With the calendar flipping to 2026 in college basketball the time has come to open another year of Bubble Watch. While tracking trends in the sport in November and December does matter, most casual fans start paying attention to the college hoops world once conference play begins, meaning we are just over two months away from Selection Sunday.
It is easy to pick some of the top teams to make the field, but figuring out which programs get the final at-large spots and which get left out is the unenviable task of the tournament's Selection Committee, which rotates members yearly and has a wide array of tools to help their challenge: a team's schedule, advanced metrics like the NET rankings and KenPom, the quality of opponents teams played and where they won their games, wins against a projected bubble, and more.
If this sounds complicated, it definitely is, but FanSided's Bubble Watch will attempt to streamline the process a big by sorting through the 16 teams closest to the cut line in a given week and analyze the metrics that matter most. We'll start the inaugural Bubble Watch of the campaign with a few key reminders of how this works:
- All records are through the conclusion of action on Tuesday of the given week, in this case Jan. 6.
- All metrics are also current through the conclusion of action on Tuesday.
- Any team currently leading its conference is not eligible for bubble watch since they will be assumed to have their league's automatic bid to the tournament for the purposes of this exercise.
- Strength of schedule figures are based on KenPom's totals. Strength Of Schedule and Non Conference Strength Of Schedule will be short-handed to SOS and NCSOS in the tables.
Last Four Byes
Team | Seton Hall | Saint Louis | Miami (FL) | NC State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | Big East | Atlantic 10 | ACC | ACC |
Record | 13-2 (3-1) | 13-1 (1-0) | 12-2 (1-0) | 11-5 (2-1) |
NET | 38 | 29 | 34 | 36 |
Quad 1 Record | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1-4 |
Quad 2 Record | 2-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 3-1 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 9-0 | 11-0 | 11-0 | 7-0 |
Road/Neutral Record | 5-1 | 2-1 | 2-2 | 3-3 |
SOS | 130 | 171 | 338 | 37 |
NCSOS | 299 | 327 | 341 | 74 |
Last Game | W 56-54 Vs. Creighton | W 102-79 Vs. St. Joseph's | W 76-69 Vs. Pittsburgh | W 79-71 At Boston College |
Next Game | At Georgetown 1/10 | At VCU 1/7 | At Wake Forest 1/7 | At Florida State 1/10 |
These first four teams offer a wide array of resumes that show the challenge the selection committee faces every year. Seton Hall was projected to finish near the bottom of the Big East but is off to a strong 13-2 start highlighted by a win over NC State at the Maui Invitational that could be a tiebreaker if the teams are fighting for one spot. The Pirates have already won five games away from home, which is important since the NCAA Tournament is not played on campus.
Saint Louis is a good representative of the high-achieving mid-major, racing to a 13-1 record with the lone defeat coming by a point against Stanford that is aging well with the Cardinal overachieving in the ACC. The problem the Billikens may run into is that they weren't able to put together a strong non-conference schedule, leaving them short on signature wins entering league play in an A-10 filled with potential resume-killing land mines.
The ACC is on the upswing and a big part of that resurgence is coming from teams like Miami and NC State, who are performing well under new coaches. Jai Lucas didn't build a tough schedule for a new team and the Hurricanes crushed it, which should give them a chance to have confidence to earn big wins in conference play.
Will Wade took the opposite approach with the Wolfpack, building a tough non-conference schedule that has seen his team already go 3-3 in road/neutral games. The problem is that their 1-4 record against Quad 1 opponents isn't great when the one win came against Boise State in Maui, meaning they need to pick up a few key victories in the ACC to feel comfortable about their positioning in March.
Last Four In
Team | Indiana | Baylor | Ohio State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | Big Ten | Big 12 | Big Ten | Mountain West |
Record | 11-3 (2-1) | 10-3 (0-1) | 10-4 (2-2) | 9-5 (1-2) |
NET | 30 | 40 | 39 | 44 |
Quad 1 Record | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 2-4 |
Quad 2 Record | 2-1 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 2-0 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 9-0 | 6-0 | 7-0 | 4-0 |
Road/Neutral Record | 1-3 | 2-3 | 3-2 | 2-4 |
SOS | 182 | 109 | 102 | 8 |
NCSOS | 268 | 178 | 296 | 33 |
Last Game | W 90-80 Vs. Washington | L 69-63 At TCU | L 72-69 Vs. No. 10 Nebraska | L 110-107 At San Diego State |
Next Game | At Maryland 1/7 | Vs. No. 3 Iowa State 1/7 | At Oregon 1/8 | Vs. Grand Canyon 1/7 |
Indiana is in a decent place right now but is unhappy that Marquette has flopped, taking away their chance at a signature win for their resume. The Big Ten will be the land of opportunity for all its potential tournament teams this season and Indiana needs to find a way to stay above water in the tough league, which makes gettable road games like Wednesday's trip to College Park important ones.
