Bubble Watch: Ohio State is in big trouble and running out of time

The NCAA's Top 16 Seed Reveal on Saturday drew a lot of attention for its interesting choice to put Iowa State as the final No. 1 seed ahead of Houston, but the most impactful part of that exercise is not who the committee has on what seed line. The most important information comes from the explanation's that this year's committee chair, Sun Belt commissioner Keith Gill, provided to CBS about the decisions made in the exercise.

Gill made a point to emphasize head-to-head results, which is how the Cyclones passed the Cougars in the committee's eyes, as well as the quality wins teams like Arizona and Michigan stacked up against the top two quadrants in the NET to earn their places atop the mock bracket. That kind of information is very valuable to bracketologists, who can apply what the committee is emphasizing at the top of the field to the teams fighting for the last few spots in the bracket itself.

This could apply directly to the case of a team like Ohio State, who pass the eye test as a potential tournament team and rate favorably in predictive metrics but don't have a Quad 1 victory entering their trip to Iowa on Wednesday night. Where do the Buckeyes rate on the latest edition of FanSided's Bubble Watch? Read on to find out, but first let's take a look at the rules of this column.

1. All records are through the conclusion of action on Tuesday of the given week, in this case Feb. 24.
2. All metrics are also current through the conclusion of action on Tuesday.
3. Any team currently leading its conference is not eligible for bubble watch since they will be assumed to have their league's automatic bid to the tournament for the purposes of this exercise.
4. Strength of schedule figures are based on KenPom's totals. Strength Of Schedule and Non Conference Strength Of Schedule will be short-handed to SOS and NCSOS in each team's description.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four Byes

Texas A&M Aggies

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 19-8 (9-5)
• SOS: 70
• NCSOS: 321
• Last Game: W 75-71 At Oklahoma
• Next Game: At No. 20 Arkansas 2/25

It wasn't always pretty, but the Aggies took care of their business last week with wins against Ole Miss and Oklahoma, two bottom-tier SEC teams who won't be dancing. Finding a way to split this week, either by earning their best win of the season at No. 20 Arkansas or completing a season sweep of Texas on Saturday, would move Texas A&M pretty close to lock territory.

UCLA Bruins

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 19-9 (11-6)
• SOS: 46
• NCSOS: 254
• Last Game: W 81-62 Vs. USC
• Next Game: At Minnesota 2/28

While Donovan Dent's Tyus Edney impression to upset Illinois in overtime may draw more headlines, the more impactful result for UCLA simply making the tournament may be its 19-point victory against USC on Tuesday, giving them a head-to-head leg up on their biggest rival on the bubble. The Trojans will get a chance to even the score in the final game of the regular season but UCLA has to make sure to survive a tricky trip to Minnesota first.

Auburn Tigers

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 15-13 (6-9)
• SOS: 1
• NCSOS: 26
• Last Game: L 91-79 At Oklahoma
• Next Game: Vs. Ole Miss 2/28

One of the most complicated cases the committee will have to figure out is Auburn, which put together the most difficult schedule in the country and has played 16 Quad 1 games, but they have lost 11 of those as part of 13 overall defeats. Dropping a road game by 12 at a .500 Oklahoma side is a bad look for the Tigers, who are in free fall with losses in six of their past seven games (with the lone win coming by a point over Kentucky thanks to a controversial foul call at the end), and if they hit Selection Sunday at say 17-15 (with wins over LSU and Ole Miss along with losses to Alabama and an SEC tournament foe) it may be very difficult for the committee to put them over the line.

TCU Horned Frogs

• Conference: Big 12
• Record: 18-10 (8-7)
• SOS: 63
• NCSOS: 333
• Last Game: W 90-78 Vs. Arizona State
• Next Game: At Kansas State 2/28

No bubble team came out of the seed reveal feeling better about their situation than TCU, which has an 8-8 record against the top two quadrants and a stack of high-end wins (Florida and Wisconsin on a neutral court, Iowa State) that compare favorably with anyone in the country. Two bad losses to New Orleans (Quad 4) and at Utah (Quad 3) are problematic, but as long as the Horned Frogs don't slip on any more banana peels down the stretch (like Saturday at 11-16 Kansas State) they should be in good shape to at least book a trip to Dayton in the middle of March.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four In

Santa Clara Broncos

• Conference: WCC
• Record: 23-6 (14-2)
• SOS: 93
• NCSOS: 83
• Last Game: W 94-73 At San Francisco
• Next Game: At Saint Mary's 2/25

There's nothing sexy about a road win against San Francisco but Santa Clara had to have it to make sure they didn't add another questionable loss to a resume that is carrying a Quad 4 defeat to Loyola Chicago already. Wednesday night's trip to Saint Mary's represents a massive opportunity for the Broncos, who could move within striking distance of a lock if they can complete a season sweep of the Gaels.

Indiana Hoosiers

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 17-11 (8-9)
• SOS: 38
• NCSOS: 305
• Last Game: L 72-68 Vs. Northwestern
• Next Game: Vs. Michigan State 3/1

Things are starting to get dicey for Indiana, which has dropped three straight, including a disastrous home loss to Northwestern after getting smoked on the road by both Illinois and Purdue. The best result that the Hoosiers have away from Assembly Hall is an overtime win at UCLA, which may not be good enough if they keep stumbling down the stretch.

