2026 NFL Draft mock first-round projection: Fernando Mendoza a Saints savior, Carnell Tate goes cross-country

Five QBs go in the first round of our latest mock draft projection, but defense still wins the day.
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza | Michael Hickey/GettyImages

The NFL Trade Deadline is always going to make fans think about the potential deals that could be made, whether their favorite team is a buyer or a seller. However, if you zoom out a bit, especially when it comes to sellers (but also for every other team), it's impossible not to think about the 2026 NFL Draft. If the New England Patriots trade for a wide receiver, would they still draft one? Would the New Orleans Saints, New York Jets or even the Miami Dolphins do anything to shake up the QB room for the future? That all plays into the draft, and that's beyond the picks that can be moved.

So with the trade deadline approaching quickly, we have to take stock of where things stand for the 2026 NFL Draft. Obviously, the best way to do that is to dive full-on into a mock draft, projecting every first-round pick. The quarterback class and market will dominate the conversation, but the starts from Ohio State and on defense throughout the country will make the first round a wild ride as things currently stand.

2026 NFL Mock Draft projection for the full first-round

1. New Orleans Saints: QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

While second-round rookie Tyler Shough is slated to make his first start for the Saints in Week 9, I wasn't a believer in the Louisville product when New Orleans drafted him. That hasn't changed — and it might even be a stronger feeling after Shough took until midway through the season to take the job from middling Spencer Rattler.

But I am a believer in Fernando Mendoza. When you go across the board, Mendoza checks the boxes with plus arm strength, phenomenal ball placement, solid athleticism and ability to get out of the pocket, and a plethora of experience from his time at Cal and now Indiana. Any QB-needy team picking first overall would be foolish, in my estimation, to take anyone other than Mendoza.

2. New York Jets: QB Ty Simpson, Alabama

I'll be the first to admit that I was a Ty Simpson skeptic coming into the season. And his first start for Alabama in their lone loss of the year to Florida State in the season opener was confirmation bias for me. Since that time, however, Simpson has progressed rapidly. His arm strength has been on display in multiple ways, finding tight windows and fitting the ball in, dropping throws into a bucket, and perhaps most importantly, just becoming better with his timing and feel as a quarterback.

The Justin Fields experiment has gone quite poorly for the Jets and it's time for yet another quarterback reset. While Simpson's lack of experience is still a concern when it comes to an NFL projection, his talent is undeniable.

3. Tennessee Titans: EDGE Rueben Bain Jr., Miami (FL)

The one thing that can definitively be said that the Titans don't need at this point is a quarterback after drafting Cam Ward first overall in 2025. Now, to be sure, that doesn't make it a certainty that Ward is a franchise quarterback, but it does mean that Tennessee needs to see what they have in totality.

In that state of the franchise, taking maybe the most talented prospect in the class, Rueben Bain Jr., makes complete sense. Despite having just three sacks, the Miami star has been near unguardable off the edge with his blend of length, explosiveness, and football IQ. He'll be a star in Tennessee's defense for years to come.

4. Cleveland Browns: OT Spencer Fano, Utah

Not that this is a new thing to say, but the Browns could've very easily gone the quarterback route here with the fourth overall pick. However, with the team currently not in a position to get one of the top two guys, making a swing on someone like Spencer Fano and rolling with either Dillon Gabriel, Shedeur Sanders, or another veteran at quarterback in 2026.

Fano is what the Cleveland offensive line needs in its current state. Things have deteriorated in the trenches, particularly at tackle, and the Utah product has the frame and movement skills to be a tone-setter right away and for years to come.

5. Miami Dolphins: QB Dante Moore Jr., Oregon

With the firing of Chris Grier, you can expect massive changes coming the Dolphins' way thereafter. Among those might be moving on from Tua Tagovailoa, or at least preparing to do so. The latter case might be drafting Dante Moore Jr.

The Oregon standout has been phenomenal in his first season as the Ducks' starter, but does have a lack of overall experience working against him. At the same time, though, the tools are incredibly enticing with his arm and natural feel for the position. He'd afford Miami a chance to ease off Tua and lessen the dead cap hit to move on for at least one year.

6. New York Giants: S Caleb Downs, Ohio State

At least for now, it appears the Giants hit paydirt by trading up to select Jaxson Dart this past April, and Abdul Carter has been delivering as well. With that said, New York is still in line for a Top 10 pick in the 2026 draft because the rest of the roster simply isn't up to par around the quarterback quite yet.

