Lincoln Riley needs a College Football Playoff appearance badly, as his tenure at USC has been less than stellar. This season is his best shot to get into the College Football Playoff, and the CFP selection committee still might omit the Trojans for an SEC team. SEC bias is real, and the CFP committee will use everything against the Trojans and any other team on the CFP bubble to make sure the SEC gets in.
USC is just one team that could be at a massive disadvantage as the CFP selection committee continues to decide which 12 teams get one of the coveted seeds. Right now, five SEC teams are in the field, with Vanderbilt and even Texas (somehow) still in the conversation to get in. The only way for one or both of them to get in is for one of the other non-SEC teams on the outskirts of the playoff to get screwed over.
USC Trojans
First things first, the Trojans have to win out, which includes a massive game at Oregon this week. If they win the next two games, they should be one of the first teams out or the last in, depending on how everything else plays out in front of them. BYU and Utah both can’t make the Big 12 Championship Game, so whichever doesn’t make it is probably below USC.
From there, it comes down to Vanderbilt and what they’re able to do the rest of the way as well as Georgia Tech, who still has an outside chance at the ACC title game. The Trojans most likely won’t reach the Big Ten title game so their best bet is an at-large. If Vanderbilt wins out and Georgia Tech reaches the ACC title game, however, that will probably end their CFP hopes.
It would take a lot for Texas to leapfrog, but I could see a two-loss Vanderbilt getting in over a two-loss USC because the CFP committee would prefer an SEC instead. That said, it would be a crime to deny USC a CFP bid just to put a less deserving SEC team. Vanderbilt’s best win is Missouri and they have losses to Alabama and Texas.
Utah Utes
Utah is in a terrible position. They lost the two most important games of the season (Texas Tech and BYU) and are on the outskirts of the Big 12 title game race. It’s hard to think the committee takes a two-loss Utah over a two-loss Vanderbilt if the Commodores beat a ranked Tennessee team in the final week of the regular season.
They both have similar résumés, so with Utah being the higher-ranked team, it just makes sense to give them the edge over Vandy. That said, if they win out, the committee would absolutely use a late-season ranked win over a team ranked below both teams as justification for yet another SEC team to jump into the field.
BYU Cougars
Losing the conference championship game isn’t supposed to punish you now that the field is expanded to 12 teams. That doesn’t mean the committee won’t try to justify why losing the title game means an SEC team gets in over said team that lost. That could happen to BYU if they win out and rematch against Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game. The Cougars, like Utah, are on the bubble but outside the playoff field.
Depending on how things play out, BYU could be hindered by not winning the Big 12 this year. Their resume isn’t great and their best win is against Utah. That plays into their favor, but might hinder them as Vanderbilt is still in contention. The best thing for BYU to end all the controversy is to win out, if they don’t, they could get jumped by Vandy.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia Tech is in the worst position of any team on the bubble. They’re two spots behind Vanderbilt, but have the best chance to actually get in. If the Yellow Jackets beat Pitt and get into the ACC title game, it’s hard to say they don’t deserve to get in. Though Pitt isn’t ranked anymore, they have to get the benefit of the doubt, after being ranked most of the season.
Unless they get whooped by Georgia in the season finale, the Yellow Jackets should get in. Then again, a loss to an SEC rival to end the year is all the reason the CFP committee needs to say if they can’t beat an SEC team, they don’t deserve to be seeded ahead of one.
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan might be the most intriguing team that could crash the CFP party. For one, they could still sneak into the Big Ten title game. They also could beat Ohio State, strengthen their résumé and somehow climb up high enough to get an at-large bid. The question becomes to the committee, how do you rank Texas over Michigan?
As far as common opponents, Texas beat Oklahoma, but in this hypothetical situation, Michigan beats Ohio State — Texas lost to the Buckeyes and Michigan lost to Oklahoma. It’s hard to think that Michigan would climb up higher than Texas just because of SEC bias, though if Michigan were to be Ohio State’s only loss, you have to wonder how important that really is.
Michigan still has a lot of work ahead of them, including needing Oregon and USC to lose at least one more conference game before the end of the season. If Michigan wins the Big Ten title, they could shove the SEC bias right back into the committee’s face and force them to take out an SEC team for a Big Ten team.