountain West, making the fact they already have a loss to a 9-8 Boise State team less than ideal. Saturday's trip to San Diego State should give the winner an inside track on claiming a second bid for the conference.

TCU

• SOS: 150
• NC SOS: 318
• Last Game: L 86-73 vs. No. 1 Arizona
• Next Game: at No. 11 BYU 1/14

The last team in the field at the moment is TCU, which has two great wins over Florida and Wisconsin on its ledger while carrying a very bad home loss to New Orleans as well. The Horned Frogs missed an opportunity against its first two ranked Big 12 foes but get another crack at a Top 25 foe against BYU on Wednesday night.

Bubble Watch - First Four Out

UCLA

• SOS: 112
• NC SOS: 304
• Last Game: W 67-55 vs. Maryland
• Next Game: at Penn State 1/14

The first team out is UCLA, which is just 1-5 in games against the top two quadrants and just one victory away from Pauley Pavilion. Beating Penn State won't help the first metric but it would at least give the Bruins another example of being able to win a true road game.

Creighton

• SOS: 19
• NC SOS: 69
• Last Game: W 86-83 (OT) vs. Georgetown
• Next Game: at Providence 1/16

Creighton scheduled aggressively and paid the price for it as a gelling team took a bunch of losses in non-conference play, but they are attempting to climb back up the bubble with a fast start to Big East play. Stacking wins is imperative for the Bluejays since they are already carrying seven losses in mid-January, which is far from ideal even if six are of the Quad 1 variety.

LSU

• SOS: 165
• NC SOS: 293
• Last Game: L 84-73 at No. 11 Vanderbilt
• Next Game: vs. Kentucky 1/14

LSU was one of just two SEC teams to miss the tournament last year and are on their way to rectifying that, but an 0-3 mark in conference play is not promising. Wednesday's game against Kentucky may well be a must-win for the Tigers, who have 11 of their 12 victories against teams in the bottom two quadrants of the NET.

Oklahoma State

• SOS: 83
• NC SOS: 250
• Last Game: L 94-79 vs. Baylor
• Next Game: vs. Kansas State 1/17

Oklahoma State has a good win over UCF on its resume but not much else in terms of notoriety, which makes a 15-point home loss to fellow bubbler Baylor a noteworthy data point. Bouncing back against Kansas State should keep the Cowboys within shouting range of the bubble and the Big 12 will offer plenty of marquee win opportunities down the stretch.

Bubble Watch - Next Four Out

Baylor

• SOS: 83
• NC SOS: 250
• Last Game: L 94-79 vs. Baylor
• Next Game: vs. Kansas State 1/17

Baylor had a tough road as Scott Drew had to turn over his entire roster and the fact they're in the bubble conversation is a credit to his coaching. Fresh off a key victory at Oklahoma State, the Bears will hope to catch Kansas napping off the Jayhawks' high of upsetting No. 2 Iowa State to get a big win of their own on Friday night.

San Diego State

• SOS: 28
• NC SOS: 196
• Last Game: W 94-79 at Oklahoma State
• Next Game: at Kansas 1/16

San Diego State is in a bit of trouble as the metrics are down on them thanks to a bad loss to Troy as well as a non-conference victory over Oregon aging poorly due to the Ducks' struggles. There aren't as many opportunities to get Quad 1 victories in the Mountain West this year so the Aztecs will be working on win accumulation to bolster their resume.

Stanford

• SOS: 95
• NC SOS: 231
• Last Game: L 70-55 at No. 23 Virginia
• Next Game: vs. No. 14 North Carolina 1/14

There is a lot to like about Stanford's resume, including its 5 road/neutral wins and 5-1 mark against the top two quadrants, but they're down here thanks to a pair of brutal losses to Seattle and UNLV which are torpedoing their NET. A visit from No. 14 North Carolina offers the Cardinal a chance to get another top victory under their belt to help the committee forget about those dreadful non-conference showings.

Virginia Tech

• SOS: 82
• NC SOS: 185
• Last Game: W 78-75 vs. California
• Next Game: at SMU 1/14

Last up is Virginia Tech, whose claim to fame is beating Virginia earlier this season and having fewer ugly losses than Stanford does. The Hokies have a tricky road game at SMU this week where they shouldn't be penalized for losing it but can gain a lot with a victory.

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