However, that does leave New York in a luxury position to take Caleb Downs, who many have called the draft class' best player, but at a non-premium position. With the state of the Giants secondary, though, adding the ultra versatile Ohio State safety to the mix and using his skills as a return man could still make him well worth the pick.

7. Baltimore Ravens: LB/EDGE Arvell Reese, Ohio State

Perhaps the biggest riser in the 2026 NFL Draft thus far has been Arvell Reese. While listed as a linebacker by Ohio State, he's a do-it-all type of weapon in the mold of — and I understand the weight of this comparison — Micah Parsons with his ability to stand up and play linebacker or be a menace off of the edge.

Baltimore's defense has been aging and declining in performance in too many spots for my liking, but especially on the defensive front. Allowing Reese to be unleashed in multiple ways could help the Ravens start to piece this all back together on that side of the ball as they remain in search of a Super Bowl run with Lamar Jackson.

8. Las Vegas Raiders: QB LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

The execution of the Raiders' expedited rebuild this offseason was lacking, to say the least. Geno Smith has turned into a pumpkin this season, the offensive line was never ready, and the same is likely true of the defense. That puts Pete Carroll and Company in a tough spot, but I stand by the fact that hitting reset at QB is the most important thing they can do.

By my estimation, no quarterback in the 2026 class has a higher ceiling than LaNorris Sellers. His blend of elite athleticism and continually progressing passing ability make him a potential force at the next level. He may return to school still, but the tools would still be enough for him to be a Top 10 pick, and allowing him to sit behind Smith for a year could be in the Raiders' best interest.

9. Arizona Cardinals: OT Francis Mauigoa, Miami (FL)

Given some of the scuttlebutt out of Arizona right now, we could see the Cardinals in the mix or at least the conversation for quarterbacks this offseason as the commitment to Kyler Murray appears to be waning. For now, though, we;ll do our best to keep improving the situation around Murray with Francis Mauigoa.

He's allowed just three sacks over more than 1,300 snaps in the last two seasons, and could be the versatile offensive line piece that Arizona has been trying to find for some time. Solidifying the trenches is priority No. 1 if the Cardinals don't shake things up at quarterback.

10. Cincinnati Bengals: EDGE T.J. Parker, Clemson

Yes, the Bengals just drafted Shemar Stewart in the first round last year. No, that shouldn't stop them from going back to the edge rusher group. Not only are they all but sure to lose Trey Hendrickson this offseason (or in the near future if they franchise tag him), but Cincinnati hasn't exactly gotten a good return from Stewart so far as a rookie either.

While Clemson has fallen off this season in a bad way, that doesn't mean T.J. Parker has been any less of a player. He's the great blend of steady fundamentals with high-end traits that could help get the Bengals defense back on any sort of positive track instead of just being a sieve every week.

11. Los Angeles Rams (via ATL): CB Jermod McCoy, Tennessee

Les Snead has to wonder every day why the Falcons were foolish enough to trade their 2026 first-rounder to them, but the Rams aren't going to complain. This secondary has been a bit of an issue for most of the season in LA, and they now have the 11th overall pick to take the top corner in the draft class, Jermod McCoy.

Injuries have limited McCoy's availability for the Vols at times this season, but he hasn't missed a beat when he's been on the field. He has the length, footwork and overall body of work that you look for in a first-round cornerback, and the Rams would find an instant upgrade to their current DB room.

12. Washington Commanders: WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State

There are certainly other needs that Washington could explore if they have a Top 15 selection in the 2026 draft, but I can't stop thinking about what Jayden Daniels might need at receiver. Deebo Samuel's most effective years might be behind him, and while Terry McLaurin is now extended, his availability remains a concern for the Commanders.

So, it would only make sense for Washington to stop the "fall" of Jordyn Tyson to make him the top wide receiver in the draft. He's done nothing but keep looking the part of a WR1 at the NFL level with a 6-foot-2, 200-pound frame, great footwork and movement skills, a diverse route tree, and an obvious dawg mentality. He'd open the Commanders offense up even further upon arrival.

13. Minnesota Vikings: DL Peter Woods, Clemson

Again going back to the Clemson defense, Peter Woods is another go who continues to be a fascinating piece at the NFL level. His size at 300+ pounds combined with his get-off and versatility make him a weapon on the interior, even if the production hasn't quite matched that this season with the Tigers.

