WBB Bracketology: Predicting the last four in and the last four out

This is anectdotal, so don't hold me to this, but I certainly don't remember a recent women's college basketball season where the NCAA Tournament bubble felt this hard to get a read on. Part of it is that the Big 12 has been especially deep while the ACC has been especially uneven, leading to a different make up of bubble teams than we usually get. Now, as conference tournament season approaches, it's time to figure out who is in and who is out of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

For the purposes of this, let's assume Princeton wins the Ivy League Tournament. If it doesn't, it would likely grab one of the "last four in" spots, but Ivy regular-season winner Columbia would likely be out if it didn't win the conference tournament.

Last four in

What four teams will end up as the last four in to the NCAA Tournament? Here are the four in line to sneak into those final spots.

Nebraska

Nebraska's stock really dropped over the final month of the season. As recently as the end of January, the Huskers were solidly in the field. And not just in, but avoiding the First Four and potentially landing in the upper half of the seeding.

Then came February — brutal, brutal February, which saw the Huskers lose six games in a row and drop into the bubble conversation. A win on Feb. 22 over Washington was probably the saving grace that gets the Huskers into the field, but they're definitely backing into the tournament.

Clemson

While the Tigers are definitely on the bubble, last week's win over Duke was the kind of resume-building victory that really matters this time of year.

Yes, Clemson's 3-9 record in Quad 1 games isn't great, but those three wins — Duke, NC State and Notre Dame — are impressive, and the team winning four of its final six regular-season games helps pad things out as well. The 35-point loss to Stanford to end the regular season, though? Yeah, that one might come back to bite them depending on how the ACC Tournament goes. Clemson can't afford an early exit against Virginia. I don't think that'll be an issue, but there's not much wiggle room here.

Colorado

The Buffaloes looked to have climbed off the bubble after a four-game win streak late in the season which featured key wins over TCU and Texas Tech. All they really needed to do was go 1-1 against Utah and BYU to close out the regular season and they'd likely be good.

But a rough final week has Colorado's case looking a little bit shakier. The strong work the Buffaloes did in beating two of the Big 12's best teams should be enough, but it's possible that a conference tournament upset to Kansas or UCF could be enough to knock them to the wrong side of the bubble, but a win there should make the next round against Baylor largely meaningless, as long as Colorado isn't blown out or we don't see too many bid steals that send higher ranked teams into the at-large pool.

Richmond

Two bid Atlantic 10? Two bid Atlantic 10!

Richmond and Rhode Island both deserve a spot in a 68-team field, and it's really a shame that that might not happen. Assuming Rhode Island, the higher-ranked of the two and the first-place team in the conference, wins the Atlantic 10 Tournament, Richmond should sneak in as long as it doesn't lose before the tournament final.

The Spiders should be rewarded for playing Texas and TCU in non-conference play and shouldn't be punished much for losing to Fairfield, one of the nation's top mid-major teams. An overtime loss to George Washington is really the one "YIKES" moment on the resume, but wins over Rhode Island, Columbia and Green Bay boost the team enough to negate that.

Last four out

Stanford

Stanford is a super, super interesting case here. The Cardinal have 12 losses, with a 13th coming (since no more losses would mean no more need to consider them in the at-large conversation) in a year where the ACC is at its weakest point in a while, so the Cardinal not making the NCAA Tournament wouldn't be an egregious error by the committee or anything.

But Stanford ended the regular season with a 35-point win over fellow bubble team Clemson, which definitely matters, and the team has earlier wins over North Carolina, Oregon and Washington. This is really a question of how much runway the team built up before a 2-9 stretch during conference play, and I think the answer is "not enough."

Utah

Utah beat West Virginia on Jan. 27, giving the team its second big win over a top Big 12 team following a Jan. 3 win over TCU. At that point, an NCAA Tournament berth felt close to a given.

Unfortunately for Utes fans, the team was 4-5 from that point on. That might not sound awful, but three of those four wins can basically be disregarded as they came against the Big 12's cellar dwellers: UCF, Cincinnati and Arizona. The team's non-conference schedule featured an 0-3 record against power conference opponents, including a 52-point loss to UConn. All that suggests this team winds up on the wrong end of the bubble.

South Dakota State

Two bid Summit? Only if South Dakota State wins the conference tournament. North Dakota State would be an at-large, but the Jackrabbits would fall just short if they have to rely on an at-large bid to get in.

One issue might just be that the team played too many good teams in non-conference. Losses to Texas, Duke and North Carolina weren't close, and overall five of the team's six losses are by double digits. A seven-game win streak to end the regular season with a win over the Bison in there has moved the team closer to the field, but this kind of feels like the upper end of where the Jackrabbits can land barring the other bubble teams all suffering immediate and embarassing conference tournament defeats.

Arizona State

It's been a great season for the Sun Devils, who went from the Big 12 cellar to right on the brink of an NCAA Tournament berth in Molly Miller's first season as the team's head coach. The team has more than doubled its win total from last season and sits at 22-9 on the year.

So, why is a nine-loss power conference team on the outside looking in? Because the non-conference schedule was ... not great. The Sun Devils were 13-0 in non-conference play, but only one of those games was against a power conference team, which was Penn State, a team that didn't even make the Big Ten Tournament. There's nothing from that early stretch of the year to fall back on, so the 1-3 finish to the regular season is likely enough to push the Sun Devils to the wrong side of the bubble.

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