Missouri Tigers

• Conference: SEC
• Record: 19-9 (9-6)
• SOS: 50
• NCSOS: 344
• Last Game: W 73-69 Vs. No. 22 Tennessee
• Next Game: At Mississippi State 2/28

Going 2-1 in a stretch of three straight games against ranked teams moves Missouri back into the field, and they are now better positioned to stay thanks to a 9-9 record against the top two quadrants and no bad losses. Taking care of their next two games against Mississippi State and Oklahoma would bring the Tigers up to 21 wins and guarantee a winning record in SEC play, which should be good enough to get them out of Dayton entirely.

New Mexico Lobos

• Conference: Mountain West
• Record: 21-7 (12-5)
• SOS: 90
• NCSOS: 148
• Last Game: L 67-60 At Nevada
• Next Game: Vs. San Diego State 2/28

A road loss at Nevada did some damage for New Mexico, which is clinging to the last spot in the field for dear life. Saturday's home date against San Diego State is critical for both teams as the winner assumes the pole position for the second bid in what could be a very light showing for the Mountain West on Selection Sunday.

March Madness Bubble Watch - First Four Out

California Golden Bears

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 19-8 (7-7)
• SOS: 81
• NCSOS: 325
• Last Game: W 72-66 Vs. Stanford
• Next Game: Vs. SMU 2/25

A pitiful non-conference schedule may come back to haunt Cal, which saw its one good win over UCLA get offset by a brutal loss to Kansas State that has aged horribly. Wednesday's game against SMU is the Golden Bears' last chance to make a mark before the ACC Tournament, especially with a few potential land mines against Pitt and especially at Georgia Tech still looming to trip them up.

Ohio State Buckeyes

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 17-10 (9-7)
• SOS: 34
• NCSOS: 229
• Last Game: L 66-60 At No. 15 Michigan State
• Next Game: At Iowa 2/25

Nobody may be happier about Northwestern's upset of Indiana than Ohio State, which sees their road win against the 12-16 Wildcats morph into a Quad 1 victory, which illustrates how stacked the NET's rankings are towards power conference teams. Assuming Northwestern regresses back to Quad 2 territory, the Buckeyes will be well advised to add a true Quad 1 through either traditional means (winning one of at Iowa/vs. Purdue/a Big Ten Tournament game) or hoping that their home win over Wisconsin becomes Quad 1 through a late season Badgers' surge, which could make Ohio State this year's North Carolina-style resume to land in Dayton.

San Diego State Aztecs

• Conference: Mountain West
• Record: 18-8 (12-4)
• SOS: 77
• NCSOS: 62
• Last Game: L 83-74 At Colorado State
• Next Game: Vs. Utah State 2/25

A loss at Colorado State, which is having a down year, knocks the Aztecs out of the field for now but their strong predictive metrics keep them alive here. Getting at least one of their two Quad 1 opportunities this week (vs. Utah State on Wednesday or at New Mexico on Saturday) could go a long way for San Diego State.

VCU Rams

• Conference: Atlantic 10
• Record: 21-7 (12-3)
• SOS: 90
• NCSOS: 148
• Last Game: L 88-75 At No. 18 Saint Louis
• Next Game: Vs. Fordham 2/28

The Rams missed their opportunity to take down Saint Louis for a Quad 1 win but the Billikens' loss at Dayton does keep the door open for VCU to snag the Atlantic 10's regular season title if they win out and Saint Louis trips up a few more times. In all likelihood, the loss on Friday means it will be auto-bid or bust for the Rams at this point.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Next Four Out

USC Trojans

• Conference: Big Ten
• Record: 18-10 (7-10)
• SOS: 36
• NCSOS: 209
• Last Game: L 81-62 At UCLA
• Next Game: At No. 12 Nebraska 2/28

An ill-timed four-game losing streak, including a disastrous road loss at 10-17 Oregon, may serve to pop the bubble for the Trojans. A road win at Wisconsin is the best that USC has to offer the committee at this point, making Saturday's trip to No. 12 Nebraska a must-get if USC wants to avoid needing to win the Big Ten Tournament to go dancing.

Seton Hall Pirates

• Conference: Big East
• Record: 19-9 (9-8)
• SOS: 75
• NCSOS: 297
• Last Game: W 51-47 Vs. Georgetown
• Next Game: At No. 6 UCONN 2/28

Barely scraping by Georgetown at home keeps the Pirates in a holding pattern as they have taken up residence in the next four out category for a bit. Seton Hall needs to at least split its two huge Quad 1 games (at UCONN Saturday and the regular season finale vs. St. John's on March 6) as well as win at Xavier to have a shot at entering the Big East Tournament with at-large possibilities.

Cincinnati Bearcats

• Conference: Big 12
• Record: 15-13 (7-8)
• SOS: 39
• NCSOS: 262
• Last Game: L 80-68 At No. 16 Texas Tech
• Next Game: Vs. Oklahoma State 2/28

Wes Miller was on the hot seat before a well-timed four-game winning streak that included a road win at Kansas by 16 put the Bearcats back in the bubble conversation before a 12-point loss at No. 16 Texas Tech stopped their momentum. A home win over Iowa State earlier this season does also add to Cincinnati's case, and if they can win their last three games they would add two more Quad 1 wins to their ledger against BYU and fellow bubbler TCU.

Virginia Tech Hokies

• Conference: ACC
• Record: 18-10 (7-8)
• SOS: 68
• NCSOS: 219
• Last Game: W 82-63 Vs. Wake Forest
• Next Game: At No. 18 North Carolina 2/28

The Hokies are still hanging out here because their resume is decent enough with two huge road games to impress the committee against North Carolina and Virginia, who Virginia Tech beat in Blacksburg earlier this season. A road win against fading Clemson is the only other bright spot on Virginia Tech's resume, which could leave them in a position where they need to get both road games to avoid needing the auto-bid in the ACC Tournament.

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