Then vs. Now: How this Michigan team compares to its 2018 Final Four trip

No team makes it to the Final Four alone. Each run through the NCAA Tournament carries with it the weight of all the ones that came before, and the hopes and dreams of the fan base that lived through them — for better or for worse. It's not just a chance to cut down the nets; it's an opportunity for exorcism.

Few schools understand that more than Michigan. The Wolverines have made the men's Final Four nine times, but have just one national title nearly 40 years ago to show for it. The last time Michigan made it this far was almost a decade ago, back in 2018, when John Beilein's squad reached the national title game before getting blasted by Villanova.

Hopes are high that this year can finally be the year, and understandably so considering just how dominant Michigan has been for much of the 2025-26 season. But how can they finally succeed where their predecessors failed? To answer that question, we're looking back at the Wolverines' most recent trip to the Final Four to see what it might tell us.

The benchmark: What the 2018 Final Four team was

In short, one of John Beilein's very best coaching jobs in a career full of them. Not much was expected of the Wolverines in 2018, who lost starters Zack Irvin, Derrick Walton and DJ Moore from a team that went 20-11 in the regular season the year prior. But behind a relentlessly sound defense and a little March magic, Michigan won the Big Ten Tournament and then made it all the way to the national title game before losing to a powerhouse Villanova squad.

Of course, the thing you probably remember most about that team is Jordan Poole's miraculous 3 at the buzzer to beat Houston in the second round.

That 2018 team wasn't overwhelmingly talented; Poole and Mo Wagner were the only two players who got more than a cup of coffee in the NBA. But they embodied the best of the Beilein era, a team that hardly ever beat itself, ran some of the most beautiful offensive sets you'll ever see and found a way to become more than the sum of its parts. It didn't quite get them to the top of the mountain, but it provided memories that Michigan fans will never forget.

What this Michigan team looks like now

You know that scene in The Avengers where the Hulk tosses Loki around by his ankle like a doll? Yeah, this Michigan team looks something like that. The Wolverines lost all of two games in the regular season: a 91-88 home upset to Wisconsin in which the Badgers shot a blistering 15-33 from 3, and a 68-63 slugfest against Duke in February. Other than that, and a loss in the Big Ten Tournament final to Purdue, it's been more or less utter dominance from Dusty May's crew — including in the Big Dance, in which Michigan has won its first four games by an average of 20 points.

They have two legitimate lottery picks in do-it-all 6-foot-9 forward Yaxel Lendeborg and the 7-foot-3 Aday Mara. They have immense size in the frontcourt in Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. They're fifth in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and No. 1 with a bullet in defensive efficiency. Where the 2018 team struggled to find itself by the end of the year, this Michigan squad emerged fully formed from the jump, ready to take on all comers with a combination of skill, length, athleticism and sophistication you don't find much at the college level. Several months later, everyone's still trying to slow them down.

The biggest difference that actually matters

Beilein's team, all methodical half-court sets and meticulous timing, was among the slowest in the country on both ends of the floor, with an average possession length that ranked around No. 300 overall. This year's Michigan team, by contrast, plays at the 14th fastest pace offensively — with each possession taking just 15.6 seconds on average, a full three seconds longer than their 2018 counterparts.

Dusty May's crew is more than happy to play a half-court game on defense, confident that their incredible length on the interior will result in a bad shot more often than not. But once they get the ball, it's all gas and no brakes. And if a Lendeborg fast break can't get to the rim, a unit in which just about everyone on the floor can both pass and shoot means that the ball's going up sooner rather than later.

Where the 2026 team is better — and where it falls short

How about sheer talent? Lendeborg and Mara are head and shoulders better than anyone on the 2018 team, and I'd let you throw Johnson in there too without a ton of pushback. It's hard to overstate what that does for a team's ceiling: Where 2018 Michigan was largely reliant on wing Charles Matthews and combo guard Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman — two good college players, but hardly stars — to get them a bucket when things broke down, these Wolverines can rely on a true three-level scorer in Lendeborg, or a post-up from Johnson. They've got answers to darn near everything you can throw at them, and a higher ceiling because of it.

In terms of where the 2026 team might be a bit worse ... well, I'll be honest, there aren't a ton of options. This is not just a national title contender but one of the most impressive squads the college game has seen in recent years; it's a testament to just how good the rest of this Final Four is that the Wolverines aren't viewed as prohibitive favorites to cut down the nets. But there is one area worth shining a light on: turnovers.

The 2018 team was incredibly careful with the ball, posting the fourth-lowest turnover rate in the country that season. This year's version, on the other hand, had a turnover rate that was almost exactly the national average — one of the few areas in which they weren't elite. There's a bit of a peak Golden State Warriors phenomenon happening here: May's offense involves so much movement and passing, and everyone on the floor is so confident, that sometimes sloppiness can set in. It's also worth noting that, where in 2018 Michigan had two savvy ball-handlers in Abdur-Rahkman and Zavier Simpson, Elliot Cadeau doesn't inspire quite as much confidence (even if he has improved by leaps and bounds since coming over from UNC).

What history tells us about this team’s title chances

Michigan has had a quietly tortured history at the men's Final Four. The Wolverines have made nine appearances — ninth-most all-time, behind only the bluest of blue bloods — but have just one national title to show for it, which came back in 1989. They've lost a whopping six times in the championship game alone.

If any team can erase that heartbreak, though, it's this one. For starters, they check just about every statistical box and clear every threshold we have for determining whether a team is good enough to win it all. Every single champion of the KenPom era has been at least top-15 in offensive efficiency and top-40 in defensive efficiency; Michigan this year ranks fifth and first, respectively.

And while the 2018 team ultimately fell short because of a lack of top-end talent, running into a Villanova buzzsaw they could do little to slow down, these Wolverines are loaded for bear. They play beautiful basketball, but they also have plus athletes all over the place, overwhelming teams with length and explosiveness. None of which guarantees anything this time of year — especially not against a fellow No. 1 seed in Arizona that can match them blow for blow — but you can't blame Michigan fans for coming to Indy with confidence.