NCAA women's basketball championship: The stats that will decide UCLA vs South Carolina

Friday's Final Four games were...rough. UConn and Texas both went cold from the field, but UCLA and South Carolina were only barely able to take advantage of it. All four teams struggled to shoot the basketball to the point where I started to wonder if the baskets had been replaced with the baskets you shoot into at a carnival. That probably wasn't the case, but it was still a weird day of basketball.

Now, UCLA and South Carolina move forward to compete for a national title. For the Bruins, a win would mark the first time that the program cut down the nets. For South Carolina, a win would be another major notch for Dawn Staley's mantle.

Which team can control the pace?

One major key to this one is going to be which team can impose its will offensively, and specifically, that will be determined by which can play the way it wants to play. For South Carolina, that means pushing the pace a bit — the Gamecocks aren't the fastest team in the country, but they rank 77th in the nation in possessions per game and were second behind LSU in fast-break points per game.

UCLA, though, wants to slow things down and play through center Lauren Betts. The Bruins rank 251st in pace and are just 50th in the nation in fast-break points per game. UCLA has plenty of guards who can score the ball, but the goal of this offense is to play with purpose.

We should learn pretty quickly which team will have the edge here. If Raven Johnson can force some early turnovers against the UCLA guards, then the Gamecocks can get out and run, which would give South Carolina the edge. But if UCLA can take care of the basketball, the Bruins should be better-positioned to impose their will.

Both teams can shoot 3-pointers, but...

Neither of these teams shoots as many 3-pointers as their efficiency from deep would suggest they should be shooting.

The Gamecocks can shoot, but Staley's offensive system largely eschews the shot in favor of getting the ball inside. The problem in this matchup is that "getting the ball inside" means trying to score over Betts, one of the best centers in basketball and a potential WNBA lottery pick later this month. That won't be easy, though South Carolina's frontcourt duo of Joyce Edwards and Madina Okot might be one of the few pairings capable of negating UCLA's advantage.

Still, the Gamecocks may need to rely on shooting a little more than usual, and the question becomes if the team can scale up from deep effectively. If so, that's going to mean a lot of shots from Tessa Johnson, a 45.2 percent shooter from deep on 5.4 attempts per game.

UCLA doesn't shoot as much as you might expect, but the team is far better equipped to compete if the bigs shut each other down and this becomes a jump-shooting game. Gianna Kneepkens is one of the nation's best spot-up shooters, while Gabriela Jaquez has proven to be a reliable shooter as well.

If this game becomes about 3-pointers, advantage UCLA.

Which team has the better defensive stopper?

Could this game come down to which defensive specialist is better at stopping the other team? Oh yeah, especially considering how Friday's Final Four games went.

On the South Carolina side, that means letting Raven Johnson cook defensively. Against UConn, Staley stuck Johnson on UConn star Azzi Fudd for long stretches, and it just completely pulled Fudd out of her comfort zone. She was consistently unable to get her shot off, and it drained so much of the energy from that Huskies team.

Meanwhile, UCLA...well, who they're forced to rely on will depend on what kind of lineup the Gamecocks run out. If South Carolina stays small like they did against UConn, Jaquez will be hugely important. She spent much of Friday's game as the primary defender on Madison Booker, who had an awful shooting night. Like, historically bad:

But if the Gamecocks go big, we'll likely see Angela Dugalić out there trying to guard Joyce Edwards, which could be a distinct advantage for South Carolina. Dugalić will need to play one of her best games ever if that's the matchup UCLA ends up with.

UCLA's edge in passing

One place where the Bruins have a distinct advantage? Ball movement. UCLA ranks 11th in the nation in assisted shot rate, with 67.8 percent of the team's makes coming off assists. South Carolina is 156th in the nation, with an assisted shot rate of 55.5 percent.

Now, South Carolina is still top 10 in the nation in actual assists per game, so it's not like this Gamecocks team is selfish. It's just that UCLA is notably unselfish, largely as a result of the team's point guard, Kiki Rice. Rice, who might be considered an X-factor in this game, brings years of experience as the Bruins' point guard, and this season she's really blossomed into a great player and a potential lottery pick.

UCLA is going to hunt for the right shot, and Rice's ability to guide this offense will go a long way toward determining this basketball game. She's never had as much pressure on her as she will on Sunday afternoon, and this game will prove a lot about her ability as a ball-handler. If she can control the ball and get it to the right spots — either Betts for an inside post touch or Kneepkens for a catch-and-shoot 3-pointer — then the Bruins will be in business.

Justin's official game prediction

It makes sense to end this with a prediction, right? And that prediction is that UCLA is about to win the first title in program history.

South Carolina is a very good team, but UCLA's shooting edge and depth are going to make the biggest difference here. This is a Bruins team that has been building toward this moment for a few years now, and the addition of a knock-down shooter in Kneepkens will be the thing that pushes them over the edge.

The Gamecocks will be back, though. Much of Staley's roster is set to return next season, so win or lose, I'd expect South Carolina to enter next season as the favorite to take home a national title. This year, though, it's UCLA that will cut down the nets.