Michigan vs. UConn: The stats that will determine a national champion

Michigan has seemingly been coasting through the NCAA Tournament this year. If history repeats itself, the Wolverines should win the program’s first national championship since 1989. This Michigan team might be more dominant than last year’s Florida Gators, which is why this will be UConn’s toughest test. Michigan has the No. 1 defensive rating in the country per KenPom, and are winning their tourney games by more than 20 points on average. Good luck.

And yet, the Huskies have won two of the last three natoinal titles, and they've defied all the doubters to this point. On paper, Michigan should win; still, UConn could very well pull off another upset as one of the strongest programs over the last five years. These stats will determine which team finished as this year’s national champion.

Who will have the advantage with the 3-point shot?

Braylon Mullins has already stolen the spotlight with his miracle shot that ended Duke’s season in the Elite Eight. That's his primary role on a Huskies team that as a whole has relied on the 3-point shot to win. With shooters all over the rotation, it makes sense: UConn can play an inside-out game with Alex Karaban, Solo Ball and Mullins and then use Tarris Reed Jr. as a beast in the paint. 

Michigan themselves have relied heavily on the 3-point shot as well. The Wolverines have made at least 10 3-pointers in every March Madness game this season while having as many as 13. This feels like a game where it could either be a shootout or the team that’s cold early won’t be able to come back. 

Will UConn or Michigan’s defense be the difference in the game?

It’s easy to think that Michigan will lock down UConn from start to finish. It’s what the Wolverines have done in this tournament, regardless of who they’re playing. Their length at just about every position has given teams fits all March Madness long. That said, Duke the Huskies are no slouches themselves on the defensive end.

UConn could just as easily have that same success against Michigan, grinding things down to a half-court affair. The Wolverines are No. 5 in offensive rating, per KenPom. The Huskies haven’t quite seen a team like Michigan, which could be tricky for them. The Wolverines want to get out and run as much as possible, and play something close to a pro-style game. The difference in this game isn’t about who shoots better, it’s about who protects the inside the best. 

Good 3-point shooting teams find ways to get their shots. Both of these teams are going to do the same. The matchup between Reed Jr. and Aday Mara and Alex Karaban and Morez Johnson Jr. will be the difference in this one. Whichever frontcourt plays better should be the difference. 

Michigan’s ability to rebound could be a problem for UConn

Michigan is averaging 40 rebounds per game this season and haven’t had a game with less than 35 rebounds in the NCAA Tournament this year. Johnson and Mara have been anchors for the Wolverines and played a large part in both their defense and their ability to end possessions with rebounds. Michigan’s a really good offensive rebounding team as well. 

UConn, on the other hand, isn’t a bad rebounding team, but struggles against bigger teams with rebounding. The Huskies have been outrebounded in each of the last three NCAA Tournament games, and in two of those they had 30 and 28 rebounds. If Michigan controls the rebounding in the national championship game, it just be the reason they win. 

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