While a soft bubble is helping keep many middling teams afloat, one storyline to track down the stretch is how the SEC follows up last year's record-setting NCAA Tournament performance. 14 of the SEC's 16 teams earned bids to the dance last season, with two Final Four entrants and the national champion in Florida.
There was a natural dip after a historically strong season for the SEC, but the conference is still receiving a ton of respect in advanced metrics, which is interesting since there are far fewer tournament locks for the league than there were at this point last season. Five SEC teams (Oklahoma, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina and Ole Miss) are likely auto-bid or bust now while the top five (Florida, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Alabama) are safe, leaving a mushy middle of six teams in various states of bubble-dom.
How does the SEC fare in the latest edition of FanSided's Bubble Watch? Read on to find out, but first let's offer a quick refresher on the rules of this column:
- All records are through the conclusion of action on Tuesday of the given week, in this case Feb. 17.
- All metrics are also current through the conclusion of action on Tuesday.
- Any team currently leading its conference is not eligible for bubble watch since they will be assumed to have their league's automatic bid to the tournament for the purposes of this exercise.
- Strength of schedule figures are based on KenPom's totals. Strength Of Schedule and Non Conference Strength Of Schedule will be short-handed to SOS and NCSOS in each team's description.
March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four Byes
SMU Mustangs
- Conference: ACC
- Record: 18-8 (7-6)
- SOS: 36
- NCSOS: 136
- Last Game: W 95-85 Vs. No. 21 Louisville
- Next Game: Vs. Boston College 2/21
Tuesday's win over No. 21 Louisville was a big one for SMU, which needed to offset a bad loss at Syracuse that could end up in Quad 3 by the end of the year. Given the very soft state of the bubble, adding a win over the Cardinals to a home win over North Carolina and a neutral site victory over fellow bubbler Texas A&M should help keep the Mustangs above the true bubble fray if they take care of business down the stretch.
Texas A&M Aggies
- Conference: SEC
- Record: 17-8 (7-5)
- SOS: 70
- NCSOS: 321
- Last Game: L 82-69 At No. 19 Vanderbilt
- Next Game: Vs. Ole Miss 2/18
It seems like a long time ago that the Aggies were atop the SEC as a four-game skid against tournament-caliber teams has exposed the flaws in Texas A&M's resume. A poor non-conference schedule has left the Aggies holding a collection of good wins against fellow SEC bubblers Auburn, Texas and Georgia, which could leave them vulnerable to getting passed if teams below them get hot.
Georgia Bulldogs
- Conference: SEC
- Record: 18-8 (6-7)
- SOS: 62
- NCSOS: 336
- Last Game: W 86-78 At Kentucky
- Next Game: Vs. Texas 2/21
Scoring a road win at Rupp Arena could be a nice spark for Georgia, which entered the contest losers of five of six to fall out of the Top 25 into true bubble territory. Securing a season split with Texas on Saturday, which beat them by 20 in Austin a few weeks ago, would also do a lot to fortify the Bulldogs' resume.
Santa Clara Broncos
- Conference: WCC
- Record: 22-6 (13-2)
- SOS: 89
- NCSOS: 83
- Last Game: L 94-86 Vs. No. 12 Gonzaga
- Next Game: At San Francisco 2/21
The Broncos were very competitive against No. 12 Gonzaga on Saturday night but fell short, dropping them out of first place in the WCC and back into the bubble picture. Advanced metrics are high on the Broncos and they pass the eye test if you watch their games, but with only three regular season games left (at San Francisco, at Saint Mary's, Oregon State), Santa Clara really needs to run the table to have a shot to get a bye directly to the semifinals and avoid more opportunities to add a bad loss to their ledger.
NET | Quad 1 Record | Quad 2 Record | Quad 3/4 Record | Road/Neutral Record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SMU | 33 | 4-7 | 3-1 | 11-0 | 4-6 |
Texas A&M | 43 | 3-6 | 4-2 | 10-0 | 5-5 |
Georgia | 39 | 4-6 | 5-1 | 9-1 | 7-4 |
Santa Clara | 40 | 1-4 | 5-1 | 15-1 | 9-5 |
March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four In
UCLA Bruins
- Conference: Big Ten
- Record: 17-9 (9-6)
- SOS: 53
- NCSOS: 272
- Last Game: L 82-59 At No. 15 Michigan State
- Next Game: Vs. No. 10 Illinois 2/21
The Michigan trip went rather poorly for the Bruins, who lost to No. 2 Michigan by 30 and No. 15 Michigan State by 23. Both defeats count as Quad 1 losses for UCLA, which isn't the worst thing in the world, but taking down No. 10 Illinois at home on Saturday night would be a nice reminder for the selection committee that the Bruins are capable of beating top teams.
