Bubble Watch: Why Wins Above Bubble could be the metric to define March Madness

Sorting through what actually matters to the March Madness Selection Committee is never easy, as there are a ton of metrics for the group to sort through, including NET, Torvik, KPI, and more. One metric that has been gaining popularity over the past year or so is WAB, otherwise known as Wins Above Bubble, which the NCAA feels is a more quantifiable way to sort through bubble teams that played very different schedules.

WAB is calculated by assigning a difficulty score between 0 and 1 for every game on a team's schedule based on the opponent and the location of the game. Each win adds points to the team's total, while a loss subtracts them, with margin of victory not factored in here. The goal of the metric is to determine how many more wins a prospective at-large team would have than the average bubble team, which helps inform more of the Miami of Ohio vs. Auburn debate that Bruce Pearl triggered on TNT on Saturday.

What Wins Above Bubble says about Miami (OH)-Auburn debate

According to the latest WAB leaderboard, the Redhawks are 32nd in the country in WAB, averaging 2.22 more wins against their schedule than the average bubble team would. Auburn, which won at home against LSU on Tuesday night to improve to 16-14 overall, is 48th in the same metric with only 0.11 more wins above the bubble than an average team would have against their schedule.

The Redhawks' WAB rates well above other prospective bubble teams that are frequent fliers in this space, like Ohio State, Georgia, Santa Clara and New Mexico. With that in mind, we will be including WAB rankings in this week's edition of Bubble Watch, but first let's take a quick look at the rules of the column.

1. All records are through the conclusion of action on Tuesday of the given week, in this case March 3.
2. All metrics are also current through the conclusion of action on Tuesday.
3. Any team currently leading its conference is not eligible for bubble watch since they will be assumed to have their league's automatic bid to the tournament for the purposes of this exercise.
4. Strength of schedule figures are based on KenPom's totals. Strength Of Schedule and Non Conference Strength Of Schedule will be short-handed to SOS and NCSOS in each team's description

March Madness – Last Four Byes

SMU Mustangs

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 19-10 (8-8)
• SOS: 63
• NCSOS: 142
• WAB: 43 (0.74)
• Last Game: L 95-75 At Stanford
• Next Game: Vs. No. 22 Miami (FL) 3/4

The Mustangs are in a bit of danger after getting swept on their California trip, with a 20-point blowout at deep bubbler Stanford Saturday raising fresh questions about what SMU has actually done to merit slam-dunk inclusion in the field. Wins over North Carolina, Louisville and Texas A&M on a neutral floor should be enough to keep SMU in a good spot as long as they don't drop their regular season finale at Florida State on Saturday.

TCU Horned Frogs

• Conference: Big 12
• Record: 20-10 (10-7)
• SOS: 59
• NCSOS: 331
• WAB: 42 (0.92)
• Last Game: W 73-65 At No. 10 Texas Tech
• Next Game: Vs. Cincinnati 3/7

Winning at No. 10 Texas Tech was a huge deal for TCU, which now has a fourth Quad 1 win on the board and became the first team to beat the Red Raiders since they lost J.T. Toppin for the season. Saturday's regular-season finale against Cincinnati could also help boost the Horned Frogs' WAB ahead of the conference tournament, putting them in a very good spot.

UCLA Bruins

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 20-10 (12-7)
• SOS: 40
• NCSOS: 239
• WAB: 38 (1.35)
• Last Game: W 72-52 Vs. No. 9 Nebraska
• Next Game: At USC 3/7

No team moved the needle more on Tuesday night than UCLA, whose 20-point win over No. 9 Nebraska erased the stench of a road loss at Minnesota and pushed the Bruins out of First Four territory. Sweeping USC would be a good way for Mick Cronin's team to feel good about their bubble fate entering the Big Ten Tournament.

