Bubble Watch: Indiana, Auburn and more teams with work left to do in Championship Week

Champ Week has arrived and there figures to be a lot of drama to be had during the biggest conference tournaments. A potential bid thief could steal the WCC's auto-bid from Gonzaga tonight while at least 20 teams are fighting for one of the final spots in the NCAA Tournament field, a number that could shrink if more bid thieves emerge between now and Selection Sunday.

The high stakes of the bubble are part of the appeal of Champ Week, an underrated gem on the college basketball calendar with wall-to-wall action from midday until midnight as conference tournaments play out across the country. That drama would all but disappear if the tournament expanded beyond 68 teams, which NCAA President Charlie Baker and several power conference commissioners are advocating for in the name of access, but anyone hungering for expansion needs to find 68 teams good enough to be in this tournament first before we worry about turning the First Four into a First 12 or 16.

Between Friday night and Saturday, a whopping 13 teams (UCF, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, Missouri, SMU, Cincinnati, New Mexico, NC State, Indiana, California, Auburn, Texas and USC) lost games they needed to win to improve their positioning or stay on the right side of the cut line. As a result, it is anyone's guess who emerges with the final spots in the field on Selection Sunday.

FanSided will run Bubble Watch twice during Champ Week, on Tuesday and Friday, to update the state of the bubble with the NCAA Tournament just days away. Before we go any further, here's a quick refresher on the rules of the Bubble Watch column.

1. All records are through the conclusion of action on Monday March 9.
2. All metrics are also current through the conclusion of action on Monday.
3. Any team currently holding the top seed or is the highest seed remaining in their conference tournament or is not eligible for bubble watch since they will be assumed to have their league's automatic bid to the tournament for the purposes of this exercise.
4. Strength of schedule figures are based on KenPom's totals. Strength Of Schedule and Non Conference Strength Of Schedule will be short-handed to SOS and NCSOS in each team's description

Bubble Watch - Last Four Byes

Santa Clara Broncos

• Conference: WCC
• Record: 26-7 (15-3)
• SOS: 89
• NCSOS: 90
• WAB: 40 (1.55)
• Last Game: W 76-71 Vs. No. 21 Saint Mary's
• Next Game: Vs. No. 12 Gonzaga 3/10

No bubble team was a bigger winner over the weekend than Santa Clara, who watched the competition around them crumble before winning their quarterfinal and semifinal matchups, the latter being a Quad 1 win over No. 21 Saint Mary's, to lock up a spot and avoid a trip to the First Four. The Broncos can officially secure their first appearance in March Madness since 1996 by topping No. 12 Gonzaga in the WCC title game on Tuesday night.

Iowa Hawkeyes

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 20-11 (10-10)
• SOS: 43
• NCSOS: 337
• WAB: 38 (1.76)
• Last Game: L 84-75 (OT) At No. 9 Nebraska
• Next Game: Vs. Oregon/Maryland Winner 3/11

Iowa is in this space for the first time this season thanks to some ill-timed struggles down the stretch, including a bad road loss at Maryland that kicked off a slump where the Hawkeyes dropped six of their final eight games to fall to the second round of the Big Ten Tournament. Beating the winner of the Oregon-Maryland first round game would set Iowa up to play surging Ohio State, who passed them with a strong finish to the season, but a loss in that second round game could make things a bit uncomfortable for a team with just one truly standout win (a five-point home victory over Nebraska) and a non-conference schedule ranking sitting in the 330s.

UCF Knights

• Conference: Big 12
• Record: 20-10 (9-9)
• SOS: 47
• NCSOS: 257
• WAB: 37 (1.83)
• Last Game: L 77-62 At West Virginia
• Next Game: Vs. Cincinnati/Utah Winner 3/11

The fact the Knights are here is a self-inflicted wound as they dropped three straight to end the regular season to Baylor, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, which isn't exactly considered a murderer's row in the Big 12. UCF awaits the winner of the Cincinnati-Utah matchup in the conference tournament and a win there should be enough with this bubble, but losing that game would leave them vulnerable to getting lapped to some of the league's other bubble outfits like the Bearcats and Mountaineers, who swept them in the regular season.

