We're officially down to the nitty gritty. There are just two weeks remaining in the regular season, which means that most teams only have one or two more chances to impressive the College Football Playoff committee and earn their way into the final 12-team bracket.
The committee released its most recent rankings on Tuesday night, and while some teams should be feeling very good about where they're at right now — hi, Notre Dame — others have a whole lot of work to do in order to try and stay on or get to the right side of the bubble. Where does your team stand? We've broken down 21 candidates below to determine who's a lock, who's almost a lock and who's hanging by a thread, as well as what each team needs to have happen in the home stretch.
College Football Playoff locks entering Week 13
No. 1 Ohio State (10-0)
Sure, Ohio State isn't technically a lock yet — if they somehow lost to both Rutgers and Michigan to close out the regular season, thereby missing out on the Big Ten title game, there's a chance the Buckeyes could fall all the way out of the bracket. But come on: This team isn't losing to Rutgers. And even if they drop a fifth straight game to the Wolverines on Thanksgiving weekend, they'll still be just fine for the Playoff at 11-1. (We would strongly recommend Ryan Day take care of business anyway, though.)
No. 2 Indiana (11-0)
Indiana, meanwhile, could lose out from here and still be in OK shape for an at-large bid. Of course, they're almost certainly not losing the Old Oaken Bucket to Purdue, so this is all a moot point anyway. But even if the Hoosiers did, that would be their first loss of the year, and from there they'd either be in the clubhouse at 11-1 or playing against a ranked opponent in the Big Ten Championship Game — both of which would be enough to get them into the bracket no matter what else happens around them.
No. 3 Texas A&M (10-0)
Assuming A&M beats FCS Samford on SoCon Saturday — and that feels like a safe enough assumption, given that the Bulldogs are 1-10 on the year — the Aggies will be headed to the Playoff for the first time in program history. There would still be a ton riding on the rivalry showdown with Texas, but a one-loss SEC team (or a two-loss SEC team that falls in the title game in Atlanta) is a mortal lock.
No. 4 Georgia (9-1)
Georgia is in much the same position as A&M, with the added benefit of having already wrapped up their conference slate. Handle business at home against Charlotte this weekend, and it's hard to see a world in which they don't make the Playoff. The selection committee simply has too much respect for this program and for the SEC overall to keep the Dawgs out, even if Kirby Smart's team loses on Thanksgiving weekend to Georgia Tech and either takes a third loss in the conference title game or misses out on a trip to Atlanta entirely. (That win over Ole Miss is looming awfully large right now.)
No. 10 Alabama (8-2)
Alabama doesn't quite control its own destiny in the race for the SEC title game — they could still end up on the wrong end of a three-way tiebreaker with Georgia and Ole Miss — but in all likelihood the Tide will head to Atlanta if they take care of business in the Iron Bowl. Strange things happen in Jordan-Hare, of course, but winning out almost surely guarantees Bama of a spot in the Playoff. The resume is just too strong, with wins over Georgia, Vandy, Tennessee and Missouri, and the committee won't punish a third loss in the SEC Championship.
College Football Playoff near-locks entering Week 13
No. 5 Texas Tech (10-1)
I'd personally be stunned if the Red Raiders don't wind up in the Playoff, if only because they so clearly appear to be the class of the Big 12 this season. Still, West Virginia is playing better of late, and a loss in Morgantown that kept them out of the conference title game — or a third loss in that title game — would suddenly put Tech on thin ice. Again: It's not the most likely scenario, but with the way this conference has gone this season, you also can't rule it out.
No. 6 Ole Miss (10-1)
I thought hard about nudging Ole Miss into the "locks" section, but I'm not totally sure that the Rebels would be safe with a loss in the Egg Bowl. A 10-2 record is still probably fine, especially with wins over Oklahoma and Tulane on the resume, but Lane Kiffin would do well not to test that theory considering how much other teams could be in that two-loss pile by year's end (and that his team is just 2-1 against ranked opponents this season).
No. 9 Notre Dame (8-2)
Don't shoot the messenger. If it were up to me, the committee would take the Irish's head-to-head loss to Miami much more seriously than they have been. But the fact is that Marcus Freeman's team is sitting pretty right now at No. 9, and if they wallop Syracuse and Stanford as expected, there's virtually no way they fall out of the bracket.
Teams firmly on the College Football Playoff bubble entering Week 13
No. 7 Oregon (9-1)
Perhaps this seems harsh for a team currently ranked No. 7, but the Ducks don't have a ton to hang their hat on right now — their only wins of any note at the moment are at Iowa and at Penn State. They've got a tricky closing schedule, welcoming USC to Eugene before a road trip to Washington, and if they lose even one of those they could be in trouble when compared to other two-loss teams.
