No one in college football took more flak than Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning early in the season. And to be clear, that was wholly deserved. The former No. 1 overall recruit was proclaimed as a Heisman Trophy frontrunner, the favorite to be the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, and the quarterback who would lead Texas to its first national championship in two decades. So when he looked completely overwhelmed and out of his depth over the first month of the season, the heat came down on him.
And yet, now that the calendar has flipped to November, the narrative around Arch Manning should be flipping, too. He's not playing like the same quarterback who was in over his head with the Longhorns. In fact, you could argue that he's been the best part of the Texas offense for a month now and only keeps getting better.
That's huge for Manning in itself, even if he's still destined to stay another year and not venture off to the NFL Draft. But it's also a harrowing proposition for the rest of college football. Arch elevating himself means that Texas isn't just "not going away" — they're about to be a factor in the College Football Playoff race to the bitter end.
We need to take notice of Arch Manning coming into his own
Just looking at Manning alone, the improvements are evident with both the eye test and in the box score. Sure, he's not been perfect (the Kentucky game and his performance made sure of that), but he's also been a true difference-maker for the Longhorns more often than not for the past month as Texas keeps chugging along.
Manning wasn't otherworldly in the upset win over Oklahoma in Red River, but against one of the nation's best defenses, he was efficient and secure with the football, going 21-of-27 for 166 yards and a touchdown with 34 rushing yards and taking only one sack. He came out of the bye with an ugly performance against Kentucky, but bounced back in the thrilling comeback win over Mississippi State.
Despite a slow start that seemed like a hangover from the Kentucky game, Manning turned it on when the Longhorns needed it most, finishing the game going 29-of-46 for 346 yards (a season-high), three touchdowns and one interception while rushing for another score as well. And then in Texas' biggest game since Red River, all he did was go 12-of-16 for 200 yards and two scores to take a commanding lead over Vanderbilt in the first half.
But beyond the numbers, you can just see the improvement. His mechanics are getting cleaner by the week, most notably not rushing or trying to side-arm throws when under pressure. He's manipulating the pocket and maneuvering around at a much more effective rate, and he's also shown exponentially more poise when asked to move beyond his first read or when he needs to buy time.
It's truly night and day from the player that we saw leading the Texas offense early in the season and, frankly, his team has needed it. While this defense is one of the country's most talented, they were being worked to the bone early in the season and starting to show cracks. Meanwhile, the Longhorns rushing attack has still been lackluster, as has the offensive line play. That's put a lot of the onus on Manning to step up for Texas to stay alive in the College Football Playoff race, and he's done just that.
Texas can still be a CFB Playoff factor with Arch Manning making a leap
Due to Manning's early-season struggles and Texas taking losses to Ohio State and Florida, everyone was quick to write off the Longhorns. Yet, those remain the only two losses on their schedule and there is a bounty of opportunities ahead for this team. They took the commanding lead over a Top 10 team in Vanderbilt in Week 10, but also still have a date with Georgia in Week 12 and with Texas A&M in the season finale, all of which would build one of the best résumés in college football for Steve Sarkisian's team if they pick up the wins.
And that's the rub of it. There's a reason that the power ratings have still loved Texas this season in spite of their struggles. The talent on this team has never been in question, but Manning, among other things, weren't allowing them to operate at peak efficiency. With the quarterback taking this step forward, that masks a lot of the issues — and that's before even considering that Manning might still have more leaps to make as well.
This isn't saying that Texas is a College Football Playoff lock. With the loss to Florida, their margin for error is quite slim. At the same time, you do absolutely still have to take the Longhorns seriously. They aren't remotely dead in the water when it comes to their postseason hopes and goals, and Manning finally starting to flash the potential that Texas long believed in is the driving force behind keeping those dreams alive.