NC State Wolfpack

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 19-12 (10-8)
• SOS: 36
• NCSOS: 84
• WAB: 43 (0.82)
• Last Game: L 85-84 Vs. Stanford
• Next Game: Vs. Stanford/Pitt Winner 3/11

Strong scheduling numbers are keeping the Wolfpack out of Dayton but Will Wade's team is spiraling out of control, losing six of seven down the stretch, including damaging losses at Notre Dame and at home to fellow bubbler Stanford. WAB isn't kind to NC State, whose 0.82 figure is on the fringe of at-large territory, and if the Cardinal beat them for a second time in a row in the ACC Tournament there's a chance the Wolfpack are left out of the field entirely.

Bubble Watch - Last Four In

SMU Mustangs

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 19-12 (8-10)
• SOS: 53
• NCSOS: 140
• WAB: 48 (0.04)
• Last Game: L 91-78 At Florida State
• Next Game: Vs. Syracuse 3/10

A WAB of 48 is damning for SMU, which has lost four in a row to end the regular season, including a road loss at Florida State to drop below .500 in ACC play. The result is SMU needing to play a first round game against Syracuse, who just beat them a few weeks ago, that is a can't-lose spot as the Mustangs could find themselves out of the field if they can't get another shot at Louisville on Wednesday.

Texas Longhorns

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 18-13 (9-9)
• SOS: 17
• NCSOS: 321
• WAB: 44 (0.70)
• Last Game: L 88-85 Vs. Oklahoma
• Next Game: Vs. Ole Miss 3/11

Dropping 4 of 5 down the stretch has put Texas back into First Four territory, with Saturday's loss to Oklahoma particularly damaging since it set the Longhorns up in a first round matchup against 12-19 Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament. Like SMU above them, a loss in that game would undermine a lot of the good things in Texas' resume and leave a long wait for Selection Sunday.

VCU Rams

• Conference: Atlantic 10
• Record: 24-7 (15-3)
• SOS: 103
• NCSOS: 223
• WAB: 42 (1.06)
• Last Game: W 68-62 At Dayton
• Next Game: Vs. Duquesne/Rhode Island Winner 3/13

Unlike most of the bubble, VCU actually helped its cause with a road win at Dayton on Friday, which qualifies as a needed Quad 1 result for the Rams' resume. Saint Louis' loss earned VCU a share of the A-10's regular season title and they are the 2-seed in the conference tournament, earning an easier path to the finals but one that now requires them to win at least one game that could damage their resume to the point of exclusion if they can't get to the championship game on Sunday.

Stanford Cardinal

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 20-11 (9-9)
• SOS: 72
• NCSOS: 194
• WAB: 0.02
• Last Game: W 85-84 At NC State
• Next Game: Vs. Pitt 3/10

The Cardinal are surging at the right time, winning four in a row to end the regular season, including key victories over fellow bubblers SMU and NC State to claim the final spot in the field as of now. Stanford's top end wins (Saint Louis, North Carolina, Louisville, at NC State) are better than those of both SMU and NC State, but three Quad 3 losses hang like an anvil over the Cardinal, meaning they can't slip on a banana peel against Pitt on Tuesday and probably have to beat NC State again as well to feel better about their chances entering the weekend.

Bubble Watch - First Four Out

New Mexico Lobos

• Conference: Mountain West
• Record: 22-9 (13-7)
• SOS: 86
• NCSOS: 168
• WAB: 52 (-0.37)
• Last Game: L 94-90 At Utah State
• Next Game: Vs. Boise State/San Jose State Winner 3/12

Even though predictive metrics are still high on New Mexico, dropping three of four down the stretch has plunged the Lobos' WAB into negative territory, which is certainly a no-fly for at-large consideration with this committee. Winning a quarterfinal game against Boise State or San Jose State in the Mountain West Tournament won't move the needle much there so they really need to beat San Diego State again in the semifinals to even have a shot at an at-large if they can't snag the conference's auto bid.

Indiana Hoosiers

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 18-13 (9-11)
• SOS: 34
• NCSOS: 301
• WAB: 47 (0.15)
• Last Game: L 91-78 At Ohio State
• Next Game: Vs. Penn State/Northwestern Winner 3/11

Indiana is playing its way out of the field with losses in five of their final six games, including a sleepy showing in a must-win spot against Ohio State on Saturday in a nationally televised window on FOX. Getting a third shot at slumping Purdue would be massive for the Hoosiers' chances but they would need to survive the Penn State/Northwestern winner first and the Wildcats just beat them at Assembly Hall in late February.

