Bubble Watch: Miami of Ohio's loss throws everything into chaos

This week has not been a banner one for the bubble. Since our last check-in on Tuesday, most of the bubble teams have proceeded to slip on various forms of banana peels, whether that was losing the first game of their conference tournaments (Stanford, Texas for example), blowing huge leads in must-win games (Auburn, Cincinnati) or pulling a no-show (Indiana).

All of that action led to relatively little movement on the bubble compared to the start of the week, but things changed dramatically in Cleveland, Ohio as the nation's last unbeaten team went down. Miami of Ohio's loss to UMASS dropped the Redhawks into the at-large pool and despite the prognostications of some pro-power conference pundits, ensured that the bubble will shrink by one.

There is still a chance the Redhawks end up in Dayton for the First Four, but there is surprisingly little on the line for the bubble entering the weekend since most of the projected bubblers have already been eliminated. Still having a game on Friday is a tremendous asset for potential bubble teams since they have an opportunity to either secure their own fate with an auto bid or win enough games to pass teams who have already foregone their opportunities. Before we dive deeper into the state of the bubble, here's what you need to keep an eye on for bubble purposes:

• Seton Hall plays St. John's in the Big East Tournament with a win putting them firmly in the bubble conversation given the events of the week.
• Oklahoma continued its surge with a win over Texas A&M, it's sixth straight, to climb into the bubble fray before they take on Arkansas in the SEC Tournament tonight.
• San Diego State and New Mexico square off tonight in the Mountain West semifinals, with the winner likely to assume one of the final at-large spots and the loser essentially eliminated from contention.
• The A-10 Tournament quarterfinals kick off today with Saint Louis taking on George Washington and VCU playing Duquesne, and a loss by the Billikens would all but ensure a bid thief from this league.
• Potential power conference bid thieves still exist in the Big East (Seton Hall and 11-seed Georgetown) and the SEC (Ole Miss).

To be clear, if your favorite team has a next game listed in this check-in they are in much better shape than those stuck waiting for the selection committee's decision. Now that we've set the stage for Friday's action, let's look at the rules of the Bubble Watch space one final time.

1. All records are through the conclusion of action on Thursday, March 12.
2. All metrics are also current through the conclusion of action on Thursday.
3. Any team currently holding the top seed or is the highest seed remaining in their conference tournament or is not eligible for bubble watch since they will be assumed to have their league's automatic bid to the tournament for the purposes of this exercise.
4. Strength of schedule figures are based on KenPom's totals. Strength Of Schedule and Non Conference Strength Of Schedule will be short-handed to SOS and NCSOS in each team's description

Bubble Watch - Last Four Byes

Miami (OH) Redhawks

• Conference: MAC
• Record: 31-1 (18-0)
• SOS: 269
• NCSOS: 361
• WAB: 37 (1.70)
• Last Game: L 87-83 Vs. UMASS

The strength of the Redhawks' schedule has been litigated to death, and its numbers are ugly, but it is hard to blame Miami for the league they play in and the fact that the NCAA's current NET system made power conference teams unwilling to schedule them since a date with a Redhawks' team that retained significant pieces from last year's MAC runner-up squad an all-risk, no-reward proposition. The good news for the Redhawks is that their WAB is in the Top 40, which is a good bet for at-large inclusion given the NCAA's belief in its importance.

The loss to UMASS probably dropped the Redhawks from the 8-9 game into the 10-seed range, but the NCAA will not leave them out of the field since it would be sending a bad message to 75 percent of college basketball: that winning every game you play in the regular season doesn't matter if you don't play strong enough teams. That argument holds some water in football with a 12-team postseason field and fewer regular season games, but with a 68-team field and a 31-game regular season there is room for Miami in the main draw, although a trip to Dayton can't be ruled out if a few more bid thieves emerge between now and Sunday.

Santa Clara Broncos

• Conference: WCC
• Record: 26-8 (15-3)
• SOS: 85
• NCSOS: 86
• WAB: 36 (2.14)
• Last Game: L 79-68 Vs. No. 12 Gonzaga

Few bubble teams helped themselves more than Santa Clara, which won its way to the WCC title game and gave Gonzaga everything they can handle on Tuesday night before falling short. Respectable metrics and two Q1 wins over Saint Mary's are more than enough for the Broncos to go dancing for the first time since 1996.

