Bracketology: Why a soft bubble could help teams like Miami

There has been a big push over the past few years to expand the NCAA Tournament, with SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey making a concerted effort to get the field up to at least 72 teams, arguing for more access since Division I has expanded over the years. The argument itself is quite flawed since most of the new teams have landed in traditional one-bid leagues, meaning Sankey and other power conference commissioners want to see more mediocre teams from power conferences snag at-large invites.

The state of the bubble, as it was at this point last year, is largely uninspiring as a lot of teams in the mix are stacking losses, lack quality wins, or are good mid-majors without opportunities to add those signature victories to their resume thanks to the leagues they play in. Scoring a big win can make a big difference for a team in the bubble mess, which is what makes a result like Miami's win over No. 11 North Carolina quite important and a potential separator for the Hurricanes.

The Hurricanes have been frequent fliers in the Bubble Watch space this year thanks to a soft schedule and a bad loss to Florida State hanging on their resume, but how much difference will the win over the Tar Heels make for them? Read on to find out, but first here's a quick refresher on the rules of the Bubble Watch column.

1. All records are through the conclusion of action on Tuesday of the given week, in this case Feb. 10.
2. All metrics are also current through the conclusion of action on Tuesday.
3. Any team currently leading its conference is not eligible for bubble watch since they will be assumed to have their league's automatic bid to the tournament for the purposes of this exercise. This explains why Santa Clara, which has been a regular here, isn't in this week's column because they are currently projected to get the WCC's automatic bid.
4. Strength of schedule figures are based on KenPom's totals. Strength Of Schedule and Non Conference Strength Of Schedule will be short-handed to SOS and NCSOS in each team's description.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four Byes

Indiana Hoosiers

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 17-8 (8-6)
• SOS: 51
• NCSOS: 294
• Last Game: W 92-74 Vs. Oregon
• Next Game: At No. 8 Illinois 2/15

The Hoosiers took care of business with wins against Wisconsin and Oregon following a loss to USC, which is keeping them just shy of escaping the page entirely. Three of Indiana's next four games are against ranked opponents, including a two game trip to No. 8 Illinois and No. 13 Purdue, so if they can escape it with a 2-2 split they should be in fine shape to secure a spot in the field.

Georgia Bulldogs

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 17-6 (5-5)
• SOS: 72
• NCSOS: 335
• Last Game: W 83-71 Vs. LSU
• Next Game: Vs. No. 14 Florida 2/11

A pillow soft non-conference schedule allowed Georgia to race to a 12-1 start that got them into the polls but SEC play has brought a reality check to the Bulldogs, who snapped a three-game losing skid with a road win at LSU. There isn't a lot of great stuff on Georgia's resume, which has a couple of good home wins over Auburn and Arkansas to lean on, but they need to consistently beat tournament-caliber teams to stay safe.

Saint Mary's Gaels

• Conference: WCC
• Record: 21-4 (10-2)
• SOS: 97
• NCSOS: 89
• Last Game: W 79-54 Vs. San Francisco
• Next Game: Vs. Pepperdine 2/11

Strong schedule numbers and a win over fellow bubbler Virginia Tech come in handy for the Gaels, who pass the eye test of a tournament team but don't get many opportunities to prove it in the WCC. Saint Mary's is simply trying to avoid bad losses until the final week of the regular season, when they welcome both Santa Clara and Gonzaga to Moraga, and a split there would probably keep them safe as long as they can reach the semifinals of the conference tournament.

San Diego State Aztecs

• Conference: Mountain West
• Record: 17-6 (11-2)
• SOS: 74
• NCSOS: 47
• Last Game: W 88-54 Vs. Air Force
• Next Game: Vs. Nevada 2/14

This resume is very similar to Saint Mary's with the main difference being a Quad 3 loss at home to Troy that is dragging down the Aztecs' NET. Saturday's home date with Nevada is quite tricky since the Wolf Pack are making a push to be on the bubble but won't add much to San Diego State's ledger if they defend home court.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four In

UCLA Bruins

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 17-7 (9-4)
• SOS: 66
• NCSOS: 278
• Last Game: W 77-73 Vs. Washington
• Next Game: At No. 2 Michigan 2/14

Even though it's not great to be in First Four territory there is enough to like from UCLA's resume that they aren't in any real danger of slipping out of the field right now. A road trip to take on the two Michigan schools, beginning with a visit to Ann Arbor on Valentine's Day, offers nothing but upside for the Bruins that could supercharge their candidacy if they can get a split.

Miami Hurricanes

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 19-5 (8-3)
• SOS: 107
• NCSOS: 339
• Last Game: W 75-66 Vs. No. 11 North Carolina
• Next Game: At NC State 2/14

Tuesday's win over the Tar Heels was massive for the Hurricanes, who were slated to be the first team out of the field prior to getting their best result of the season. A soft schedule has allowed Miami to stack a lot of empty calorie victories but five of their final seven games come against potential tournament teams, giving the Hurricanes a great opportunity to further pad their resume to get out of this range of the bracket.

New Mexico Lobos

• Conference: Mountain West
• Record: 18-6 (9-4)
• SOS: 87
• NCSOS: 146
• Last Game: L 91-90 Vs. Boise State
• Next Game: At Grand Canyon 2/11

Things are getting dicey for New Mexico, which has lost four games in a mediocre Mountain West and got swept by Boise State, which is having a down year in itself. Wins over Santa Clara and VCU are keeping the Lobos in the field for now as they stare down the barrel of a tricky trip to Grand Canyon, which is good enough to beat New Mexico while dealing them another loss that would push them out of the field for now.

