The SEC might be stronger at the top, but the depth of the Big Ten makes it arguably the better conference top-to-bottom this season. Right now, no conference is projected to land more teams in the NCAA Tournament. But how do the Big Ten teams stack up against each other?
Let's rank all the Big Ten teams that currently appear to have a shot at making the NCAA Tournament based on ESPN's latest bracketology update.
12. Nebraska
There's not really much of a bubble in the Big Ten, as Nebraska is the only team from the conference in the "last four in," and no Big Ten team is among ESPN's first eight out. The Big Ten Tournament format will leave out the bottom three teams, so likely the only teams that can "steal" a bid are Wisconsin, Purdue and Indiana, but none of those really have a shot at an at-large under any circumstances.
That puts a lot of pressure on Nebraska here as the only one of these 12 teams that could realistically fall out of the field at this point. The Huskers are 16-10 on the year and just 5-10 in Big Ten play with five losses in a row and upcoming games against Oregon, Washington and Rutgers. You basically have to win the Rutgers game and one of the others to ensure you're not on the wrong side of the bubble.
11. Oregon
The 18-9 Ducks feel like they're in a better spot than Nebraska, though a loss to the Huskers could cause concern. Oregon isn't a particularly great team, ranking just 56th in net rating at +17.5, but the offense has been fairly efficient this season and the team is largely beating who it needs to beat.
A double-overtime loss to Wisconsin is the one big blemish on the resume, but wins over USC, Maryland and Illinois boost the team's profile. I worry that the offense tends to have the occasional disappearing night, like when the Ducks only scored 43 in a loss to Washington, but largely this team has been competitive even in its defeats.
10. Illinois
Illinois ranks above Oregon because the Illini have been better at beating the teams they should beat. In five games against the Big Ten teams outside the tournament picture, Illinois is 5-0, and only the three-point win over Northwestern was remotely close.
The problem? A 3-7 record against the rest of the Big Ten. The largest loss was only by 16 to Michigan, but Illinois just hasn't shown it can find a way to beat the best of the best. The team is 10th in the Big Ten in defensive rating and last in 3-point rate, two facts that don't elicit much enthusiasm for a future tournament run.
9. Washington
Washington deserves credit for doing something no other team has done this season: beating Michigan by more than three points.
Outside of that game, though, consistency has been an issue. Every loss has been by five or more points, and it took overtime to beat Wisconsin. The defense ranks just 116th in the nation in defensive rating, and the team has struggled to draw fouls and get to the line.
8. USC
Definitely not the season USC fans hoped for, but it's hard to win when your best player misses the entire season. Freshman Jazzy Davidson has impressed, though, averaging 17.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.9 steals and 2.2 block per game.
The issue has been finding help for Davidson, especially when factoring in her efficiency concerns. The first-year player is shooting just 39.6 percent from the floor, so finding a few other players who can knock down open looks off her passes would be a huge help. Unfortunately, only Kara Dunn has really stepped up into that role.
7. Michigan State
There was a time when I'd have had the Spartans in the top five here, but the Spartans have lost four of six, and the only wins in that span were against Penn State and Northwestern. Taking Michigan to overtime before losing is impressive, but we saw the Wolverines adjust better for the rematch, beating the Spartan by 21 on Feb. 15.
Beating Ole Miss in non-conference was impressive and the Spartans have only lost to teams I have ahead of them here, but poor defense makes it tough to win in March, even if Michigan State has a top 10 team nationally in offensive rating.
6. Maryland
A lot of people took issue when the selection committee had at No. 13 when it announced the current top 16 seeds on Saturday. The team had a stretch where it lost four of five games, a stretch that included a 30-point loss to UCLA. But the Terrapins have also won four in a row since then, including a one-point win over Ohio State.
Maryland feels like the ultimate wild card right now. This team could beat anyone on a given night, which we've seen with some good wins over Kentucky, Minnesota, USC and Michigan State. The team is also always capable of going cold and struggling to close out an opponent.
5. Minnesota
The Golden Gophers don't get the respect they deserve. Winners of nine in a row, Minnesota just finally returned to the AP rankings this week. The team has wins over Oregon, Iowa, Nebraska and Ohio State over this span, and the 13-point win over the Buckeyes really solidified how good this team is.
Minnesota is actually third among Big Ten teams in the NCAA's NET, coming in at eighth overall, behind only the seven teams I'd call true contenders. Yes, that seems a bit high, but we can't ignore that the NCAA's metrics say this is a really good basketball team.
4. Iowa
The emergence of Ava Heiden has returned Iowa to contender status. Maybe the ceiling isn't as high as it was during the Caitlin Clark era, but the Hawkeyes' offense has improved a good bit from last season while the defense has been solid, though not necessarily good.
Iowa had an eight-game conference win streak earlier this season before losing three in a row to USC, UCLA and Minnesota. The loss to Minnesota really made me question how to place both teams, but the Hawkeyes still have a slightly better track record overall. It's close, though. Toughest decision in this article.
3. Ohio State
I'm struggling to get a read on the Buckeyes lately. I thought this was the clear No. 3 team in the Big Ten for basically the entirety of the season, thanks in large part to the breakout performance of sophomore Jaloni Cambridge. I'm still leaving the 22-5 Buckeyes in that spot, but back-to-back losses to Maryland and Minnesota have narrowed the gap.
Still, Ohio State beat Maryland earlier this season plus had non-conference wins over TCU and West Virginia. The Buckeyes also played UCLA close. A 32-point loss to UConn is really the one huge negative on the resume, but the vast majority of teams in Division I would lose by 30-plus points to the Huskies
2. Michigan
The Wolverines would be viable title contenders if not for one thing: an inability to close out games. They've lost by three points to UConn, UCLA and Vanderbilt.
Still, the core of Syla Swords, Olivia Olson and Mila Holloway is one of the best young trios in the nation, with all three in just their second college season. This is a team that has the ability to make some noise, both now and in the future. The team ranks eighth in the nation in net rating and while its points allowed per game mark looks bad, pace has to be factored in here.
Value | Rank | |
|---|---|---|
Opponent PPG | 62.2 | 135th |
Defensive Rating | 81.3 | 27th |
Maybe there's concern that the fast pace will wear the defense out too much in March, but at the moment, I fully believe the Wolverines can take anyone down to the wire.
1. UCLA
Was there ever any doubt about who would come in at No. 1? UCLA is the class of the Big Ten and is the only team in the conference with an undefeated Big Ten record. The only loss all year came against Texas in a neutral-site tournament.
The Bruins are fourth in the nation in net rating and first in offensive rating. The team has six players who I would call threats on offense, and also has four strong passers to help create open looks. UCLA is second in the nation in assists per game and in assist-to-turnover ratio.
If a Big Ten team walks away with a national title this year, chances are that team is UCLA.