VCU Rams

• Conference: Atlantic 10
• Record: 24-7 (15-3)
• SOS: 103
• NCSOS: 223
• WAB: 42 (0.99)
• Last Game: W 68-62 At Dayton
• Next Game: Vs. Duquesne 3/13

The Rams were some of the big beneficiaries of the bubble flops this week, moving up to last four byes territory by simply not playing. A potential fly in the ointment could be the fact that VCU's WAB isn't stellar and they have two opportunities to damage it with losses (against Duquesne and either St. Joseph's or Davidson) before Sunday's title game, but the Rams' ability to take care of business all year offers confidence they will secure their place over the next two days.

UCF Knights

• Conference: Big 12
• Record: 21-11 (9-9)
• SOS: 36
• NCSOS: 259
• WAB: 35 (2.15)
• Last Game: L 81-59 Vs. No. 2 Arizona

We would be looking at the Knights' case a lot differently if they hadn't rallied to beat Cincinnati in overtime on Wednesday, which prevented what would have been a season-ending four-game skid against teams highly unlikely to make the field. Getting boat raced by Arizona is not a good look for UCF but they did enough work prior to early March to hang on for dear life.

Bubble Watch - Last Four In

Missouri Tigers

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 20-12 (10-8)
• SOS: 41
• NCSOS: 345
• WAB: 41 (1.22)
• Last Game: L 78-72 Vs. Kentucky

A loss to Kentucky in the SEC Tournament isn't the worst thing in the world for Missouri, but dropping the final three games of the regular season and a non-conference schedule rated in the 340s is enough reason for concern with the Tigers. A solid WAB should help the Tigers stay in the field, however, unless there are a few more bid thieves than we anticipate over the next few days.

NC State Wolfpack

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 20-13 (10-8)
• SOS: 34
• NCSOS: 85
• WAB: 43 (0.81)
• Last Game: L 81-74 Vs. No. 10 Virginia

The Wolfpack's stumble down the stretch, where they dropped seven of their last nine games, has left them vulnerable to being left out thanks to a significant hit to their WAB. A Quad 4 loss at home to Georgia Tech also sticks out like a sore thumb for NC State, who has to hope against hope that Saint Louis and especially Utah State can take care of business in their conference tournament to avoid bid thieves.

Texas Longhorns

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 18-14 (9-9)
• SOS: 17
• NCSOS: 322
• WAB: 46 (-0.03)
• Last Game: L 76-66 Vs. Ole Miss

Texas is on incredibly thin ice after its last two losses: a home loss to Oklahoma that could help the red-hot Sooners pass them and an SEC Tournament loss to Ole Miss that sent the Longhorns' WAB into negative territory. With at least one bid thief coming and a few more bubble teams still having opportunities to pass them it wouldn't be shocking if Texas is left by the wayside on Selection Sunday.

New Mexico Lobos

• Conference: Mountain West
• Record: 23-9 (13-7)
• SOS: 89
• NCSOS: 170
• WAB: 50 (-0.38)
• Last Game: W 93-77 Vs. San Jose State
• Next Game: Vs. San Diego State 3/13

The last spot in for the moment resides with New Mexico, who has the higher ranked resume of the Mountain West's contenders for a second bid. Their game against San Diego State tonight is a must-have if they want to have a shot at an at-large if they don't win the conference tournament outright.

Bubble Watch - First Four Out

SMU Mustangs

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 20-13 (8-10)
• SOS: 47
• NCSOS: 144
• WAB: 45 (0.07)
• Last Game: L 62-58 Vs. No. 24 Louisville

While a loss to a ranked Louisville team may not be the worst a bubble team took this week, the effects of dropping five of six to end the season put them in a very dicey position as their WAB is barely above 0 and they have 13 losses against an average schedule. Without a truly standout win to hang their hat on (league triumphs against North Carolina and Louisville are the best that the Mustangs have to offer), their fate depends on the committee's preferences, although more bid thieves put them in true peril.