Texas Longhorns

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 15-9 (6-5)
• SOS: 29
• NCSOS: 307
• Last Game: W 79-68 Vs. Ole Miss
• Next Game: At Missouri 2/14

There are a few good wins on here for Texas but the thing that's worrisome is the fact that the Longhorns already have nine losses, which is a lot to carry when two of them (Arizona State and Mississippi State) came to teams who won't make the field of 68. Going 4-3 over their final seven games would leave Texas at 19-12 and firmly in the bubble mix, so they need to pick up the pace to make life easier on themselves for Selection Sunday.

March Madness Bubble Watch - First Four Out

California Golden Bears

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 17-7 (5-6)
• SOS: 79
• NCSOS: 325
• Last Game: L 77-55 Vs. No. 20 Clemson
• Next Game: At Syracuse 2/11

The Golden Bears squandered one of their last opportunities to add a marquee victory to their ledger by getting blown out at home by No. 20 Clemson. SMU is the only tournament caliber team left on Cal's schedule before the ACC Tournament, offering plenty of long road trips with landmine potential, such as their current East Coast swing to Syracuse and Boston College.

Ohio State Buckeyes

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 15-8 (7-6)
• SOS: 50
• NCSOS: 292
• Last Game: L 82-61 Vs. No. 2 Michigan
• Next Game: Vs. USC 2/11

The glaring hole in Ohio State's resume is an 0-7 record in Quad 1 games, which is a no-fly for tournament entry when they also have a loss at Pitt weighing them down. There are plenty of opportunities for the Buckeyes to change that narrative, including this week's home visit from USC and a neutral site tilt against No. 15 Virginia on Saturday night, but if Ohio State can't start beating good teams they won't give the committee a good reason to call their name on Selection Sunday.

VCU Rams

• Conference: Atlantic 10
• Record: 18-6 (9-2)
• SOS: 113
• NCSOS: 229
• Last Game: W 99-73 Vs. Dayton
• Next Game: At La Salle 2/11

Two losses in three games for George Mason means the A-10's best shot at a second bid lies with VCU, which took care of business by hammering Dayton for their seventh straight win. There isn't much the A-10 can offer to truly help the Rams outside of dates with the Patriots and No. 18 Saint Louis so VCU has to simply try running up their record before they face those teams again down the stretch.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane

• Conference: American
• Record: 20-4 (8-3)
• SOS: 125
• NCSOS: 252
• Last Game: L 80-74 At South Florida
• Next Game: Vs. UAB 2/11

Getting swept by South Florida brings Tulsa to the page for the first time as the Golden Hurricane are a 20-win outfit in the American whose main case relies on solid-ish metrics and win acculumation. There isn't much left on the schedule that will move the needle for the Golden Hurricane, who also lost in league play to North Texas, so they probably need the auto bid to go dancing.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Next Four Out

Virginia Tech Hokies

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 16-8 (5-6)
• SOS: 60
• NCSOS: 216
• Last Game: L 82-73 At NC State
• Next Game: At No. 20 Clemson 2/11

The Hokies struck out again with an opportunity to add a good win to their resume when they lost on the road to NC State, dropping them below .500 in ACC play. A win over Virginia still plays but Virginia Tech really needs another good result to show the committee they are capable of holding their own in March.

Missouri Tigers

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 16-7 (6-4)
• SOS: 77
• NCSOS: 344
• Last Game: W 78-59 At South Carolina
• Next Game: At Texas A&M 2/11

The first week of SEC play, which saw Missouri take advantage of drawing both Florida and Kentucky before they got hot, is doing a lot of work to keep a frankly mediocre Tigers' group on this page. Missouri's next five games (At Texas A&M, Texas, No. 19 Vanderbilt, At No. 21 Arkansas, Tennessee) come against potential tournament teams and the Tigers really need to go at least 3-2 in that stretch to put themselves on the right side of the cut line.

Seton Hall Pirates

• Conference: Big East
• Record: 16-8 (6-7)
• SOS: 68
• NCSOS: 296
• Last Game: L 69-68 At Creighton
• Next Game: Vs. Providence 2/11

Two straight losses to Villanova and Creighton brought the Pirates to 6-7 in Big East play and its safe to say Shaheen Holloway's crew isn't embracing their connection to the viral meme. Seton Hall has largely squandered its 10-1 non-conference record, which only adds a win over NC State in Maui for resume value, leaving them in a position where they essentially have to run the table (which includes a trip to No. 6 UCONN and a home date against No. 17 St. John's to end the regular season) to avoid needing the auto-bid from the Big East.

Stanford Cardinal

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 15-9 (4-7)
• SOS: 63
• NCSOS: 206
• Last Game: W 95-72 Vs. Georgia Tech
• Next Game: At Boston College 2/11

There may not be a more confounding resume to try and sort through than Stanford's, which is the only team to beat Saint Louis this season and also has wins over North Carolina, Louisville and at Virginia Tech to hang its hat on. The Cardinal also have a bunch of mind boggling losses, including three of the Quad 3 variety (Seattle U, UNLV and Notre Dame all at home) which are dragging down their NET, but the sheer quality of their top-end results makes them worth monitoring down the stretch.

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