The long and winding road that is the college basketball regular season has officially come to an end. The bubble remains an absolute mess entering Champ Week, with bid thieves lurking around several prominent corners, but the cream of the crop appears fairly well defined entering the postseason.
The consensus among most experts has Duke, Arizona and Michigan locked into three of the top four seeds, but the fourth remains up for grabs as some late stumbles from UConn may open the door for Florida or others to claim a spot on the top line. The Gators beat Kentucky at Rupp Arena on Saturday to end the regular season on an 11-game winning streak, which should help them leapfrog the Huskies in the final AP Top 25 poll of the season set to drop on Monday afternoon.
How will those rankings shake out? Read on for projections of the rankings below with more detailed analysis to come of the most impactful results of the week that was.
Projected AP Top 25 Rankings After The End Of The Regular Season
1. Duke Blue Devils
2. Arizona Wildcats
3. Michigan Wolverines
4. Florida Gators
5. Houston Cougars
6. UCONN Huskies
7. Iowa State Cyclones
8. Illinois Fighting Illini
9. Michigan State Spartans
10. Virginia Cavaliers
11. Nebraska Cornhuskers
12. Gonzaga Bulldogs
13. St. John's Red Storm
14. Miami (OH) Redhawks
15. Arkansas Razorbacks
16. Kansas Jayhawks
17. Alabama Crimson Tide
18. North Carolina Tar Heels
19. Texas Tech Red Raiders
20. Purdue Boilermakers
21. Saint Mary's Gaels
22. Vanderbilt Commodores
23. Wisconsin Badgers
24. Miami (FL) Hurricanes
25. TCU Horned Frogs
Florida closes strong against Kentucky
The biggest threat to the top three teams in the poll may well be the reigning national champions, who took a bit to find themselves but are now firing on all cylinders. No. 5 Florida picked off Kentucky 84-77 at Rupp Arena to secure their 11th win in a row and take home the SEC's regular-season crown in the process.
The five starters for the Gators combined for all but 10 of Florida's points, with potential NBA lottery pick Thomas Haugh leading the team in both scoring (20) and rebounding (9). With UConn's shocking loss to Marquette (which you can read more about below), the Gators should pass the Huskies in the polls and may have a leg up on them for the final No. 1 seed despite losing a non-conference matchup to Dan Hurley's team back in December.
UConn stumbles at the worst possible time
Few teams outside of the bubble picture took a more costly defeat on Saturday than No. 4 UConn, which shockingly fell 68-62 to an unranked Marquette team that entered the contest with an 11-19 record. Hurley was ejected at the end of the game, perhaps hoping to wake up his team ahead of the Big East Tournament in New York this week.
The defeat added an ugly loss to the Huskies' ledger and cost them a share of the Big East's regular-season title, which No. 18 St. John's won outright thanks to a win over Seton Hall on Friday night. Even though they own a 27-4 record and would look like a worthy No. 1 seed, UConn's inconsistent form could point to an early exit in March Madness.
Duke gets costly revenge against North Carolina
One of the few blemishes for No. 1 Duke this season came in early February, when Seth Trimble beat the buzzer to hand the Blue Devils just their second loss of the year. Jon Scheyer's team hasn't lost since, winning eight straight to end the regular season — including a 76-61 victory over No. 18 North Carolina on Saturday night to exact some revenge on the Heels.
The win came with a cost though, as two valuable rotation members for Duke, Patrick Ngbonga II and Caleb Foster, left the night with walking boots. Scheyer said that both will likely receive rest through the ACC Tournament this week, which is worth monitoring since it will be much harder for the Blue Devils to mount a national title run without them.
Miami (Ohio) completes a historic season
The most thrilling game of the week came on Friday night in the MAC, as No. 19 Miami (Ohio) picked up a 110-108 overtime victory over bitter rival Ohio in Athens to complete an undefeated regular season. The win was the first time the RedHawks have won in the Convocation Center in 15 years, and should bring an end to the ridiculous discourse that Miami is a bubble team if they don't win the MAC Tournament this week.
Only six teams have completed an undefeated regular season since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, which is proof that the idea that anyone could run the table with a schedule as soft as the Miami's is nonsense. The MAC has a chance at being a two-bid league if Akron can upset the RedHawks in Cleveland in the championship game on Saturday, but there is no chance a loss will keep Miami out. Winning games is still the primary objective here, and snubbing the RedHawks after just one loss (or even sending them to Dayton for the First Four, an outcome that has been floated as well) would tell 75 percent of the country that nothing they do in the regular season matters.
Wisconsin extends Purdue's funk
The trickiest team to figure out in March Madness brackets may well be Wisconsin, which has some outstanding wins along with some really bad losses. The Badgers picked up a 97-93 victory at No. 15 Purdue on Saturday to give them wins against four of the Big Ten's powerhouses (Michigan, Illinois, Purdue and Michigan State, with the first three on the road) to go along with losses to Big Ten bubblers (USC, Indiana, Ohio State) and a 14-point setback at lowly Oregon.
The bigger takeaway here is that it is time to sound the alarms for the Boilermakers, who were the No. 1 team in the preseason poll but have limped down the stretch to the tune of a 6-7 record since Jan. 20. The slump knocked Purdue out of the top four seeds in the Big Ten Tournament, and there is a good chance the Boilermakers are trending towards an early exit in the NCAA tourney.