Michigan State entered Sunday with the a chance to not only exact some rivalry revenge on Michigan, but also to potentially stake a climb for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. And they were just 10 or so minutes away from doing just that, only to watch a narrow lead in the second half slip away in a 90-80 loss.
The good news is that the Spartans have hung with an inner-circle title contender twice now, even though they ultimately lost both games to the Wolverines this season. This is a classic Izzo team, one that makes up for shooting deficiencies with hellacious rebounding, defense and physicality, and there's no reason why they can't make a run to the Final Four.
But the bad news is that run might be a bit more difficult now than it otherwise could have been. Because Sunday's loss could carry major ramifications on Selection Sunday, especially if MSU can't rally in the Big Ten Tournament.
Michigan State could drop a line in latest Bracketology projection
Entering Sunday, the Spartans seemed to have a relatively firm grip on a No. 2 seed, with an outside chance to jump up to the 1-line given UConn's struggles of late. Now, though, the No. 1 seed dream seems all but dead; the only shot Michigan State has is winning their conference tournament, and even that might not be enough considering how solid Michigan, Duke and Arizona have been all year and how red-hot Florida is at the moment.
And if Sparty exits the Big Ten tourney early — say, with a semifinal loss to Nebraska — they might wind up a No. 3 seed on Selection Sunday. Someone like Alabama could always crash the party, but with Purdue's tailspin over the last couple of weeks, there are now realistically six teams vying for four No. 2 seeds in the Big Dance. And a look at the resumes suggests that Michigan State might still have some work to do.
Michigan State | Houston | UConn | Illinois | Iowa State | Nebraska | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NET Ranking | 11 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 12 |
Strength of schedule (per KenPom) | 18 | 31 | 35 | 19 | 41 | 52 |
Overall record | 25-6 (15-5) | 26-5 (14-4) | 27-4 (17-3) | 24-7 (15-5) | 25-6 (12-6) | 26-5 (15-5) |
Q1+Q2 record | 14-5 | 18-5 | 16-3 | 14-7 | 16-6 | 13-5 |
A combination of a rugged Big Ten slate plus non-conference games against the likes of Duke, UNC, Arkansas and Kentucky gives the Spartans a strength of schedule advantage. But they're currently fifth out of the six in NET rankings, tied for the second-fewest combined Quad 1 and 2 victories. And while Izzo and Co. hold a head-to-head win over Illinois, they also lost to Nebraska earlier this season.
Right now, it feels like Houston, UConn and Illinois have a slight edge on the rest, with the Huskies potentially even moving back up to the No. 1 line if they win the Big East Tournament and get some help in the form of an early Florida loss. From there, a lot will depend on Champ Week; if Nebraska beats the Spartans again, or if Iowa State goes on a run in the Big 12 tourney, MSU might drop a line when all is said and done.
Of course, if you want to be optimistic, it's also worth pointing out that Sparty's seeding could also change for the better.
Big Ten Tournament bracket: What Michigan State needs to nab a No. 1 seed
Barring complete chaos, Michigan State is going to get a shot at UCLA (solidly on the right side of the bubble) in the Big Ten quarters, then either Nebraska or Purdue in the semis followed by either Michigan or Illinois in the final. That's quite the opportunity to both boost the resume and knock down your competition for seeding.
Let's say that March Izzo returns and the Spartans are cutting down the nets when all is said and done. That likely means they've either avenged their loss to Nebraska, swept Purdue or Illinois and notched a very impressive win against an elite Michigan squad. They'd almost certainly jump toward the front of the No. 2 line, with only Houston and UConn potentially standing in their way. And if things break right elsewhere, a No. 1 seed still isn't out of the question: Florida goes down in the semis, Houston loses to BYU or Kansas and Iowa State loses to Arizona, and suddenly you're in business.
In that scenario, only the big three of Michigan, Duke and Arizona could credibly claim to have a better resume. It's still all in front of MSU heading into the postseason, which is right where Izzo wants to be.