For Minnesota, though, they banked hard on the veteran additions of Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen this offseason, but both players have woefully underperformed. Woods could inject some youth into that group and allow the Vikings to become more multiple up front under Brian Flores.

14. Houston Texans: OT Kadyn Proctor, Alabama

There might not be an easier mock draft selection to make week in and week out than giving the Texas whoever the best available offensive lineman on the board is. Houston is starting to show signs of turning things around after a slow start, but the guys protecting C.J. Stroud up front are overall still lacking in quality.

In this projection, Kadyn Proctor falls to this team as an absolute gift. While the Alabama product's career has been a mixed bag, he's come into his own over the last couple of months and is living up to his immense raw talent. He's a freak with the way he can move at his size, and he could put that to good use as a bookend of the future for Houston.

15. Dallas Cowboys: EDGE David Bailey, Texas Tech

It's entirely possible that Jerry Jones puts the Cowboys in a spot where the defensive needs might change moving forward at the trade deadline. That remains to be seen with any kind of conviction, though, and that means that any mock draft should be about replenishing the defensive talent in Dallas right now.

That's where keeping Texas Tech star David Bailey in the state would make a ton of sense. Bailey is one of the best pure pass rushers in college football, already notching 11 sacks and 27 hurries this season. He has the speed, length and moves to be impressively productive at the next level too, and his improving run defense only makes him more attractive to a defense like the Cowboys.

16. Carolina Panthers: EDGE Cashius Howell, Texas A&M

For us to actually get a legitimate read on what the Panthers could do in the draft or in any regard when it comes to their future, it'd be great for Bryce Young to give Carolina some definitive sign about his long-term prospects. He's been up and down this year after a strong finish to 2024, so the jury is still out. Where it's not out, though, is that this defense needs difference-makers in a huge way.

Cashius Howell wasn't on many high-end draft radars to begin the season, but he is now. With 10 sacks already this season and a ridiculously good 24.7% pass rush win rate, he's been a consistent presence in opposing backfields this season regardless of level of competition. Put simply, the Panthers don't have a pass rusher of his caliber on the roster, and they direly need one.

17. Chicago Bears: EDGE Keldric Faulk, Auburn

Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams are showing more signs with each passing week that this marriage is going to work out just fine. The problem with the Bears right now is that I don't believe the defense is up to snuff to match what the offense is capable of at this point. They not only need better depth, but also could improve at the top of the depth chart as well, and that includes on the edge.

Keldric Faulk appears to be the right type of player in that capacity. While his pass rush numbers have slightly declined from a season ago, he's one of the most well-rounded edge defenders in the class with a stout track record against the run. With more coaching to mine nuance from his pass rush, he could be a steady presence that Chicago needs on the edge.

18. Kansas City Chiefs: TE Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon

Another year, another set of questions about if this is the final ride for Travis Kelce in Kansas City. This time, however, it feels like it might actually be the time when the Chiefs have to part ways with their longtime staple in the offense. And given how integral he's been for Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, it only makes sense that they would now look to use a premium pick on his replacement.

They won't find anyone better for than Kenyon Sadiq. While he likely needs to add just a bit of weight at the next level to his 245-pound frame, his movement ability and versatility as a pass-catcher should fit seamlessly into the Chiefs offense and give this team a real succession plan for Kelce.

19. Pittsburgh Steelers: QB John Mateer, Oklahoma

There was a time in this college football season when it looked like John Mateer might be a Top 10 pick. That's cooled off for the Oklahoma signal-caller, especially as a hand injury has heightened the spotlight on some of his decision-making and improvisation that needs improvement, but the talent is still there.

And for the Steelers, using a late first-rounder on Mateer, if he doesn't return to the Sooners, could make perfect sense. There's growing buzz that Aaron Rodgers could return for another season, and giving Mateer a year to sit behind him and learn could do wonders for his NFL future. It all depends on how aggressive Pittsburgh wants to be in addressing the long-term future at the position.

20. Cleveland Browns (via JAX): WR Makai Lemon, USC

Back to the Browns with the pick sent to them from Jacksonville in the Travis Hunter trade, we've already established that, at least in this mock draft, they aren't in the quarterback market. But if they want to give whoever is under center a real chance, Cleveland needs to improve its offensive weapons as Jerry Jeudy has fallen off a cliff.

