Selection Sunday is less than 30 days away and everyone has their opinions on who the top national title contenders are. Bracketologists are also keeping an eye on which teams can shake up the proceedings in the NCAA Tournament and our biggest bracket buster may well be the Wisconsin Badgers.
The Big Ten has the chance to send at least 10 teams dancing, including legitimate title contenders like Michigan and Illinois, but there may not be a scarier team to see across from your bracket than the No. 24 Badgers, who toppled both of those teams (along with Michigan State) already this season. As a result, there's no question that Wisconsin is firmly on the rise in the latest edition of FanSided's College Basketball Stock Watch.
College Basketball Stock Watch: Rising
Wisconsin
There are some confounding losses on Wisconsin's resume, including an 11-point home loss to Big 12 bubbler TCU in November, but fewer teams have higher top-end wins than the Badgers. Being the only team to take down the Wolverines (in Ann Arbor no less) is already a strong start for Wisconsin, but their overtime win at Illinois and beatdown of Michigan State on Friday night reminded everyone why the Badgers are a team no one wants to see in March.
A prolific offense is the key for Wisconsin, which knocked down 15 threes in each of those three ranked victories. Seeing a team brimming with confidence from knocking off elite competition that can knock down triples at a high clip is the doomsday scenario for some of the presumed title contenders, so don't be shocked if the Badgers ride the momentum from this week into a deep NCAA Tournament run.
Florida
A two-point loss at Missouri to kick off SEC play feels like a long time ago for No. 12 Florida, which has established itself as the league's most consistent team at this point. The reigning national champs earned their 10th victory in 11 games with a nine-point win over then-No. 25 Kentucky on Saturday, putting them in sole possession of first place in the SEC with six games to go.
Early panic over a sluggish start in non-conference play looks silly in retrospect since three of the four losses Florida had out of the league came against national title contenders like Arizona, Duke and UCONN. That experience proved to be quite valuable for a team integrating new pieces in their backcourt and the Gators now look poised to be a potential March dark horse as they thrive against a strong conference schedule.
Purdue
It's hard to remember that No. 7 Purdue was actually the preseason No. 1 team, but a few bad losses along the way have dropped the Boilermakers out of the title contender tier. Matt Painter's group is still a very good basketball team and surged six spots in this week's AP Top 25 poll following impressive road victories at then-No. 7 Nebraska and Iowa, another potential tournament team.
If the Boilermakers can demonstrate that their three-game losing streak against UCLA, Illinois and Indiana was a blip on the radar there is a lot to like for them, who have already earned good victories against Alabama, Texas Tech (which has beaten three of the top four teams in the country already) and Auburn in non-conference play. Five of Purdue's final six games come against potential NCAA Tournament teams, beginning tonight with a visit from No. 1 Michigan, offering the Boilermakers an opportunity to remind everyone who hopes were so high for them in November.
Non-Conference Games In February
The end of the SEC/Big 12 challenge in 2022 seemed to bring an end to the idea of staging marquee non-conference games in January or February, which is a shame since events like that are a fun way to break up the monotony of league play. The trend seems to be changing a bit thanks in part to No. 3 Duke, which made headlines with a matchup against Illinois at Madison Square Garden last February, as Jon Scheyer wanted his team to get a tournament-worthy opponent in February since the ACC had been in a down cycle.
The Blue Devils set up another of these games this season and it will be an absolute doozy as they take on No. 1 Michigan in Washington D.C. on Saturday night, creating arguably the most anticipated regular season game in years. Other teams have begun to embrace this trend, as Ohio State and No. 15 Virginia played a great game in Nashville last weekend while Baylor recently took on No. 24 Louisville, and if that experience helps teams go far in the NCAA Tournament we may see more programs save one of their non-conference dates for a February weekend in the future.
College Basketball Stock Watch: Falling
Arizona
Almost every team has dealt with some adversity this season and it's Arizona's turn to have a mini crisis. A two-loss week to Kansas and Texas Tech dropped the Wildcats down to No. 4 in this week's polls and will force Tommy Lloyd to navigate an injury situation as Koa Peat departed Saturday's loss to the Red Raiders with a leg injury.
The road ahead won't be any easier for Arizona in the rugged Big 12 as four of their next five games are against ranked opponents, including Wednesday night's visit from No. 23 BYU and a trip on Saturday to No. 3 Houston, which figures to be quite angry after falling at No. 6 Iowa State on Monday. The strong work Arizona did in non-conference play should keep their place on the top line secure for now but don't be shocked if the Wildcats emerge from the end of the regular season with at least four total losses.
Clemson
Losing twice in a week when you're sitting near the bottom of the AP Top 25 is a good way to fall out of the poll but Clemson's performance last week did raise some red flags. Losing at home by 10 to a very bubbly Virginia Tech team was not a good look for the Tigers, who followed it up by being a step behind Duke all game as they fell by 13 to the best team in the conference on Saturday.
Part of the issue for Clemson is that they play incredibly slowly, ranking 330th nationally in adjusted tempo according to KenPom, so they have a proclivity for playing close games. If the Tigers aren't hitting their shots in those games, which can happen against strong defensive teams like the Blue Devils, they can find themselves quite vulnerable to getting picked off.
Ohio State
Saturday's 80-76 loss to Virginia was another close but no cigar game for Ohio State, which is squarely on the bubble once again under Jake Diebler. A 16-9 overall record with an 8-6 mark in the rugged Big Ten and a NET of 38 all seem like fairly debatable resume points, but the thing that sticks out for the Buckeyes is their 0-8 record in Quad 1 games, which is usually a no fly for potential tournament teams.
The next four games on Ohio State's schedule qualify as Quad 1 opportunities, beginning on Tuesday with a visit from red-hot No. 24 Wisconsin before traveling to East Lansing to take on slumping No. 15 Michigan State. Failing to get either of those games would put the Buckeyes at 0-10 in Quad 1 games, which is going to be very hard to overcome if they are still sitting on the bubble in three weeks.
The Bubble
The only reason that teams like Ohio State are legitimate bubble candidates is because the need to fill a 68-team bracket combined with the influx of talent into power conferences thanks to NIL has created a very soft bubble. Few true mid-majors have legitimate at-large opportunities as the Mountain West is in a down cycle and the A-10 doesn't have a strong candidate outside of someone swiping the auto bid from No. 18 Saint Louis, leaving a dogpile of middling teams from the ACC, Big Ten, SEC and Big 12 jockeying for the final spots in March Madness.
Sorting through the resumes of teams like Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Cal, Missouri and TCU is the equivalent of picking your favorite brand of vanilla ice cream. The lack of true competition for these bubble spots makes the idea of expanding the tournament beyond 68 teams quite ludicrous, which is unfortunate since the quest for money at all costs from power conferences threatens to devalue both the tournament and the college basketball regular season as well.