There's nothing more exciting than watching your team in March Madness. But an early round upset can put a damper on that enthusiasm pretty quickly. Although if you don't have allegiance to any squad, perhaps you're hoping for a few early-round upsets. The 2026 Women's NCAA Tournament kicks off its first round this Friday, March 20. While I don't think we'll be seeing any 1-seed vs. 16-seed upsets this year, there are still some top seeds we could see early exits from.
Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The 2026 Women's NCAA Tournament begins March 20 with several top seeds facing potential early exits.
- Key matchups include a defensive showdown between Virginia Tech and Oregon and a high-scoring battle between Notre Dame and Ohio State.
- These games will test both star power and strategic adjustments, setting the stage for unexpected turns.
Here are a few potential first and second round upsets to be on the lookout for.
No. 9 Virginia Tech vs. No. 8 Oregon
A No. 9 over a No. 8 isn't necessarily a groundbreaking upset, but I do think this matchup will be a very exciting one. I also think it could ultimately end with Oregon going home. The Hokies have juniors Carleigh Wenzel and Carys Baker at the helm. Despite the loss to North Carolina in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals, Virginia Tech was hot to end the regular season. In their regular-season finale, against Virginia, Wenzel put up 29 points.
Oregon had a tougher schedule this season. They faced Michigan, Ohio State, and Maryland late in the season. Has that better prepared them for March? Only time will tell. But what I do know is that they will have to stop Wenzel and Baker. I also think Virginia Tech has the slight upper hand defensively. This matchup will be one you definitely want to watch; there's star power on both sides, and it could really go either way.
No. 11 Nebraska/Richmond vs. No. 6 Baylor
Nebraska and Richmond will be facing off in the First Four, but I believe either one of them could send Baylor packing in the First Round. Baylor has not had the greatest of years. They opened up the season with a victory over No. 7 Duke, but lost to almost all of their AP-ranked opponents after that.
Both Nebraska and Richmond shoot better from the field than Baylor. In the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinal, the Baylor Bears ultimately fell to Colorado. They had an off night, shooting only 31 percent from the floor. They have also had a slight problem with turnovers all season, averaging 16.6 per game. Either opponent holds factors that will make Baylor's win tough. If they face Richmond, they will face the threat of three-point shooting. The Spiders rank seventh nationally in 3-point attempts per game — if they get hot, it could mean trouble for Baylor. On the other hand, Nebraska has Britt Prince. Prince is averaging 17.4 points per game, shooting 53.4 percent from the floor.
No. 10 Tennessee vs. No. 7 NC State
Interestingly enough, this will be a regular-season rematch. It also has the potential of being the best game of the first round. NC State beat Tennessee by three points in their season opener back in November. I'm sure that's exactly what the Lady Vols thought of when they saw their names beside each other on the bracket.
Both squads had their respective seasons, which I'm sure they both wish had gone a little better. I wouldn't necessarily say these numbers are representative of the talent on both of these squads, but nonetheless, here they are in the 10-seed, 7-seed matchup. NC State has Zoe Brooks and Khalil Pierre, who have both had great seasons. Tennessee's duo of Talaysia Cooper and Janiah Baker has also had a phenomenal year. Both Tennessee stars will have to show up if they are hoping for the upset. And maybe that early loss to the Wolfpack can be the chip on their shoulders this team needs to pull it off. There's no doubt this game will be worth watching.
No. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 4 Minnesota
Despite losing to Texas in the semifinal of the SEC Tournament, Ole Miss should be feeling a bit of confidence heading into the NCAA tourney. They defeated No. 5 Vanderbilt in a 89-78 victory in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. This was their second time beating Vanderbilt this season. With time off, I expect the Rebels to be rejuvenated after a long stretch of games. I expect them to get past Gonzaga in the first round, and they will need that energy to battle against this Minnesota team on the Golden Gophers' home court.
To pull off this upset, Cotie McMahon will need to be dominant. She averages 19.9 points per game and shoots 45.1 percent from the field. Across all games this season, Ole Miss is 14-4 when McMahon has 20+ points. It's a tall order, but it might be necessary if they want a spot in the Sweet Sixteen. Minnesota, on the other hand, is a lethal three-point shooting team. Junior Grace Grocholski shoots 42.3 percent from beyond the arc. Ole Miss will need to find a way to slow that down. This matchup could end up being one of the best of the second round.
No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Speaking of the best potential matchups in the second round, this one is a top contender. Notre Dame vs. Ohio State could easily turn into which superstar is having a better night — Hannah Hidalgo or Jaloni Cambridge? Hidalgo averages 25.2 points per game, while Cambridge averages 22.8 per game. Not only are both these players their team's top offensive weapon, but their defense is unmatched as well. Hidalgo leads the nation in steals. Although the Buckeyes have another defensive weapon, Jaloni's sister, Kennedy Cambridge, who is fifth in the nation in steals. The Buckeyes will also be hosting this game.
Notre Dame has had a bit of an off-season, but they have the talent to win this matchup and advance to the Sweet Sixteen. They're playing their best basketball of the season after defeating Louisville in the regular-season finale and only losing to Duke by 2 in the ACC semifinal. Hannah Hidalgo will have to have a great night, but that's something I'd never put past her — especially in March.
No. 5 Kentucky vs. No. 4 West Virginia
This matchup will be tough for Kentucky, as they will have to play this game in Morgantown. West Virginia earned their spot in the Top 16 with a Big 12 Tournament title win. They should be feeling pretty good heading into the NCAA tournament, and should breeze past the first round, as should Kentucky. But this second-round matchup will be challenging for both. I see Kentucky pulling off the potential upset here.
Kentucky has one of the best post players in the nation in Clara Strack. She averages 17.1 points and 10 rebounds per game. She is also fifth in the nation with an average of 2.6 blocks per game. The Wildcats will need their offense to pull off this upset. The Mountaineers play elite defense; they allow an average of 58.1 points per game. It's a good thing Kentucky also has Tonie Morgan and Teonni Key in its arsenal. This potential matchup will definitely be worth watching — and Kentucky absolutely can send West Virginia packing.