Makai Lemon could certainly help that cause right away. Though he doesn't have the build of a traditional WR1 at 5-foot-11, 195 pounds, but he checks every other box. He has a versatile route tree that we've seen grow even this season, his movement skills in space are scary good, and he could absolutely provide a spark to an offense that despereately needs it.

21. San Francisco 49ers: CB Mansoor Delane, LSU

Despite the turmoil in Baton Rouge this season, that hasn't stopped Mansoor Delane from establishing himself as one of the draft's top cornerbacks. He's been shutdown this season, even with only one interception to his credit for LSU. That's best evidenced by his eye-popping 28.8 passer rating allowed when targeted this season.

San Francisco needs to start revamping the defense, which we're seeing clearly without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner on the field. Obviously, Delane won't step in for either of those guys, but he could help fortify that side of the ball for the 49ers to help this roster better withstand injuries moving forward.

22. Los Angeles Chargers: DL Caleb Banks, Florida

It's honestly impressive that the Chargers have been able to keep their heads above water with the litany of injuries that they've suffered this season. That's a good spot to be in for Los Angeles, though, because it's indicative of the fact that they should stick to their plan and not overreact too much to the current state of the roster, given what it could look like when they get healthy.

That's why Caleb Banks is the obvious selection with the 22nd pick in this mock draft. Florida's defensive star has been sidelined due to injury for much of this season, but we saw an absolute monster a season ago. There's an argument that he could've been a Top 15 lock if he stayed healthy this season, but that's a risk worth taking for a Chargers team that needs some pop on the interior defensive line.

23. Los Angeles Rams: OL Gennings Dunker, Iowa

Back on the clock, this time with their own pick, the Rams got the best cornerback in the draft with their first selection. But now should be the time when they turn the attention to the other side of the ball. Specifically, LA's offensive line has, at times, looked like it's held together by duct tape and a prayer. That hasn't slowed them down, but they could ultimately make life easier on themselves.

Gennings Dunker would be a fantastic option, especially under Sean McVay, to do that. He's been a stalwart at tackle for Iowa and one of the most consistent edge-setters in the country. However, many have suggested he might be better at guard in the NFL. That's a good problem to have for the Rams, as their always-coveted versatility on the offensive line will make Dunker a natural fit to get the best five out there to protect Matthew Stafford.

24. Detroit Lions: EDGE R Mason Thomas, Oklahoma

The same refrain from last year is still being sung for the Lions defense again. Detroit just locked up Aidan Hutchinson to a long-term contract, but that side of the ball is still missing a running mate for their former top-five pick on the opposite edge. They got boxed out of the EDGE class in the 2025 draft, but that won't happen with the depth in the 2026 class, and they get a stud in R Mason Thomas.

While his name makes him sound like a lawyer in a syndicated network drama, Thomas isn't just acting the part for Oklahoma. The 6-foot-2, 249-pound pass rusher has a 20.1% pass rush win rate on the year, has 18 hurries and five sacks to his credit, and has made great strides defending the run. His speed opposite Hutchinson should create a dynamic duo for the Lions for the next several years.

25. Buffalo Bills: LB Sonny Styles, Ohio State

Unfortunately, Buffalo's past couple of seasons have revealed that the incredible run of Matt Milano might be coming to an end. That's going to be tough in losing a low-key franchise stalwart for the Bills and this defense, but they have the opportunity to find a replacement for him with Sonny Styles starring for the Buckeyes in Columbus this season and making a case for his NFL future.

Not only is Styles versatile in the way that he can fill the run at a high level with great instincts, but also drop into coverage and be a plus asset patrolling the middle of the field. Most importantly, though, he's as sure as they come with a 0.0% missed tackle rate this season, improving upon a serious issue from last year with 19 missed tackles. If that continues, Buffalo would be jumping for joy to add him to their defense.

26. Seattle Seahawks: WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State

With all of the focus being put on Jeremiah Smith (who isn't eligible until the 2027 draft) for Ohio State's offense, we probably weren't talking enough about Carnell Tate. We definitely are now, however, as the Buckeyes star has been phenomenal as a weapon for inexperienced Julian Sayin, catching 34 of 41 targets this season for 587 yards and already a career-high six touchdowns.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, another former Buckeyes star, has become one of the league's best receivers this year in Seattle, but the depth of the Seahawks wide receiver room is clearly lacking. The dice-roll on Cooper Kupp has yielded middling results, and adding Tate to the mix with JSN could be exactly what Sam Darnold and Klint Kubiak need to find another gear.

