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Men's college basketball rankings: Projected AP Top 25 after NBA Draft withdrawal deadline

The NBA Draft withdrawal deadline has come and gone. How do the Top 25 teams look as head into the next phase of the college basketball offseason?
Mississippi State v Florida
Mississippi State v Florida | James Gilbert/GettyImages

Key Points

Bullet point summary by AI

  • The NBA Draft withdrawal deadline has clarified rosters and reshaped the projected AP Top 25 for men's college basketball.
  • Key decisions from players returning to school have altered the top of the rankings, created new contenders in major conferences and moved Florida to No. 1.
  • The next few weeks will reveal how active the transfer portal remains as teams finalize their lineups for the upcoming season.

The NBA Draft declaration deadline has come and gone, meaning the majoirty of player movement towards the pros is now complete. The transfer portal is still active, with former Iowa State star Milan Momcilovic opting to stay in school and remain the top portal target, Having clarity on the status of several draft prospects is a key milestone in the college basketball offseason, with focus now shifting to how teams assemble their new rosters to get ready for the upcoming season.

Things have changed a bit since the last time we did a projected Top 25 after the transfer portal closed. A few key decisions have helped shake things up a bit, including a new top team to unseat reigning champion Michigan.

Projected Top 25 after the NBA Draft Withdrawal Deadline

1. Florida Gators
2. Michigan Wolverines
3. Duke Blue Devils
4. UConn Huskies
5. Michigan State Spartans
6. Illinois Fighting Illini
7. Gonzaga Bulldogs
8. Arizona Wildcats
9. Texas Longhorns
10. Virginia Cavaliers
11. Louisville Cardinals
12. Houston Cougars
13. St. John's Red Storm
14. Tennessee Volunteers
15. Arkansas Razorbacks
16. Iowa State Cyclones
17. Kansas Jayhawks
18. Alabama Crimson Tide
19. Purdue Boilermakers
20. Miami (FL) Hurricanes
21. USC Trojans
22. Vanderbilt Commodores
23. North Carolina Tar Heels
24. Ohio State Buckeyes
25. BYU Cougars

Reuben Chinyelu's return means the Gators are No. 1

The biggest domino to fall from the NBA Draft deadline was the decision of Florida forward Reuben Chinyelu to return to school. There was a good chance that Chinyelu was going to land towards the end of the first round if he remained in the draft, but staying in school was a smarter financial play since he can make more NIL money playing for Florida than being a back-end first round pick.

Chinyelu solidifies a strong front line for the Gators, who already have Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh back. Kentucky transfer Denzel Aberdeen is back to his old stomping grounds as well, giving Florida the strongest starting five in the country and enough firepower to surpass a Michigan group that lost its entire front line to the NBA Draft.

Duke gains a valuable shooter with John Blackwell

Wisconsin Badgers guard John Blackwell
Wisconsin Badgers guard John Blackwell | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

The Blue Devils were the victims of a draft decision last year when Cedric Coward opted to stay in the NBA Draft instead of transferring in from Washington State. Coward's call was the correct one when he was taken in the lottery by Memphis, but Duke got their transfer this year when former Wisconsin guard John Blackwell pulled out of the draft to head to Durham.

Blackwell averaged 19.1 points per game for the Badgers a year ago and adds some much-needed perimeter shooting to the Blue Devils' lineup. While Cameron Boozer expectedly went pro, adding Blackwell to the established core makes Duke the clear ACC favorite once again.

Jeremy Fears Jr. could be the early Wooden Award front-runner

Michigan State guard Jeremy Fears Jr.
Michigan State guard Jeremy Fears Jr. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tom Izzo and Michigan State love to build a roster through retention and development, turning less-heralded three or four star recruits into elite collegians. The latest example of that is guard Jeremy Fears Jr, who wisely bypassed the potential of being a second-round pick to return to East Lansing.

Fears has the potential to be the favorite to win the Player of the Year awards entering the season and his presence allows the rest of the deep Spartans group to establish themselves as role players. The top of the Big Ten is rough with Michigan and Illinois retaining a ton of talent but the fact Fears stayed means Michigan State is in that conversation.

St. John's strikes gold in the portal with Tounde Yessoufou

Baylor Bears guard Tounde Yessoufou
Baylor Bears guard Tounde Yessoufou | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

There has already been some international flavor to St. John's recruiting this spring as they went overseas to land point guard Quinn Ellis, a veteran of the Euroleague. The big win for them came on Thursday, when former Baylor guard Tounde Yessoufou pulled out of the draft and committed to play for Rick Pitino.

Yessoufou, who averaged 17.8 points and 5.9 rebounds per game as a freshman for the Bears, is athletic enough that he had a good shot to be a late first round pick. The addition of Yessoufou means that the Red Storm are pivoting from a forward-centered team to a guard-led one with Yessoufou, Ellis and Ian Jackson that has a chance to be great in the Big East.

Tyler Tanner will keep Vanderbilt in the Top 25

Vanderbilt Commodores guard Tyler Tanner
Vanderbilt Commodores guard Tyler Tanner | BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Nobody had a bigger rise last season in prospect circles that Vanderbilt's Tyler Tanner, who played a key role in the Commodores' run to the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. Tanner had the potential to be a late first round pick in the draft, but concerns over his size made it a wise call to go back to Vanderbilt for his junior year.

There is a good chance that Tanner can land on the All-SEC first team if he builds on his tremendous sophomore campaign, where he averaged 19.5 points and 5.1 assists per game. There is also a chance Tanner can reach All-American status, which would mean that the Commodores greatly exceed their ranking in the 20s in this projection.

North Carolina loses Henri Veesaar to the NBA

North Carolina Tar Heels center Henri Veesaar
North Carolina Tar Heels center Henri Veesaar | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Everyone expected Caleb Wilson to go pro as a projected lottery pick, but seeing Henri Veesaar keep his name in the draft was a disappointing turn of events for the Tar Heels. There was some hope that the addition of new coach Michael Malone, who helped Nikola Jokic become a star in Denver, could convince Veesaar to stay but those hopes were a bit overstated.

There is still a talented group heading to Chapel Hill for Malone's first season, including Virginia Tech transfer Neoklis Avdalas, but the ceiling is considerably lower with Veesaar off to the NBA. Malone will need to do some strong development work to get his group to challenge a loaded Duke squad atop the ACC.

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