Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Michigan is positioned as the top contender for next season's national championship following their dominant title win, with returning players and new faces.
- The NCAA transfer portal is set to close tonight, freezing roster movements and finalizing teams' compositions for the upcoming season.
- Dusty May's strategy for the Wolverines hinges on critical NBA Draft decisions that could either solidify their lineup or force strategic adjustments.
It's been just over two weeks since Michigan secure the national championship in dominant fashion, but the attention around college basketball has surrounded the transfer portal. After years of starting the portal in the tournament, the NCAA changed course to push entry until after the conclusion of the season, which worked better for teams fighting for a title.
The portal is set to close at midnight tonight, meaning no one will be able to enter after this point, but anyone already in the portal has an unlimited time to try and find a new program. A lot of big names have already found new homes, like Flory Bidunga landing at Louisville, but (shocker) the Wolverines are well set up to repeat as champs.
The biggest remaining uncertainty in terms of eligibility is the NBA Draft, with players on the fringe of first round selection weighing whether it would be more beneficial to go pro or stay in school to cash a big NIL check. With that in mind, let's look at a way-too-early Top 25 for next season, starting with the reigning national champs.
Way-too-early top 25 with the transfer portal closing
1. Michigan Wolverines
2. UConn Huskies
3. Illinois Fighting Illini
4. Duke Blue Devils
5. Florida Gators
6. Michigan State Spartans
7. Arizona Wildcats
8. Gonzaga Bulldogs
9. Arkansas Razorbacks
10. Texas Longhorns
11. Virginia Cavaliers
12. Houston Cougars
13. Iowa State Cyclones
14. Alabama Crimson Tide
15. Tennessee Volunteers
16. Purdue Boilermakers
17. St. John's Red Storm
18. Louisville Cardinals
19. North Carolina Tar Heels
20. BYU Cougars
21. Miami Hurricanes
22. Nebraska Cornhuskers
23. Vanderbilt Commodores
24. Ohio State Buckeyes
25. USC Trojans
Michigan's repeat chances hinge on key NBA Draft decisions
Dusty May is off to a good start with retention, keeping Final Four Most Outstanding Player Elliot Cadeau and key reserve Trey McKenney in the fold. Big man J.P. Estrella is set to arrive from the portal to fill Yaxel Lendeborg's shoes while five-star freshman Brandon McCoy is set to start on the wing. As of post time, both Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. are weighing NBA Draft decisions, with May targeting Cincinnati big Moustapha Thiam in the portal as a potential replacement for one of them. If Michigan gets Thiam and keeps Johnson, who seems more likely to stay than Mara, the Wolverines will be heavy favorites to repeat as champs.
UConn wins with one guard as they lose another
The big boost in UConn's title odds comes from Braylon Mullins' surprise decision to stay in school for his sophomore year, which could help him become a lottery pick next June. Keeping Mullins was massive since the Huskies lost Solo Ball for the entirety of next season as he will take a redshirt after undergoing wrist surgery. Dan Hurley has done good work in the transfer portal, landing wings Nik Khamenia from Duke and Najai Hines from Seton Hall. Adding those two to Mullins, Silas Demary and Jaylin Stewart should make UConn Big East favorites once again.
The Balkan block will be back for more At Illinois
Keaton Wagler is off to the NBA as expected but Illinois should remain a force as its Balkan block all opted to return to Champaign for another season. Brad Underwood added another Eastern European player to his roster in Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks, who is projected to take over for Wagler at the point. With six key rotation players coming back alongside a strong freshman class with two four star recruits, the Fighting Illini are well-positioned to challenge Michigan for Big Ten supremacy.
Retention will be a key for Duke
Even though Cameron Boozer is off to the NBA, Jon Scheyer has a surprisingly deep group of stars returning to Durham this fall. Patrick Ngbonba II, Caleb Foster and Dame Sarr are all expected to return alongside Cayden Boozer, giving the Blue Devils a strong four-man group to build around. Belmont transfer Drew Scharnowski will add depth up front for Duke, which has another trio of five-star freshmen arriving on campus to help Duke maintain its ACC superiority.
Florida is awaiting key NBA Draft decisions
Alex Condon and Boogie Fland highlight the returning players for Florida, which made an early portal splash by landing Kentucky's Denzel Aberdeen to join Fland in the back court. The big swing here could come from Rueben Chinyelu, who has declared for the draft while maintaning his college eligibility. The fifth spot is a hedge on Chinyelu's decision as the Gators could move up or down a few slots depending on how this plays out.
Tom Izzo continues to eschew the portal for Michigan State
One team that hasn't relied much on the transfer portal is Michigan State, which has seen Tom Izzo lean heavily on the traditional recruit-and-develop model of team building. Izzo is set to bring back six of his top eight scorers from last year's Sweet 16 team, headlined by point guard Jeremy Fears Jr, and that group will be joined by a quartet of four-star freshmen. While not quite as talented as Illinois or Michigan, the sheer depth of the Spartans' roster makes them a force to be reckoned with in the Big Ten.
Gonzaga looks ready for its jump to the Pac-12
The 2026-27 season marks Gonzaga's first year as a member of the Pac-12 and they are well-positioned to claim the league's regular season crown. Mark Few is adding Houston transfer Isiah Harwell to his trio of returning starters (Braden Huff, Mario Saint-Supery and Davis Fogle) and collection of four-star freshmen coming to Spokane. Nobody should be surprised to see the Bulldogs in the Top 10 for most of next season.
St. John's goes international to fill its roster
There is a lot of new blood headed to St. John's as Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins are out of eligibility while March Madness hero Dylan Darling transferred to Grand Canyon. Rick Pitino does have Ian Jackson and Ruben Prey back while going international to fill some key roster holes. The name to watch here is British point guard Quinn Ellis, who has been a star player in the EuroLeague, and fills a glaring hole that plagued the Red Storm all season.
Louisville's transfer haul is quite impressive
Few teams did better in the transfer portal than Louisville, which got the biggest prize in Bidunga to go with former Arkansas wing Karter Knox. The best fit of Pat Kelsey's transfer additions, however, is former Oregon point guard Jackson Shelstead. Kelsey's high-octane system fits Shelstead like a glove and it won't be a shock to see him in contention for All-ACC first team honors this season.
North Carolina is in an interesting spot with Michael Malone
The addition of former NBA coach Michael Malone brings intrigue to the Tar Heels, especially with star big Henri Veesaar still in the fold right now. Malone may be able to turn Veesaar into a star as the focal point of North Carolina's offense, which retained four of their Top 11 scorers. Virginia Tech transfer Neoklis Avdalas will also be a nice roster fit for the Tar Heels as a combo guard to replace the Caleb Wilson, who is off to the NBA Draft.
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