Santa Clara Broncos

• Conference: WCC
• Record: 24-7 (15-3)
• SOS: 90
• NCSOS: 83
• WAB: 41 (1.22)
• Last Game: W 93-72 Vs. Oregon State
• Next Game: WCC Tournament QF 3/8

This is a good example where WAB helps Santa Clara, which rates ahead of two of the teams in this group thanks to a strong performance in league play and only one bad loss on their schedule. The Broncos have a bye to the quarterfinals in the WCC Tournament, which they need to win in order to get a third crack at Saint Mary's (who they already beat once this season) to feel safe if they can't snag the league's auto bid.

March Madness – Last Four In

New Mexico Lobos

• Conference: Mountain West
• Record: 22-7 (13-5)
• SOS: 89
• NCSOS: 170
• WAB: 45 (0.42)
• Last Game: W 81-76 Vs. San Diego State
• Next Game: Vs. Colorado State 3/4

Beating San Diego State at home in a nationally televised game on CBS on Saturday was huge for the Lobos, who are back in the field after falling out due to some recent struggles. A huge WAB opportunity awaits on Saturday with a trip to Utah State, but first New Mexico has to take care of business against a down Colorado State group to avoid a loss that could make things quite dicey.

Texas A&M Aggies

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 20-10 (10-7)
• SOS: 51
• NCSOS: 318
• WAB: 44 (0.72)
• Last Game: W 96-85 Vs. Kentucky
• Next Game: At LSU 3/7

Tuesday's win over Kentucky was very important for the Aggies, who should be good but aren't quite safe thanks to mediocre non-conference scheduling numbers and a very bubbly WAB. Winning at LSU on Saturday is a must to stay in a good spot and taking care of business in at least one SEC Tournament game would be well advised.

Ohio State Buckeyes

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 18-11 (10-8)
• SOS: 23
• NCSOS: 233
• WAB: 37 (1.37)
• Last Game: W 82-74 Vs. No. 8 Purdue
• Next Game: At Penn State 3/4

Few teams were bigger winners over the weekend than Ohio State, which earned an honest-to-goodness Quad 1 victory no one can question with an eight-point home win over No. 8 Purdue. The predictive metrics have been on Ohio State's side so far this year but following that up with a sweep of their final two regular season games (at Penn State, vs. fellow bubbler Indiana) and a win in the Big Ten Tournament is necessary to avoid the risk of being bypassed due to a very high number of Quad 1 defeats (10 as of now).

VCU Rams

• Conference: Atlantic 10
• Record: 23-7 (14-3)
• SOS: 104
• NCSOS: 221
• WAB: 46 (0.36)
• Last Game: W 82-63 Vs. Fordham
• Next Game: At Dayton 3/6

Knowing how important WAB has become to the selection committee plays to the benefit of VCU, whose solid resume metrics are backed up by a positive WAB that is better than most of the teams coming up behind them. Friday night's trip to Dayton is tricky since the Flyers already took down Saint Louis but a win there could boost the Rams' WAB even more ahead of the A-10 Tournament.

March Madness – First Four Out

Indiana Hoosiers

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 17-12 (8-10)
• SOS: 39
• NCSOS: 304
• WAB: 51 (-0.11)
• Last Game: L 77-64 Vs. No. 13 Michigan State
• Next Game: Vs. Minnesota 3/4

The Hoosiers are fading fast with losses in four straight games and five of seven to fall out of the field. They are also running out of chances to change their fortunes with a no-gain home game against Minnesota (which already beat the Hoosiers this year) and a trip to Ohio State remaining before the Big Ten Tournament, where they will need a lengthy stay to offset a 4-12 record against the top two quadrants in the NET.

Auburn Tigers

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 16-14 (7-10)
• SOS: 3
• NCSOS: 26
• WAB: 48 (0.11)
• Last Game: W 88-74 Vs. LSU
• Next Game: At No. 16 Alabama 3/7

The most controversial team on the bubble, Auburn stopped the bleeding temporarily with a 14-point home win over LSU on Tuesday to hopefully break out of a 1-7 stretch, where their lone victory was a controversial one over Kentucky. The Tigers are hoping their tremendous scheduling numbers will put them over the line, but losing 14 games (which could turn into 16 if they fall at Alabama and lose in the SEC Tournament) puts them very close to no-fly territory since winning basketball games needs to matter more than merely showing up to play good teams in the SEC.