San Diego State Aztecs

• Conference: Mountain West
• Record: 21-10 (14-6)
• SOS: 77
• NCSOS: 62
• WAB: 49 (-0.29)
• Last Game: W 71-62 Vs. Colorado State
• Next Game: Vs. New Mexico 3/13

A win over Colorado State was a big help for the Aztecs, who are neck-and-neck with New Mexico for the right to be the second team taken out of the Mountain West. Beating the Lobos on Friday night is the best bet to ensure that possibility, although it would be better to simply win the auto bid for themselves at that point to take all possibility of being snubbed out of the committee's hands.

Oklahoma Sooners

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 19-14 (7-11)
• SOS: 25
• NCSOS: 313
• WAB: 47 (-0.17)
• Last Game: W 83-63 Vs. Texas A&M
• Next Game: Vs. No. 17 Arkansas 3/13

It's hard to believe that a team that lost nine games in a row in January is getting serious bubble discussion, but the Sooners deserve credit for surging down the stretch and taking advantage of everyone else's lack of success claiming at-larges. Reasonable metrics have the Sooners in the conversation now, but they still need to at least get by Arkansas today in order to push their WAB into positive territory.

Auburn Tigers

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 17-16 (7-11)
• SOS: 2
• NCSOS: 28
• WAB: 44 (0.35)
• Last Game: L 72-62 Vs. No. 25 Tennessee

Everything appeared to be coming up Auburn with bubble teams folding around them and the Tigers holding a 10-point second-half lead against a ranked Tennessee team, but a 19-0 run by the Volunteers essentially ended the Tigers' at-large dreams. Steven Pearl cited his team's strong schedule and Quad 1 wins as evidence for inclusion, but the Selection Committee is highly unlikely to set a precedent taking a team with 16 losses and only one game above .500 as an at-large.

Bubble Watch - Next Four Out

Seton Hall Pirates

• Conference: Big East
• Record: 21-11 (10-10)
• SOS: 75
• NCSOS: 290
• WAB: 54 (-0.50)
• Last Game: W 72-61 Vs. Creighton
• Next Game: Vs. No. 13 St. John's 3/13

Beating Creighton on Thursday was an important piece of business for the Pirates, who are still playing basketball when 90 percent of the bubble is not. Taking down St. John's is a must tonight and should be enough to push Seton Hall's WAB into positive territory, but it remains to be seen if they can get an at-large in this field if they don't get the Big East's auto bid with a loss to UCONN on Saturday night.

Indiana Hoosiers

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 18-14 (9-11)
• SOS: 38
• NCSOS: 300
• WAB: 53 (-0.49)
• Last Game: L 74-61 Vs. Northwestern

The Hoosiers put on a master class of how to choke away a bubble spot in three weeks, dropping six of their final seven games with a pair of losses to a Northwestern team that won't sniff the tournament. Unless the selection committee wants to give Darian DeVries a make-good bid for controversially snubbing him last year with West Virginia it looks like Indiana will have to decide whether or not to accept an invite to The Crown.

Stanford Cardinal

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 20-12 (9-9)
• SOS: 72
• NCSOS: 195
• WAB: 57 (-0.78)
• Last Game: L 64-63 Vs. Pittsburgh

A late season surge by Stanford and a strong collection of Quad 1 wins put the Cardinal on the right side of the cut line entering the ACC Tournament, but we warned them on Tuesday that they couldn't afford to slip on a banana peel in Charlotte given some of their atrocious Quad 3 losses. Stanford face planted against a bad Pitt team, losing by a point to end their realistic chances of at-large selection.

West Virginia Mountaineers

• Conference: Big 12
• Record: 18-14 (9-9)
• SOS: 71
• NCSOS: 349
• WAB: 67 (-1.59)
• Last Game: L 68-48 Vs. BYU

The five Quad 1 wins (including some high-end ones over Kansas and BYU) are nice, but West Virginia's WAB is unseemly thanks to a Quad 3 home loss to Utah and another defeat at Kansas State. The Mountaineers were the most controversial omission from the tournament last year but this year is a bit easier to understand why they won't be dancing.

More college basketball news and analysis: