It feels like just about every year in college football, we're having to examine Big 12 tiebreaker scenarios to determine which teams will be playing in the conference championship game. And sure enough, that's the case for the Big 12 Championship Game once again, as there are still six teams alive to make it to Arlington with only two weeks remaining in the regular season. The Texas Tech Red Raiders and BYU Cougars are the frontrunners, but they're not guaranteed anything with games to still be played and College Football Playoff berths still hanging in the balance.
Perhaps no Power Four conference has been defined by chaos quite like the Big 12, especially when it comes to the championship game race annually. Just last year, Arizona State — who's still alive in the 2025 season — didn't punch its ticket to the Big 12 title game until the final week of the season, and that was just the tip of the iceberg with all of the possibilities. It's less chaotic this year, at least for now, but let's dive into what all is still in play with the Big 12 tiebreakers based on the current standings.
Current Big 12 standings
Big 12 Standings | Conference Record | Overall Record |
|---|---|---|
1. Texas Tech | 7-1 | 10-1 |
2. BYU Cougars | 6-1 | 9-1 |
3. Utah Utes | 5-2 | 8-2 |
4. Houston | 5-2 | 8-2 |
5. Arizona State | 5-2 | 7-3 |
6. Cincinnati | 5-2 | 7-3 |
7. Arizona | 4-3 | 7-3 |
8. Kansas State | 4-3 | 5-5 |
9. Iowa State | 3-4 | 6-4 |
10. TCU | 3-4 | 6-4 |
11. Baylor | 3-4 | 5-5 |
12. Kansas | 3-4 | 5-5 |
13. West Virginia | 2-6 | 4-7 |
14. UCF | 1-6 | 4-6 |
15. Colorado | 1-6 | 3-7 |
16. Oklahoma State | 0-7 | 1-9 |
Every team that has only two losses in the conference to this point is still alive in the Big 12 Championship Game race. That means that Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, Houston, Arizona State and Cincinnati could all still make it to Arlington depending on how things play out over the final two weeks of the regular season, though some certainly need more help than others.
It's even crazier, though, to just see the turnover in the conference from last season. Arizona State is among the team that needs a good bit of help after they won the league last year, while Colorado has gone from in the mix a year ago to at the bottom of the standings. Let's also not forget that Iowa State and Kansas State, two of the preseason favorites, have already been eliminated.
But let's hone in now on the teams that are still alive, and what they need to happen to win tiebreakers and play their way into the Big 12 title game.
Big 12 tiebreaker scenarios for the 6 remaining contenders
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Remaining Schedule: at West Virginia
No team is sitting as pretty as Texas Tech. Not only are the Red Raiders on bye in Week 13, but they only have to beat four-win West Virginia in order to punch their ticket to Arlington. That's the likeliest outcome, but even if Joey McGuire's team were to suffer a truly shocking upset on the road against the Mountaineers, they could still make the Big 12 Championship Game.
If BYU were to lose either of their remaining games against Cincinnati or UCF, the Red Raiders' head-to-head win over the Cougars would earn Texas Tech the tiebreaker and still get them to the conference championship bout.
BYU Cougars
Remaining Schedule: at Cincinnati | vs. UCF
As mentioned, BYU is in a somewhat similar boat to Texas Tech in that they ultimately control their own destiny and have one of the simplest paths to the Big 12 title game. If the Cougars win out, beating Cincinnati and UCF to finish the year, then that will push Kalani Sitake's team into its first conference championship game since joining the Big 12. However, they too could lose one of those games in the regular season and still make it to Arlington with some help.
If the Cougars were to lose just one of their remaining matchups, they could still play for the WWE championship belt if Arizona State loses one of its two remaining games this season against either Colorado or in the rivalry matchup with Arizona, as BYU would win a three-way tiebreaker with Houston and Utah in such a scenario.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Remaining Schedule: at Colorado | vs. Arizona
For Arizona State to have a chance at defending their Big 12 championship from last season, the first thing that the Sun Devils need is to win out. Wins over Colorado and Arizona would keep them alive, even with the injuries that have largely derailed this season in Tempe in relation to preseason expectation, but they would then need some help.
Kenny Dillingham's team would need one of two things to happen if they finish the season at 7-2 in conference play. In the first scenario, they would need Utah to also win out and for BYU to lose one of their remaining games. The other possibility that would push Arizona State forward at this point would be if both Utah and BYU lost one of their two remaining games.
Utah Utes
Remaining Schedule: vs. Kansas State | at Kansas
Head-to-head losses against both Texas Tech and BYU have proven detrimental to Utah's chances of playing in the Big 12 Championship Game, but the Utes aren't out of it just yet. As you'd expect, their path to Arlington starts with winning their two remaining games against the state of Kansas as they face both the Wildcats and Jayhawks to end the year. That's when Kyle Whittingham and his team would then need some assistance from elsewhere in the league.
The biggest thing that Utah needs, though, might seem a bit unlikely. Because BYU owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Utes and has one fewer loss in conference play, the Cougars would need to lose both of their remaining games against Cincinnati and UCF for Utah to have a chance. It doesn't stop there, though, as Utah would also then need Arizona State to lose one of its two remaining games in addition to BYU bottoming out in order to punch their ticket.
Houston Cougars
Remaining Schedule: vs. TCU | at Baylor
Not only does Houston have two of the most difficult overall remaining games among the Big 12 contenders who are still alive, they need plenty of help. Once again, it starts for Houston by taking care of their own business with wins over TCU and Baylor to finish the season in order to stay alive. But then Willie Fritz and his team would need absolute chaos in order to find its way to Arlington for the Big 12 Championship Game.
For Houston to play for the conference title, they would need BYU to lose its remaining two games for starters. And while, as we've already discussed that as unlikely, the Cougs would also require all of Arizona State, Utah and Cincinnati to lose one of their remaining games as well in order for this team to truly come out of nowhere and have a chance at an automatic CFP berth.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Remaining Schedule: vs. BYU | at TCU
For as tough as Houston's path is, Cincinnati's might be even tougher. The Bearcats losing to Arizona State in Week 12 made things next to impossible for Scott Satterfield's team, but there is still a chance. Upsetting BYU and beating TCU in the last two games of the regular season are where the conversation starts, as another loss would eliminate Cincy. Thereafter, though, the path is still similar to Houston's with all of the help they would require to make it to Arlington.
Beating BYU gives Cincinnati a bit of an easier path if they could accomplish that with the head-to-head tiebreaker there, but the Bearcats would also need Arizona State, Utah and Houston to all lose at least once as they would not hold the tiebreaker over any of those teams should it come to a multi-way tie.