Morez Johnson NBA Draft Projection: Michigan star boosting his stock in March Madness

The Michigan Wolverines are a clear candidate to win the national championship. They've lost just three games all season (one being in the Big Ten championship), post an absurd plus-37.83 net rating per KenPom and won their first two NCAA tournament games by 20-plus points. The No. 1 Michigan will continue its quest for a national championship against the No. 4 Alabama on Friday night. 

Michigan's success is centered around its elite frontcourt of Morez Johnson, Yaxel Lendeborg, and Aday Mara. 

Johnson has been one of the biggest risers of this year's draft cycle. The Illinois transfer entered the season as a relatively unknown player after a quiet freshman season. Nevertheless, Johnson's importance to an elite Michigan squad has led to a meteoric rise, and he may continue to shoot up draft boards with a strong close to March Madness. 

Morez Johnson is emerging as an NBA Draft prospect

As we've established, this Michigan team is loaded, especially in the frontcourt. Undoubtedly, this makes Johnson's production all the more impressive. He is posting averages of 13.4 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.8 stocks (steals and blocks), and 1.1 assists. 

Leading the team in rebounds is a testament to Johnson's motor, and considering that Mara is 7-foot-3, this is a highly impressive feat. Additionally, the 6-foot-9, 225-pound forward has the ideal frame to guard multiple positions at the NBA level. 

My favorite part of Johnson's game is easily his defensive versatility. He is strong enough to provide rim protection and defend opposing big men, while being mobile enough to switch on to the perimeter. Likewise, on offense, Johnson's athleticism and physical gifts allow him to be a stellar rim finisher and he's flashed some upside as an outside shooter.

Given this two-way impact, it's hard not to buy into Johnson's game translating to the NBA level. 

How March Madness can elevate Johnson’s draft stock

In general, March Madness is far from the end-all, be-all for draft prospects. Scouts tend to (rightfully) value the 30-plus game sample size beforehand. Nevertheless, a strong showing on the biggest stage can often boost players' stocks. 

Last year might be the best example of this, as Walter Clayton Jr. shot up from a late second-round pick to a clear first-round pick. Donte DiVincenzo had a similar rise back in 2018. 

These players have vastly different playstyles than Morez, and he is starting off with a much higher foundation. However, my point is that massive risers can happen as a result of elite play in the tournament.  

Thus far, Johnson is averaging 18 points and 9.0 rebounds in the tournament. His 15 points, eight rebounds, and two assists against the No. 9 St. Louis might not jump off the page. Regardless, it was a nice example of Morez's ability to impact all facets of the game. 

For Johnson to further build his stock, though, showing more flashes of his ability to create for himself and others will be key. 

Strengths that intrigue NBA scouts

I've already discussed some of Johnson's strengths and weaknesses. But below is a more detailed list. 

• Johnson is capable of guarding multiple positions while being able to wreak havoc as a defensive playmaker. 
• Rare blend of length, size, athleticism, mobility and strength positions him nicely for NBA success.
• He arguably has the highest motor in this year's draft class, which helps him crash the glass and defend at an elite rate.
• Efficient play finisher who excels at scoring around the rim (he shoots 73.2 percent at the rim).
• Uses his athletic tools to thrive in transition. 
• Can be used in a variety of ways on offense, including as a screener, cutter and lob threat. 
• His two-way versatility allows him to fit with just about any NBA team. 
• Ranks in the 99th percentile for both DRAPM and overall RAPM per CBB analytics, which indicates his immense overall impact. 

Areas Johnson must improve for the NBA

Despite Johnson being a fairly polished prospect (and being one of my personal favorite players in the class), there are still some notable areas for him to improve upon. 

• Johnson's primary offensive role is a play finisher, and he hasn't shown a ton of flashes as a shot creator.
• He has shown solid connective playmaking chops, but is far from taking on any significant playmaking duties at the next level. His negative assist-to-turnover ratio is a clear area of improvement. 
• Despite shooting 37.5 percent from beyond the arc, Johnson is averaging fewer than one 3-pointer per game. 
• In general, Johnson projects to be an amazing complementary player rather than a future star. 

All in all, none of these weaknesses should be enough for NBA teams to truly sour on him. Nonetheless, if Johnson can showcase more flashes of shot creation during the stretch run of the tournament, it could boost his draft stock. 

Where Johnson could land in the NBA Draft

Currently, Johnson looks like a clear-cut first-round pick. As you can see in the table below, his range varies from 11 to 27. 

A strong finish to the tournament could propel Johnson closer to the lottery. Whether it's more established rebuilding teams looking for a complementary star or contending teams trying to shore up their depth, Johnson is an easy pitch for most teams. 

With that being said, if Morez sneaks into the lottery range, I love his fit on the Charlotte Hornets or the Milwaukee Bucks. Conversely, if Johnson is a later first-round pick, the Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers, and New York Knicks would all be ideal fits. 

What’s next for Johnson after the NCAA Tournament

Johnson will have until April 26 to declare as an early entry for the draft. The NBA Draft Combine takes place from May 10 to 17, which will give Johnson a chance to interview with some teams. Plus, I'm sure his official measurements will benefit his stock.

Between late April and May, Johnson will surely work out with NBA teams and gain feedback on his possible draft range.  If Johnson wants to go back to school, he'll have until May 28 to withdraw from the draft cycle. 

I fully expect Johnson to remain in the draft, as teams will always value versatile forwards like him. Still, in the event that Johnson returns to Michigan, he would likely have a runway to show off more of his abilities as a self-creator with Lendeborg (and likely) Mara leaving for the NBA.

Within all likelihood, though, he'll hear his name called somewhere in the first-round of June's draft. 

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