The ACC is going to cause a whole lot of havoc when the final College Football Playoff rankings are released because a few things could happen. The ACC could have a conference champion that won’t be ranked high enough to get into the CFP, it could have a scenario like last year where two mediocre ACC teams get it after the underdog wins the conference title, or the most dramatic, the CFP has to put in multiple Group of 6 teams.
Virginia and Louisville lost the week after Georgia Tech lost, meaning five ACC teams have just one conference loss. The problem here is that teams like Duke are included in that; Duke however is 5-4. I don’t see how the CFP will allow a four-loss team to get into the CFP this year, even if it is a Power 4 conference.
If Duke somehow is the ACC’s conference champion, it’s going to get really convoluted on how the CFP selection committee will decide which conference champion to put in the CFP and if the ACC has one at all. Buckle up, the worst of the P4 conferences is about to create a whole lot of chaos.
Is it realistic that the ACC doesn’t have a team in the CFP?
I think the CFP selection committee should send a message to the ACC in that if they keep beating each other and losing to the bottom-feeders in the conference, they won’t be rewarded with a playoff appearance. There’s no such thing as a good four-loss team, especially with the context of the College Football Playoff. If Duke forces the CFP into that decision, the ACC should just get omitted altogether.
Duke’s remaining schedule includes Virginia, North Carolina and Wake Forest. Realistically, they could win all three of those. If they do, they’d have the head-to-head over Virginia but don’t have the head-to-head to Georgia Tech. SMU, the other one-loss conference team, plays Louisville, which is essentially an elimination game as well.
As of now, Pitt makes the strongest argument with Georgia Tech and Miami, both ranked opponents, left on their schedule. That said, nothing about what the ACC has done this year has been routine, so I would expect the worst case scenarios to happen where a four-loss Duke actually has a chance and Miami implodes and the fate of the conference lies with the Blue Devils and Louisville.
The ACC’s implosion opens the door for two G6 teams to land in the College Football Playoff
If there’s any year that multiple Group of Six teams can get into the College Football Playoff it’s this year. Memphis might have played themselves out of contention, but there are still quite a few Group of Six teams that make the argument to get in over a miserable Duke team or really any ACC team not named Miami.
James Madison, San Diego State, South Florida, North Texas and Tulane all put themselves in position to crash the party. There’s a chance one of the G6 teams to get in is from the American (either South Florida, North Texas or Tulane) and the other could be from either the Mountain West (San Diego State) or the Sun Belt (James Madison). With the American having three respectable teams left, it’s not out of the question two can get in.
For that to happen, I think South Florida has to be the higher-ranked team and then ends up losing to either Tulane or North Texas in the title game for both to get in. This is obviously contingent on the ACC playing itself out of contention. Also, for that to happen, the Mountain West champion and Sun Belt champion (San Diego State and James Madison in this case) would need to be ranked lower.
It’s probably more likely two different G6 conference champions get in over two G6 teams from the same conference. That said, it’s unprecedented territory as the G6 makes a strong argument to get in over the ACC.
Should multiple G6 teams get in over the ACC?
I think we’ll learn a lot about this selection committee over the next few weeks. How much does being a P4 team really give you an advantage over the smaller schools? The selection committee should be bold enough to put two G6 teams in this year because the ACC doesn’t deserve to have its conference champion in if it’s not Miami or Georgia Tech.
If Duke is the conference’s representative, you can’t punish the smaller conferences for a mediocre Power 4 team. It has to be a very unique situation for multiple G6 teams to get in, but I think if the cards fall right, the committee has to do what’s right.