No. 8 Oklahoma (8-2)
Like, for example, Oklahoma. The Sooners appear to control their own destiny based on their ranking this week: If they take care of business at home against Missouri and LSU, it's hard to imagine them dropping out of an at-large spot. Then again, I still don't fully trust this offense, and just one loss likely knocks them out of contention, so they go here rather than the section above.
No. 11 BYU (9-1)
As things stand, the Cougars are the first team out despite having just one loss. The problem is that loss came in resounding fashion in one of only two games against ranked competition this season. The other wins haven't been all that impressive, and while a trip to Cincinnati is tricky, I'm not sure that moves the needle enough. It's looking like BYU will need to win the Big 12 to feel good about their chances.
No. 12 Utah (8-2)
I'm a little confused as to why the committee is so bullish on Utah, given that they lost to both Texas Tech and BYU and that their only win over a ranked team came against an Arizona State squad that was down to its backup quarterback. But clearly the Utes are doing something right, and while the at-large path requires a lot of help, it wouldn't take too much chaos to send them to the Big 12 title game instead of their Holy War rivals.
No. 13 Miami (8-2)
Miami, on the other hand, should be fuming: How exactly are the 8-2 Canes four spots below 8-2 Notre Dame, a team they beat in Week 1? Losing to Louisville and SMU shouldn't be that embarrassing, and Mario Cristobal's team has been pretty darned impressive everywhere else. Unfortunately, they're stuck behind four different one-loss teams in the ACC standings, and they'd need several teams in front of them to fall to get in as an at-large.
No. 14 Vanderbilt (8-2)
Vandy was maybe the single biggest loser of Oklahoma's big win at Alabama on Saturday. The committee has the Dores at the back of the two-loss pack in the SEC, and that's a tough place to be without a path to the conference title game. It'll take an inside straight to get Diego Pavia to the Playoff at this rate, and that's assuming they survive a trip to Tennessee on Thanksgiving weekend.
No. 15 USC (8-2)
Don't sleep on the Trojans. Last weekend's ugly win over Iowa in the rain felt like a statement of intent from Lincoln Riley and Co., exactly the sort of game they would've let slip away in years past. I'm not picking the Trojans to pull the upset at Oregon, but I wouldn't be shocked if they did, and suddenly they might control their destiny for a CFP spot given that none of the teams directly in front of them have another shot at a top-10 win.
No. 16 Georgia Tech (9-1)
The Jackets are leaking oil right now, following up their ugly loss at NC State with a near-ugly loss at Boston College. The committee is clearly unimpressed, and at this point, it's likely conference title or bust for Tech's Playoff hopes. The good news is that they control their own destiny: Win over Pitt on Saturday, and secure a spot on championship weekend. The bad news is that a win over Pitt is no sure thing, and neither is a win over whoever they might face in Charlotte.
No. 18 Michigan (8-2)
It's pretty simple for Michigan, despite their lackluster ranking right now: Win out against Maryland and Ohio State, and the Wolverines are guaranteed not just a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game but also a Playoff spot. It doesn't really matter how they fare against Indiana or anyone else once they get to Indy; an upset of top-ranked Ohio State would be arguably the most impressive win any at-large team has on their resume, one the committee probably can't refuse.
No. 19 Virginia (9-2)
By this time next week, UVA could be on the doorstep of an improbable ACC title game appearance; if SMU loses to Louisville and Pitt loses to Georgia Tech, all the Hoos would need is a season-ending win over Virginia Tech to punch their ticket. But again, the committee has made clear with this ranking that only a conference championship will get them into the CFP, as this is a resume distinctly lacking in quality wins and convincing performances.
No. 24 Tulane (8-2)
Despite convincing wins from the two teams below them on this list, the Green Wave the sole Group of 5 team to earn a place in the committee's top 25. That feels like a sign, especially considering that the American Conference uses Playoff rankings as its first tiebreaker: If Tulane wins out, they're headed to the AAC title game for a chance to clinch a spot in the CFP as the fifth highest-ranked conference champ. If they stumble anywhere along that path, though, the door remains wide open.
James Madison (9-1)
This is an uncharacteristically down year for the Sun Belt, but the Dukes have dominated all season long, and they put a real scare into Louisville before falling 28-14 back in early September. If chaos in the American leaves them with a three-loss champion, JMU will be perfectly positioned to snag the final CFP autobid. But the committee has repeatedly made clear it favors the AAC over the Sun Belt, which could bode well for our final team on the bubble.
North Texas (9-1)
There's a good chance that UNT gets boxed out of the AAC title game entirely; there's currently a four-team logjam atop the standings, all at one conference loss, and we have no idea how the tiebreakers might shake out. (The second criterion after the CFP top 25? A composite of computer rankings, including SP+.) But if the chips fall the Mean Green's way and they do find a way to play and win on conference championship weekend, they could well find themselves ahead of James Madison in the eyes of the committee and in position to snatch the final autobid.