Sunday may have been the biggest day of the entire women's college basketball season. Big wins — especially by a couple of ACC bubble teams — has given some clarity about who will and who won't be in the NCAA Tournament.
But the work isn't done. Even if this week helped move certain teams move to the right side of the bubble, there are still games left to be played, which means there are still chances to screw up all the positive momentum and fall back to the wrong side of the bubble. So, where do we stand as we head into the final week of the season?
On the right side of the bubble
Colorado (20-8, 11-5)
NET ranking: 43
The Buffaloes took down Texas Tech 75-68 on Saturday, extending the team's win streak to five games, with two victories over ranked teams in that span. The middle of the Big 12 is kind of a mess because good basketball teams keep beating each other, but Colorado has taken a clear step toward the top tier of the conference. Having zero non-conference wins over power conference teams is a mark against the Buffaloes, but these recent wins — especially the one over TCU —have made up for that. Win one of these next two against Utah and BYU plus your first-round conference tournament matchup and you'll be in the field without issue.
Virginia (19-8, 11-5)
NET ranking: 37
This is the time of year where one big win can change everything. For Virginia, that's what Sunday's win over Louisville did, as the Cavaliers took down one of the ACC's two elite teams. Add in recent wins over Notre Dame and Stanford, and things are looking up for Virginia. Like Colorado, the Cavaliers don't have marquee non-conference wins to fall back on, so the final two regular-season games against North Carolina and Virginia Tech still matter, especially the home meeting with a Hokies team that Virginia has already lost to. Two losses to Virginia Tech seems like it could threaten the team's tournament spot.
Clemson (19-9, 10-6)
NET ranking: 39
Duke was the hottest team in the ACC and entered Sunday's contest against Clemson with an undefeated conference record. The Tigers put an end to that, winning 53-51 despite shooting just 32.1 percent from the floor. The Tigers were 11-for-12 from the charity stripe, which wound up being the difference maker in the game, with a +5 turnover advantage helping as well. Clemson has now won six of its last eight games, and overall the quality of its wins have to come into play, with the team beating Duke, Notre Dame and NC State,
Arizona State (22-7, 9-7)
NET ranking: 52
Molly Miller deserves to be mentioned among the best coaches in women's college basketball already for how she's turned this program around, winning 22 games already after the Sun Devils won just 10 games last season. As far as the team's chances to make a run in March goes, the fact it lost in bad fashion to TCU and Iowa State keep me from believing in a surprise Sweet 16 run, but the team's resume is still strong enough to hold on to a spot for now. A win over Texas Tech to end the regular season would surely help, though.
On the wrong side of the bubble
Utah (17-11, 8-8)
NET ranking: 58
Zero power conference wins against out-of-conference teams — it's something that doesn't necessarily doom your team, but coupled with the fact that the Utes have lost four of their last five with only a win over Big 12 cellar dweller Cincinnati, it makes a tournament berth feel like a more and more remote possibility. Luckily for Utah, wins against TCU and West Virginia help its resume, but the next two regular-season games are must wins.
Nebraska (17-11, 6-11)
NET ranking: 29
Not long ago, I would have had Nebraska as a lock. The Huskers started 12-0, but have been a disaster in Big Ten play. Since the start of the conference schedule, Nebraska only ranks 12th in the Big Ten in net rating. No team in the Big Ten has allowed a higher field goal percentage to its conference opponents. Sunday's win over Washington helps the team's case, but I worry it's an example of too little, too late since it was preceeded by a six-game losing streak.
Richmond (23-6, 13-3)
NET ranking: 42
It's going to be tough for a second Atlantic 10 team to make the tournament. The best chance that happens is that someone other than Rhode Island wins the conference tournament. The second-best chance involves Richmond beating Rhode Island on Feb. 25, giving the Spiders a huge resume win. Unfortunately, the team's path to March Madness took a big hit after back-to-back losses to George Mason and George Washington, so a team that I legitimately think is one of the nation's best mid-majors, and that has arguably the top mid-major player in Maggie Doogan, is in real danger of missing the tournament.
Stanford (17-12, 6-10)
NET ranking: 47
Don't count the Cardinal out yet, but the team's chances of returning to the NCAA Tournament are certainly dwindling. Year 2 of the Kate Paye era has been an improvement over her first season, but Stanford stlll ranks outside the top 100 nationally in offensive and defensive rating. It also doesn't help that before Sunday's win over Florida State, Stanford had lost eight of nine. The next two games are must wins, and then you likely need to win two rounds in the ACC Tournament.
Cal (17-12, 8-8)
NET ranking: 53
Cal is kind of the opposite story as Stanford. The Golden Bears have won seven of their past 10 games, but a poor stretch before that has the team in a hole that it's struggled to dig itself out of. Cal is lower than Stanford is the NET, but both teams are in the same situation going forward — win out in the regular season and make at least a semblance of a run in the conference tournament. It also doesn't help that the team was 0-4 against power conference teams before conference play, and two of those losses — to Auburn and Missouri — were games that Cal really needed to win.
Kansas (17-11, 7-9)
NET ranking: 51
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It's been great to watch freshman Jaliya Davis emerge as perhaps the best future prospect in the Big 12, but Kansas as a whole has been too uneven this season to make the tournament without some help down the stretch. Saturday's game against Kansas State was a must win and the Jayhawks won it, so the hopes remain alive, but the next two games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are also must wins.
On life support
Seton Hall (18-9, 12-6)
NET ranking: 56
The Big East is really a power conference in name only, because there's really no viable path for the conference's third-best teams. Seton Hall is 0-5 in Quad 1 games, and the team is 0-6 against teams with a top 75 Her Hoop Stats rating. It's lost twice to UConn by an average of 38 points, and has two pretty unforgivable losses to St. John's. The Villanova game this week is more than just a must win — Seton Hall needs to pass the eye test in that one, and then probably can't lose again until the Big East final against UConn. Even then...IDK.
South Dakota State (22-6, 12-2)
NET ranking: 46
The Jackrabbits have been NCAA Tournament fixtures, appearing 13 times since 2009, including the past three in a row. But North Dakota State has run away with the conference this season, winning 23 in a row, which includes a win over South Dakota State. There's a rematch this week and the Jackrabbits are out at-large contention with a loss in that game, though an 0-3 mark in Quad 1 games might already have the tournament out of reach. A better question here is how the bubble changes with a South Dakota State conference tournament title, because I think NDSU has a resume that would lock in an at-large bid.
Florida (16-13, 4-10)
NET ranking: 49
Florida has one of the best players in the nation in Liv McGill, who is averaging 22.6 points, 6.1 assists and 2.6 steals per game. The problem is that the team around her hasn't done enough to get Florida the wins its needed to make it on to the right side of the bubble. Sunday's 76-71 loss to Alabama was probably the end of the Gators' chances for getting an at-large bid, though a 4-10 record against teams with a top 100 Her Hoop Stats rating shows that Florida probably wasn't getting in even if it had managed an upset win over the Tide.
Kansas State (15-24, 8-8)
NET ranking: 57
Kansas vs Kansas State felt like a de facto elimination game. The Wildcats lost, so they're out, right? Yeah, that's probably right. A 14-loss Big 12 team — which would have to be a 15-loss Big 12 team to be in the at-large conversation — isn't getting in. There have been some good wins this season, including road wins over Texas Tech and Arizona State, but the non-conference struggles were too much to overcome, as the team lost to three mid-majors in that portion of the schedule.