Nothing gets the juices flowing like March Madness. This is college basketball's time to shine, and with the field of 68 being revealed on Sunday, myself and millions of others have spent the last few days poring over every bit of minutiae possible in order to finally fill out that perfect bracket.
This year's field seems heavy at the top, but there are some phenomenal matchups in the first-round between, regardless of seeding, some evenly matched teams. Wisconsin versus High Point might be a race to 100 points. Georgia versus Saint Louis will finally give Robbie Avila, aka Cream Abdul-Jabbar, his NCAA Tournament debut after his Indiana St. Sycamores were snubbed in 2024.
Those are just two of many candidates for the best first-round game of this year's tournament. For a variety of reasons, though, North Carolina vs. VCU is one of the most compelling Round of 64 matchups in recent years, and the one can't-miss game of the opening two days.
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Breaking down the matchups in UNC-VCU
Every NCAA Tournament game is played at maximum stakes, because either you win or your season ends. Survive and advance isn't just a catchy saying, it's words to live (or die) by, and the while that pressure causes some teams to wilt, it brings out the best in others. When that happens for both teams in a given game, that's when you get a classic.
In this 6-11 matchup, VCU is the underdog, but they're on a roll. They just blew through the A-10 Tournament with three straight wins, and they enter Thursday's game having won six in a row overall and 16 of their last 17. Carolina can't be nearly as confident, as they got blown out in the second half at Duke to end the regular season, then mounted a furious comeback that nonetheless fell short against Clemson in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals.
The Tar Heels rose to as high as 11th in the AP poll at one point this season behind their dynamic freshman Caleb Wilson, but they've gotten some bad luck at the worst possible time. Wilson broke a bone in his left hand during Carolina's loss to Miami in February, and though it looked like he was set to return against Duke, he broke his right thumb in practice that week and has been ruled out for the season.
Wilson quickly became a fan favorite due not only to his high-flying dunks and relentless effort, but for how much he embraced Chapel Hill and the Tar Heel tradition. As a consensus top-five pick in this summer's NBA Draft, though, it seems a certainty that he'll end his Carolina career without having played in the NCAA Tournament.
With Terrence Hill Jr. handling the ball, the Rams will have their best player, and that could be a problem for UNC, especially because the Heels have had a disturbing tendency to let opposing teams' leading scorers surpass their career highs against them this year. Hill scored 24 in a win over Loyola-Chicago in late January, and though he's not a super-high usage guy, VCU head coach Phil Martelli Jr. will probably gameplan getting him as many shots as possible.
Hill is a solid 3-point shooter, and he's a tremendous option at the end of the shot clock because he can create his own shot. He's made over 62 percent of his long 2s, one of the best marks in the nation, and that ability will stretch a Carolina defense that, with 7-footer Henri Veesaar manning the paint, is more geared towards stopping shots around the rim.
Veesaar will have to have a huge game for the Heels, but even that isn't a guarantee that they'll be able to come out with a win. He put the team on his back against Clemson on Thursday with 28 points and 17 rebounds, and still the Heels fell short.
Veesaar's interior defense is why UNC is one of the best teams in the country at defending shots inside the arc. Carolina has been vulnerable to the 3, though, and that's a problem against this VCU team. Seven players get major playing time for the Rams, and six of them shoot 35 percent or better from beyond the arc. SMU, Stanford and Cal all shot over 50 percent from outside against the Heels, and unsurprisingly, Carolina lost all three.
How this game is officiated will go a long way in determining the winner. VCU doesn't have a ton of size, but they play a fast and physical style, and it's one that gets them to the free throw line with regularity. Carolina rarely fouls, so for VCU to pull the upset, they'll have to impose their will and force some whistles. If Lazar Djokovic, their 6-foot-10 center, can get Veesaar in foul trouble, it would be a game-changer. If Veesaar turns the tables, the Heels could clean up on the boards.
Offensively, Carolina has gotten by without Wilson, but they really miss his production. Zayden High provided a spark when Wilson was injured the first time, but he's not sound defensively, and so his minutes and production have plummeted. He's only scored 11 points in the last three games combined, while never playing more than 14 minutes.
Seth Trimble was the driving force behind Carolina's wins over Louisville and Virginia Tech, and he's the only Tar Heel capable of driving to the basket with any consistency. For this offense to really sing, though, the Heels need Derek Dixon to show up. The freshman has supplanted Colorado State transfer Kyan Evans as the starting point guard, and lately, he's been heating up from outside. He's hit nine 3s in his last two games, which not coincidentally have been his two highest-scoring games of the season.
When it comes to common opponents, these teams are on equal ground. They each lost to NC State (although VCU kept it within six while Carolina got hammered by 24), and they each beat Virginia Tech and St. Bonaventure. Carolina's resume is stronger thanks to win over Kansas, Kentucky, Virginia, Louisville and Duke, while VCU's only win over a tournament team came before Thanksgiving when they beat South Florida on a neutral floor.
Other things to think about
Strip everything else away, and this is a really compelling matchup between two evenly matched teams. Why would you do that though when there are so many interesting storylines?
For one, Carolina head coach Hubert Davis may be coaching for his job. His five years coaching his alma mater have been marked by an inconsistency unbefitting of such a blue blood program, especially since piloting a Cinderella run as an 8-seed all the way to the national title game in his first year in 2022. Since then, the Heels were ranked No. 1 in the preseason and then missed the tournament altogether, becoming the first team to achieve that ignominious distinction. They followed that by earning a 1-seed but getting upset in the Sweet 16 by Alabama. Last year, the Heels controversially snuck into the tournament as a double-digit seed for the first time in program history, and though they waxed San Diego St. in the First Four, they were then taken out in the Round of 64 by Ole Miss.
Wilson's injury could provide some cover for the Hubert apologists in the fanbase, but for everyone else, it's getting close to put up or shut up time. Being bounced in the first round again could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
As much as the Heels want to win, it will be tough for Carolina fans to muster much hatred of VCU. That's because most still remember the 2007 upset, ironically enough in another 6-11 game, when the Rams beat Duke. Eric Maynor, the one who hit the game-winner with under two seconds left, is still held in high regard by Tar Heels everywhere, much like CJ McCollum of Lehigh, for his role in knocking out the hated Blue Devils.
Should the Tar Heels find a way to win, they'll likely run into Illinois in the second round. The 3-seeded Illini have had a tremendous season, and if this matchup comes to pass, it will call to mind one of the all-time great national championship games. Current Tar Heel assistant Sean May won Most Outstanding Player honors for the team that toppled Deron Williams and company for the 2005 national title, and this would be just their second tournament meeting and their sixth meeting ever.
Fans won't have to wait long to see this excellent matchup, as it will take place on Thursday night at 6:50 p.m. ET. The Greenville, South Carolina location should result in a pro-Tar Heel crowd, but VCU usually travels well too, and it's only about two more hours from Richmond to Greenville than it is from Chapel Hill. The Heels are a slim 2.5 point favorite at most sportsbooks at the time of this writing, so this one really could go either way.