San Diego State Aztecs

• Conference: Mountain West
• Record: 19-10 (13-6)
• SOS: 75
• NCSOS: 66
• WAB: 52 (-0.44)
• Last Game: L 86-77 At Boise State
• Next Game: Vs. UNLV 3/6

Despite looking the part of a tournament team against New Mexico on Saturday, the results have not been coming for the Aztecs, who have now lost four of their past five games after falling at Boise State on Tuesday night. San Diego State also has a negative WAB, meaning they are performing nearly half a game worse than the average bubble team would against their schedule, which could mean they need to at least get to the Mountain West Tournament final to merit at-large consideration.

California Golden Bears

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 20-9 (8-8)
• SOS: 82
• NCSOS: 327
• WAB: 50 (-0.11)
• Last Game: L 72-56 Vs. Pittsburgh
• Next Game: At Georgia Tech 3/7

Losing at home by 16 to a sub-.500 Pitt team did tremendous damage to the Golden Bears, who now have a Quad 3 loss on their resume and a negative WAB. Road wins over Georgia Tech and Wake Forest won't move the needle too much so Cal needs to do most of their heavy lifting in the ACC Tournament.

March Madness – Next Four Out

West Virginia Mountaineers

• Conference: Big 12
• Record: 17-13 (8-9)
• SOS: 72
• NCSOS: 351
• WAB: 58 (-1.29)
• Last Game: L 65-63 At Kansas State
• Next Game: Vs. UCF 3/6

West Virginia has been trying to build a case to be the 9th team out of the Big 12, but their momentum came to a crashing halt with a loss at K-State, dropping their WAB down into the high 50s. Saturday's regular season finale against UCF is a must-get for the Mountaineers, who also need to do significant work in the Big 12 Tournament to get out of this range.

Seton Hall Pirates

• Conference: Big East
• Record: 20-10 (10-9)
• SOS: 76
• NCSOS: 295
• WAB: 55 (-1.02)
• Last Game: W 77-68 At Xavier
• Next Game: Vs. No. 18 St. John's 3/6

The Pirates have a right to be mad at the officials on Saturday after some seemingly one-sided calls from the refs heavily favored UCONN down the stretch, allowing the Huskies to surge back from a halftime deficit and win to deny Seton Hall a much-needed Quad 1 win. They get another Quad 1 shot on Friday against No. 18 St. John's, but with how weak their overall resume is they need a deep run at Madison Square Garden next week to have a shot, if not steal the league's auto-bid outright.

USC Trojans

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 18-11 (7-11)
• SOS: 35
• NCSOS: 205
• WAB: 47 (0.12)
• Last Game: L 82-67 Vs. No. 12 Nebraska
• Next Game: At Washington 3/4

Time is running out for the Trojans, who let a golden opportunity slip through their fingers when they lost at home by 15 to No. 12 Nebraska on Saturday. The degree of difficulty for USC to snag an at-large increased significantly with leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara departing the program, leaving the Trojans scrambling as they are dangerously close to auto-bid or bust territory in an extremely tough Big Ten.

Stanford Cardinal

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 18-11 (7-9)
• SOS: 73
• NCSOS: 190
• WAB: 61 (-1.32)
• Last Game: W 95-75 Vs. SMU
• Next Game: At Notre Dame 3/4

Beating SMU by 20 puts Stanford back on the page thanks to their impressive collection of top-end wins, with victories over Saint Louis, North Carolina, Louisville and SMU giving them four in the Quad 1 category, which is more than the likes of Ohio State and Indiana. Three hideous Q3 losses have dinged both the Cardinal's NET and WAB figures, but they have a huge Quad 1 opportunity on Saturday at NC State and could surge with a strong showing at the ACC Tournament.