27. Denver Broncos: RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame

Yes, I know that everyone loves R.J. Harvey and, admittedly, the late-round rookie has absolutely flashed this season when given limited opportunities. Having said that, it's also been quite clear that Sean Payton and the Broncos are at least mildly tentative about giving him a full workload. And with Jeremiyah Love falling this far, I have to believe Denver would have a hard time passing him up.

After the first two weeks of the season, the spotlight has gotten off Notre Dame, which has let Love's unreal season go somewhat under the radar. 758 rushing yards at 6.1 yards per carry, nine rushing scores, and 197 receiving yards in seven games shouldn't be unnoticed, though. He's as dynamic as they come and could open up Bo Nix's offense even more in 2026.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: EDGE Romello Height, Texas Tech

Though the Buccaneers might be arguably the most fun watch in the NFL right now, it's also not hard to see where this team is a bit flawed. That's particularly true when it comes to this defense, which gets the job done under Todd Bowles, but has also looked overmatched in key moments at times both this year and in recent seasons.

Adding someone like the explosive Romello Height might be a remedy for that. While he's not much of a run defender with his 240-pound frame, he's a bolt of lightning off the edge with 26 hurries and a 20.7% pass rush win rate this season. The Bucs could use that kind of impact player, even if it's only on passing downs early in his career, to help solidify the defense.

29. New England Patirots: WR Denzel Boston, Washington

Drake Maye has left no doubt that he's the next franchise quarterback for the Patriots, and that's all while working with Stefon Diggs and what ultimately amounts to a solid and well-orchestrated supporting cast. However, the inherent truth in that for New England is that Diggs isn't getting any younger and this pass-catcher group simply might not have a star in its midst.

They can change that by drafting Denzel Boston. The Washington product has 668 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in just eight games this season for the Huskies, and it's not hard to see why. At 6-foot-4, 209 pounds, he's a huge target that's a matchup nightmare against man coverage, especially with impressive speed and agility at his size, but his feel for the position makes him even more dangerous.

30. Philadelphia Eagles: WR Chris Bell, Louisville

Even if the Eagles don't end up trading AJ Brown before the Nov. 4 deadline, the friction between the star wide receiver and Jalen Hurts has to make you think that the marriage won't last much longer and that Brown could be playing elsewhere next season. That heightens the need for another wide receiver alongside Devonta Smith greatly. And though there are a number of great options, Chris Bell is emerging as someone who'd be perfect in this spot.

Bell moves unbelievably well for a player who's 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, and that's resulted in 687 yards and six touchdowns in just seven games already this year for Louisville. Perhaps most impressively, he's been at his best against the Cardinals' toughest matchups this season, and seems to fit the mold that Brown did for what the Eagles would like to do offensively.

31. Dallas Cowboys (via GB): CB Avieon Terrell, Clemson

The writing might be on the wall that Trevon Diggs' time with the Cowboys is coming to a close. With concerns about his health becoming untenable and his performance also dropping amid all of the injuries he's dealt with, they could look to move on sooner than fans might even expect. But that certainly means Dallas needs to do everything they can to start regaining traction in the secondary.

Even at just 5-foot-11, Avieon Terrell could absolutely help Dallas do exactly that. He's a solid, well-versed and versatile coverage player, but he plays well above his size when coming up against the run as well. Pairing him with DaRon Bland and (hopefully) Shavon Revel could help the Cowboys recapture some of the magic we saw under Dan Quinn in the defensive back room.

32. Indianapolis Colts: CB Colton Hood, Tennessee

Perhaps the biggest question the Colts will face this offseason is what the hell they're going to do with Daniel Jones. The quarterback has been the perfect addition for Indianapolis, but is only on a one-year deal. In all likelihood, they'll find a way to keep him, but doing so will mean that this organization needs to plug its holes on defense to build around Indiana Jones.

Colton Hood would be a phenomenal option to help with that, simply because the Colts have so many holes in the defensive back room right now. The Tennessee product has been forced into bigger action with McCoy's injuries, but the redshirt sophomore has shown improvement with each opportunity. Combine that with nice length and good ball instincts, he would elevate the Indy defense just by stepping on the field.