For the first time all season, there is a serious question about which team will rank No. 1 overall when the AP poll is released on Monday. That's because two of the top five teams in the nation were handed their first loss this week, and both came at the hands of the same team.
Will the voters leave the defending champion UConn Huskies at No. 1, or is Texas set to surpass them after beating both South Carolina and UCLA? It's a good question. What the Horns did during Thanksgiving week was one of the most impressive things we've seen this season from any team.
Here's my projection of what Monday's AP Top 25 poll will look like after an eventful week that saw two top-five teams go down. And remember: this isn't what my ballot would look like, but a projection of what I expect the AP poll itself to look like. This week, that's an important distinction.
Projected AP Top 25 women's college basketball rankings
1. UConn
2. Texas
3. UCLA
4. South Carolina
5. LSU
6. Maryland
7. Michigan
8. TCU
9. Iowa State
10. Oklahoma
11. Iowa
12. North Carolina
13. Ole Miss
14. Vanderbilt
15. Baylor
16. USC
17. Tennessee
18. Notre Dame
19. Kentucky
20. Michigan State
21. Washington
22. Louisville
23. Oklahoma State
24. NC State
25. Ohio State
The argument for No. 1 Texas
I don't have an AP vote. If I did, Texas would be my No. 1 this week, even if my projection is that enough voters will each UConn at No. 1 for the Huskies to maintain the spot.
Why? It's simply because I value scoring back-to-back wins over other top-five teams very, very highly.
Against UCLA, Rori Harmon reminded the world that she can score the ball when she needs to, putting up 26 points in the 76-65 win. The Horns defense held Lauren Betts to just eight points and the team forced 18 Bruins turnovers.
Then, one day later, Texas snuck past South Carolina 66-64, holding Ta'Niya Latson to 33.3 percent shooting and winning despite making just a single 3-pointer. These games were proof that the Longhorns' defense can impose its will on any team, slowing the game down and allowing the team to play the kind of basketball that head coach Vic Schaefer wants to play.
UCLA or South Carolina at No. 3?
We'll get to why I don't think LSU can jump either UCLA or South Carolina in a second. The big question right now is which of these teams lands at No. 3 and which drops down to No. 4.
South Carolina had the closer loss to the Longhorns and the advantage of being ranked higher in the poll last week, but I think the voters will side with UCLA for one reason: recency bias.
The last time we saw South Carolina play? The Gamecocks lost. The last time we saw UCLA play? The Bruins beat a ranked Tennessee team by 22 points, one game after beating Duke by 30. The Bruins have had two opportunities to erase that loss from voters' minds, while South Carolina hasn't had that chance yet. That Tennessee game probably saves UCLA and keeps the team at No. 3, right where it was entering the week.
LSU's schedule keeps the Tigers at No. 5
UCLA and South Carolina are one-loss teams whose one loss is to the team that'll be ranked either No. 1 or No. 2 this week. That should be enough to keep both ahead of LSU, because voters are going to look at the LSU schedule and think "really???"
Three of the top five just beat up on each other in one tournament. UConn has four wins over teams with a top 50 Her Hoop Stats rating. LSU, meanwhile, is 8-0 but has yet to play a power conference opponent.
The "LSU doesn't play anyone in non-conference" argument is very, very real, and it makes the path to moving higher than No. 5 in the poll very, very difficult.
Is there even an ACC favorite?
Duke looked like the ACC's best team before the year started, but the Blue Devils have collapsed in epic fashion, going 3-5 to start the year, including losses this week to South Carolina and UCLA.
Meanwhile, Louisville has two losses. Notre Dame was embarrassed by Michigan. The only undefeated ACC team is Wake Forest, but the 9-0 Demon Deacons have played one team with a top 100 Her Hoop Stats rating, beating No. 98 Illinois State on Friday. It took overtime to beat UCF, a team that might be 6-2 on paper but will likely be one of the worst teams in the Big 12 once conference play begins. Wake might get votes this week, but I wouldn't expect a poll debut yet.
Overall, my projection has the highest-ranked ACC team being North Carolina at No. 12. The 8-1 Tar Heels lost by 18 to UCLA, but have solid wins over Fairfield, South Dakota State, Kansas State and Columbia on the resume. Up next, though, is Texas, a game that will tell us a lot about this UNC team. I'm not looking for a win, but if the team can be competitive, then maybe I'll be ready to declare them as the ACC favorite.