The Big Ten is likely only getting three teams into the College Football Playoff this season. Indiana and Ohio State are locks as the top-two teams in the country according to the latest CFP rankings, which leaves the final spot, most likely, for the Oregon Ducks, who came in at No. 7 in Tuesday's rankings release. However, if it's not going to be Dan Lanning's team, it would be because the USC Trojans stole that at-large College Football Playoff berth from right under them in Eugene.
USC also made a move up in the CFP rankings following their gritty and rainy win in Los Angeles over Iowa, rising from No. 17 to No. 15 in the selection committee's Tuesday night release. And it just so happens that the Trojans are now heading on the road to face Oregon on Saturday. While Lincoln Riley and his team might be several spots outside of the current 12-team bracket, a road win over the Ducks might essentially cause a flip-flop between the two that would hand USC a playoff spot.
Marquee USC-Oregon matchup in Week 13 just earned CFP stakes
Just observing how the CFP selection committee has operated so far this season, there are two things that are true. First, they honor head-to-head when the résumés are similar, which they would be — and, in fact, may favor the Trojans — should USC pull off the upset. The other thing we've seen is the committee not valuing Oregon in the same manner that AP voters and others have throughout the year.
While the Ducks have climbed to No. 7, let's not forget that this team came in at No. 9 in the first College Football Playoff rankings of the year, while the AP Top 25 had them slotted in much higher at No. 6. And to that point, they may actually have a point when it comes to Oregon, one that USC could take full advantage of.
Oregon has played just one team to this point that's currently ranked: Indiana. That also happens to be the one loss that the Ducks suffered this year, and it came at home inside Autzen Stadium. Meanwhile, when you go down the rest of their résumé, their best win is clearly the two-point victory in a slugfest against Iowa — but after that, you probably have to look at a win on the road at Northwestern, a bowl team but not much more, as the team's second-best win of the season.
On the other hand, while USC might have two losses on the year to Oregon's one, their body of work after 10 games is actually more impressive, and the Trojans are certainly more battle-tested. Not only do they also have a win over Iowa, albeit at home, but they have a home win over Michigan (by 18 points, no less), and a win over Nebraska. Neither of the losses are egregious, either, falling on the road by less than a field goal against Illinois and to rival Notre Dame in South Bend by 10.
All this is to say, the selection committee hasn't shown the Ducks much respect at all already this season, and they've slowly been pushing USC up in the rankings. That's all going to lead to Eugene on Saturday with a College Football Playoff berth likely on the line. And while Oregon might be nearly a 10-point favorite as of the release of the CFP rankings, the Trojans have a real shot to pull off the upset and snatch that spot in the 12-team playoff bracket.
USC is more of a challenge to Oregon than they're getting credit for
Going back to Oregon's relatively flimsy body of work through 10 games, it's hard not to look at how much of an outlier that game was, and how that could relate to USC. Specifically, while the Ducks defense checks all of the statistical boxes and has playmakers galore, it's worth noting that the Hoosiers put up 30 points on them and never looked back, and there's one thing that the Trojans and Indiana have in common.
Indiana has been the best offensive team in the country this season by EPA. But USC is not far behind, sitting at fourth in the same metric. And when it comes to the Ducks, it feels noteworthy that the one game in which the defense has looked quite mortal this season also happens to be the one time this season that they've faced an offense that ranks inside the Top 20 of that same metric. In fact, Rutgers is the only other offense inside the Top 40 that Oregon has faced.
Now, there are two sides of the game and the big difference between USC and Indiana is the defense, particularly the run defense. Oregon has been a rolling death machine with their rushing attack of late with the talent, explosiveness, and depth they can throw at teams. The Hoosiers were able to stifle that in Eugene, which has a lot to do with a run defense that ranks fourth in EPA allowed against rushes. USC, unfortunately, ranks 76th in the same metric.
At the same time, the Trojans do boast a Top 15 defense against the pass in terms of EPA, which could at least slow down Dante Moore and make Oregon's offense at least semi-one-dimensional. Furthermore, I suspect that USC will still showcase their ability to score in this game, and put this Ducks defense to the test for maybe only the second time this season.
That might not be enough to get the win in Eugene — but it also might be. And if we get an upset that puts both USC and Oregon at 9-2, don't be surprised if we see the Trojans, in a season when everyone was seemingly ready to sour on Riley and the job he's done with this program, shoulder their way into the College Football Playoff. That's at least what the latest rankings are telling us is fully on the table.