Scott Drew faced the unenviable task of turning over his entire roster with Baylor and has the Bears off to a good 10-3 start with three Quad 2 victories. A loss to fellow bubbler TCU is not ideal as it indicates that Baylor may not survive the rugged Big 12 with a brutal road trip to No. 3 Iowa State on tap for Wednesday night.
Ohio State barely missed the field a year ago because they lost too many games and are trying to correct that mistake this year, going 10-4 over the first half of their schedule. A tight loss to No. 10 Nebraska shows that the Buckeyes can hang with the Big Ten's best and they need to find ways to score enough road wins to separate themselves from the bubble pack.
The last team in right now is Boise State, whose 9-5 record is deceptive since the Broncos have played a very difficult schedule to date that has a tough loss to USC on it as well as good wins over Saint Mary's and New Mexico. The Mountain West will be a challenge for the Broncos, who could have really used a road win at San Diego State that they dropped by 3.
First Four Out
Team | Oklahoma | Virginia Tech | Butler | TCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | SEC | ACC | Big East | Big 12 |
Record | 11-3 (1-0) | 12-3 (1-1) | 10-6 (1-4) | 11-4 (1-1) |
NET | 48 | 57 | 52 | 42 |
Quad 1 Record | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
Quad 2 Record | 1-1 | 3-1 | 2-2 | 2-1 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 9-0 | 8-0 | 7-0 | 8-0 |
Road/Neutral Record | 3-3 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 3-1 |
SOS | 310 | 95 | 29 | 225 |
NCSOS | 319 | 184 | 236 | 320 |
Last Game | W 86-70 Vs. Ole Miss | L 81-78 At Wake Forest | L 84-70 Vs. St. John's | L 104-100 At No. 22 Kansas |
Next Game | At Mississippi State 1/7 | Vs. Stanford 1/7 | At Xavier 1/14 | Vs. No. 1 Arizona 1/10 |
Oklahoma flirted with the bubble all of last season before sneaking into the field and they are right near the cut line to start the 2026 Bubble Watch. While 11 wins is nice, the Sooners' best win is over fellow bubbler Oklahoma State, meaning they need to beat some of the SEC's top dogs to survive poor strength of schedule figures.
An upset of Virginia put the Hokies firmly into the bubble picture but they couldn't consolidate their big gain with a loss at Wake Forest over the weekend. Wednesday's visit from Stanford is trickier than initially anticipated for Virginia Tech but is a game a tournament-caliber team should find a way to win.
Butler is another Big East team that is overachieving compared to pre-season projections but is in a tight spot since the league is light on big win opportunities. The Bulldogs already have seen St. John's and UCONN once, dropping both matchups, but a win over Virginia is keeping them in the conversation for now.
TCU missed out on a golden opportunity to add a statement win to their resume by dropping a road game at No. 22 Kansas by 4 points. Another big chance arrives on Saturday as No. 1 Arizona comes to town, offering a potential season-defining victory if the Horned Frogs can seize it.
Next Four Out
Team | Tulsa | Creighton | Oklahoma State | California |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | American | Big East | Big 12 | ACC |
Record | 13-2 (1-1) | 9-6 (3-1) | 13-2 (1-1) | 13-2 (1-1) |
NET | 41 | 53 | 68 | 59 |
Quad 1 Record | 0-1 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 1-2 |
Quad 2 Record | 1-0 | 2-1 | 3-0 | 1-0 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 10-1 | 7-0 | 10-0 | 10-0 |
Road/Neutral Record | 6-2 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
SOS | 243 | 23 | 158 | 303 |
NCSOS | 237 | 60 | 260 | 338 |
Last Game | L 72-67 At North Texas | L 56-64 At Seton Hall | W 87-76 Vs. No. 25 UCF | W 72-71 Vs. Notre Dame |
Next Game | Vs. South Florida 1/10 | At Villanova 1/7 | At No. 3 Iowa State 1/10 | At No. 23 Virginia 1/7 |
Tulsa is hoping to be the American's second team and its two losses have come by a combined six points, but the issue is there isn't a true signature victory here to build a resume around. Sheer win accumulation needs to be the path for the Golden Hurricane, which is not easy considering we still have half a season still to be played.
Creighton is probably the biggest disappointment from the preseason Top 25, choosing to follow North Carolina's path from a year ago by going 0-5 against Quad 1 foes and beating up on nearly everyone else. Dropping winnable games like the trip to Seton Hall are an issue for the Bluejays, who need to win at Villanova to avoid dropping off of this section of the page entirely.
Oklahoma State is off to a hot start and earned a ranked victory by taking down No. 25 UCF at home for their best win of the season. Finding a way to at No. 3 Iowa State on Saturday won't be easy but it would make life a lot easier for their tournament resume if they could steal that game.
Lastly we look at Cal, whose gaudy record includes a win over UCLA on a neutral floor that is one of just two games they've played away from Haas Pavilion. The reality of ACC play and its long road trips will put the Golden Bears to the test and we'll find out quickly whether this group is for real or a product of home cupcakes.