San Diego State Aztecs
- Conference: Mountain West
- Record: 18-7 (12-3)
- SOS: 77
- NCSOS: 64
- Last Game: L 73-63 Vs. Grand Canyon
- Next Game: At Colorado State 2/21
Grand Canyon is in the Mountain West now and trying to make its own last minute bubble push, helping their cause at the expense of San Diego State, which has good scheduling numbers but is closer to the cut line than usual thanks to a cumulative seven losses at this point. A home date against Utah State next week is a massive opportunity for the Aztecs to move further up the bracket but they cannot afford to look past a trip to Colorado State on Saturday, which is a must-win since a loss would likely put the Aztecs out of the field at this point in the next Bubble Watch column.
USC Trojans
- Conference: Big Ten
- Record: 18-7 (7-7)
- SOS: 44
- NCSOS: 204
- Last Game: L 89-82 At Ohio State
- Next Game: Vs. No. 10 Illinois 2/18
Dropping a road game at Ohio State was bad news for the Trojans, who now gave the committee a head-to-head result to use against them if it comes down to USC and the Buckeyes for an at-large spot. A Quad 3 loss at home to Northwestern is also dragging down USC, which has a big opportunity to make a mark when they welcome No. 10 Illinois to town on Wednesday night.
TCU Horned Frogs
- Conference: Big 12
- Record: 16-10 (6-7)
- SOS: 49
- NCSOS: 334
- Last Game: L 82-71 At UCF
- Next Game: Vs. West Virginia 2/21
A strong collection of three high-end wins (Florida and Wisconsin on a neutral floor and a victory over No. 5 Iowa State last week) give the Horned Frogs the last spot for now, but there are some ugly losses (home to New Orleans and Notre Dame plus a road loss at Utah) which could give the committee pause. Saturday's visit from West Virginia, which is making a push towards the bubble itself, is a game that TCU really needs to secure its position.
NET | Quad 1 Record | Quad 2 Record | Quad 3/4 Record | Road/Neutral Record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UCLA | 41 | 2-7 | 4-2 | 11-0 | 3-8 |
San Diego State | 44 | 1-4 | 5-2 | 11-1 | 6-5 |
USC | 47 | 2-5 | 7-1 | 8-1 | 9-4 |
TCU | 48 | 5-7 | 2-1 | 9-2 | 5-5 |
March Madness Bubble Watch - First Four Out
New Mexico Lobos
- Conference: Mountain West
- Record: 20-6 (11-4)
- SOS: 92
- NCSOS: 148
- Last Game: W 98-61 Vs. Air Force
- Next Game: At Fresno State 2/21
Getting swept by Boise State and a problematic loss to New Mexico State has New Mexico as the first team out of the field. Two of the Lobos' final three games can lift them over the cut line (vs. San Diego State and at Utah State), but to get there they have to survive a two-game trip to Fresno State and Nevada that offer more potential landmines for their resume.
Ohio State Buckeyes
- Conference: Big Ten
- Record: 17-9 (9-6)
- SOS: 37
- NCSOS: 228
- Last Game: W 86-69 Vs. No. 24 Wisconsin
- Next Game: At No. 15 Michigan State 2/22
The Buckeyes got their best win of the season when they beat up No. 24 Wisconsin by 17 on Tuesday night, but because it came in Columbus it doesn't qualify for Quad 1 status yet since the Badgers are 35th in the NET. That 0-8 mark in Quad 1 games remains the biggest hurdle for Ohio State's tournament bid but they can definitely add a 1 to that win column by taking down No. 15 Michigan State in East Lansing on Sunday.
