Cnference tournament week has claimed yet another bubble. The Auburn Tigers miraculously were still alive in the NCAA Tournament hunt despite an overall record hovering around .500, but that dream appears to have died with a 10-point loss Thursday to the Tennessee Volunteers in the second round of the SEC Tournament. At 17-16, it seems hard to believe the Tigers will still sneak into the First Four, no matter how many Quad 1 games they've played (and largely lost). With Auburn out of the picture, the next question becomes which bubble teams replace them in the hunt for one of the final spots in the Big Dance?
Conference tournament victims are falling left and right, which is making the selection committee’s job easier as it looks to fill out the 68-team field. Here’s how things should shuffle around before Sunday’s selection show.
Seton Hall Pirates
I might be in the minority here, but Seton Hall is making a strong case to leapfrog into the bubble picture. Right now, Joe Lunardi has the Pirates among his next four out, suggesting they still have a lot of work to do. That said, they’re in the Big East Tournament semifinals against St. John’s after beating Creighton on Thursday, and I think that if they can keep it close or even pull off an upset there, that would strengthen their case. They aren’t great against Quad 1 opponents this year, only winning one against N.C. State (another bubble team).Â
For what it’s worth, though, the rest of the bubble isn’t great either. California, Auburn, Cincinnati and Missouri have all lost in their conference tournaments already, which should move some more teams into the picture. I think it’s fair to say that Seton Hall deserves a shot if they play St. John’s close, and definitely if they pull off the upset. The Pirates have a 55 NET ranking, which puts them right in the mix around other bubble teams.Â
San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State doesn’t have a particularly strong resume, but they’re already a bubble team and could get in without a conference title thanks to Auburn’s loss. The Aztecs have struggled against Quad 1 opponents with just a 2-6 record and wins over Nevada and Utah State. It just doesn’t make sense to keep them out, though, especially with Missouri, Oklahoma and Auburn all losing. There’s no way you can argue a team that went on a run to at worst the MWC semis deserves to get the short end of the stick to an SEC school.Â
There aren't too many other bubble teams that could jump into the conversation at this late date, which is why the teams already in the bubble should be bumped up rather than forced to continue to pass the subjective eye test come Sunday.Â
New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico should be another team to leapfrog the Tigers, not necessarily because they’re better or have a better resume so much as there’s nothing hindering them. There are five bubble teams around them that all lost. The Lobos reached the Mountain West conference tournament quarterfinals. That might not be good enough, but if they do reach the semifinals, it would absolutely give them the boost they need. The options on the bubble aren’t great, which is why the Lobos have a shot.Â
They can’t be punished for having a bad schedule when teams that needed to prove something in conference tournaments didn’t do that. New Mexico is doing everything it needs to, and winning one more game should solidify their NCAA Tournament bid. One thing’s certain, they can’t fall behind any of the teams that aren't still playing.