California Golden Bears

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 21-10 (9-9)
• SOS: 78
• NCSOS: 324
• WAB: 50 (-0.05)
• Last Game: L 80-73 At Wake Forest
• Next Game: Vs. Florida State 3/11

The Golden Bears are in deep trouble after a loss at Wake Forest on Sunday, which they really needed to get to offset a brutal defeat at home against Pitt earlier this month. To make matters worse, Cal drew red-hot Florida State, which has won nine of its past 11 games, in the ACC Tournament in a game they have to win to stay within range of the cut line.

San Diego State Aztecs

• Conference: Mountain West
• Record: 20-10 (14-6)
• SOS: 76
• NCSOS: 61
• WAB: 55 (-0.49)
• Last Game: W 89-86 Vs. UNLV
• Next Game: Vs. Colorado State/Fresno State Winner 3/12

The biggest thing working against the Aztecs is their WAB, which is lower than anybody above them on the page (and a few teams below them as well) and sits about a half win worse than break-even for the average bubble team. Getting the 2-seed in the Mountain West Tournament helps but they probably need to beat New Mexico in the semifinals to set themselves up for a chance to get an at-large if they can't steal the league's auto bid in the final.

Bubble Watch - Next Four Out

Auburn Tigers

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 16-15 (7-11)
• SOS: 2
• NCSOS: 26
• WAB: 45 (0.39)
• Last Game: L 96-84 At No. 16 Alabama
• Next Game: Vs. Mississippi State 3/11

The bubble's most controversial entrant received some hype from coach Steven Pearl following a blowout loss at No. 16 Alabama on Saturday, pointing out their strength of schedule figures and the fact that their win at Florida is one of the best wins a bubble team has to offer. While those facts are true, the Tigers were routinely blown out against most of their top opponents (including losses by 30 to Michigan, 28 to Purdue, and at Arizona by 29), so they shouldn't get credit for simply showing up to play tough games. Auburn would also be a precedent setter if they get picked as an at-large since that would mean they picked up a 16th loss, which no at-large team has ever done before, so it is hard to see this team being the one the Selection Committee will reward for a mediocre regular season.

Virginia Tech Hokies

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 19-12 (8-10)
• SOS: 67
• NCSOS: 210
• WAB: 46 (0.18)
• Last Game: L 76-72 At No. 13 Virginia
• Next Game: Vs. Wake Forest 3/10

Hokies' head coach Mike Young was visibly upset after a narrow loss at No. 13 Virginia on Saturday since he knew his team really needed that game to give themselves a legitimate bubble shot. The task ahead now requires the Hokies to win multiple games in Charlotte, beginning with a tricky first-round matchup against Wake Forest on Tuesday, with an at-large bid only a realistic possibility if they also get by Clemson and North Carolina to reach the semifinals on Friday night.

Akron Zips

• Conference: MAC
• Record: 26-5 (17-1)
• SOS: 251
• NCSOS: 270
• WAB: 61 (-1.06)
• Last Game: W 94-55 Vs. Northern Illinois
• Next Game: Vs. Buffalo 3/12

The Zips are the betting favorite to win the MAC and it is worth examining their at-large case since a loss to Miami of Ohio in the final would make this a 28-6 team with all of its losses coming to either potential tournament teams (Miami twice, Purdue, Yale, Troy) or outfits that won 20 games (Murray State). WAB will likely hold Akron back but is easy to use predictive metrics to make an argument for the Zips earning a shot over one of the middling power conference teams we've covered already.

West Virginia Mountaineers

• Conference: Big 12
• Record: 18-13 (9-9)
• SOS: 73
• NCSOS: 350
• WAB: 68 (-1.28)
• Last Game: W 77-62 Vs. UCF
• Next Game: Vs. BYU/Kansas State Winner 3/11

Having five Quad 1 wins merits inclusion in the final spot on the page but West Virginia is in some trouble thanks to a hideous non-conference schedule (350th on KenPom) and a very bad WAB due in part to two brutal conference losses (at home vs. Utah and at Kansas State). The good news is the Big 12 Tournament could serve the Mountaineers four straight opportunities in Quad 1 to bolster their WAB even further if they draw BYU in their first game.

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