California Golden Bears
- Conference: ACC
- Record: 18-8 (6-7)
- SOS: 79
- NCSOS: 327
- Last Game: W 86-75 At Boston College
- Next Game: Vs. Stanford 2/21
Hanging on for a road win at feisty Boston College was a season-saver for Cal, which may have fallen off the bubble entirely if they got swept on that East Coast trip after losing to Syracuse. The next two games the Golden Bears have against Stanford and SMU are the last real chances they have to impress the Selection Committee prior to the ACC Tournament.
VCU Rams
- Conference: Atlantic 10
- Record: 21-6 (12-2)
- SOS: 109
- NCSOS: 218
- Last Game: W 89-75 Vs. George Washington
- Next Game: At No. 20 Saint Louis 2/20
The Rams picked up their 10th straight win against George Washington to move within a half-game of No. 18 Saint Louis for the A-10 lead after the Billikens were upset at Rhode Island on Tuesday. Those two teams are set to meet up in St. Louis on Friday night and VCU really needs to get that win to not only grab first place in the conference but maximize their odds of snagging an at-large if they lose in the A-10 tournament.
NET | Quad 1 Record | Quad 2 Record | Quad 3/4 Record | Road/Neutral Record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Mexico | 42 | 2-4 | 6-1 | 11-1 | 7-4 |
Ohio State | 38 | 0-8 | 6-1 | 11-0 | 5-6 |
California | 61 | 4-5 | 0-3 | 13-0 | 4-5 |
VCU | 45 | 0-4 | 5-2 | 16-0 | 8-4 |
March Madness Bubble Watch - Next Four Out
Missouri Tigers
- Conference: SEC
- Record: 17-8 (7-5)
- SOS: 72
- NCSOS: 347
- Last Game: L 85-68 Vs. Texas
- Next Game: Vs. No. 19 Vanderbilt 2/18
Losing at home to fellow bubbler Texas by 17 is a bad look for Missouri, which is desperately clinging to a 2-point win over Florida in its SEC opener as proof of concept for their NCAA Tournament hopes. It has been a while since the Tigers had one of those "wow" victories to remind everyone they belong in March Madness and have an opportunity to get one on Wednesday night with No. 19 Vanderbilt coming to town.
Virginia Tech Hokies
- Conference: ACC
- Record: 17-10 (6-8)
- SOS: 60
- NCSOS: 220
- Last Game: L 67-66 At Miami
- Next Game: Vs. Wake Forest 2/21
Hope is fading fast for the Hokies, who lost by a point at Miami to drop their fourth game in their last five tries, a run that includes a disastrous home loss to Florida State by 23. Two massive opportunities remain for Virginia Tech in road trips to North Carolina and Virginia, but the Hokies haven't shown the kind of NCAA Tournament form necessary to win those kinds of games in a while.
Seton Hall Pirates
- Conference: Big East
- Record: 18-8 (8-7)
- SOS: 73
- NCSOS: 293
- Last Game: W 63-56 At Butler
- Next Game: Vs. DePaul 2/18
We're in a holding pattern with the Pirates, who did a ton of damage to their resume with a slump early in Big East play and are now simply trying to hold serve before they get another shot at UCONN and St. John's. Sweeping this week's home stand against DePaul and Georgetown is a must to ensure Seton Hall gets up to 20 wins before they head to Storrs next week.
Grand Canyon Lopes
- Conference: Mountain West
- Record: 17-9 (10-5)
- SOS: 90
- NCSOS: 305
- Last Game: W 73-63 At San Diego State
- Next Game: Vs. Wyoming 2/21
The Lopes are now on the page after a 10-point road win at San Diego State to complete a season sweep of the Aztecs, which gives them three Quad 1 wins thanks to a home victory over Utah State. A few bad losses (including a Quad 4 loss to Youngstown State) are dragging down Grand Canyon's NET, but they have another shot at Utah State coming and can make things interesting if they reach the Mountain West tournament as a top four seed.
NET | Quad 1 Record | Quad 2 Record | Quad 3/4 Record | Road/Neutral Record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Missouri | 65 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 11-0 | 4-6 |
Virginia Tech | 56 | 3-8 | 4-1 | 10-1 | 5-7 |
Seton Hall | 50 | 1-5 | 5-2 | 12-1 | 7-5 |
Grand Canyon | 69 | 3-4 | 3-3 | 11-2 | 6-6 |