Had the Alabama Crimson Tide won out over their final three regular season games, they would've waltzed into the SEC Championship Game. Instead, the SEC title scenarios and tiebreakers have now gotten much more complicated with Bama losing at home to the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday. It gives the Tide their first loss in conference play this season. And after Texas A&M survived a nightmare from South Carolina earlier in the day, it created chaos in the race to Atlanta for the conference championship game.
Of course, the Week 12 finale between the Georgia Bulldogs and Texas Longhorns undoubtedly will have major implications on the SEC race as well. However, with everything we know coming into this matchup, let's take a look at the current conference standings before we unpack what every contender that's still alive to play in the SEC Championship Game needs in order to make it to Atlanta.
Current SEC standings
SEC Standings | Conference Record | Overall Record |
|---|---|---|
1. Texas A&M | 7-0 | 10-0 |
2. Alabama | 6-1 | 8-2 |
3. Georgia | 6-1 | 8-1 |
4. Ole Miss | 5-1 | 9-1 |
5. Texas | 4-1 | 7-2 |
6. Oklahoma | 4-2 | 8-2 |
7. Vanderbilt | 4-2 | 8-2 |
8. Tennessee | 3-3 | 7-3 |
9. LSU | 3-4 | 6-4 |
10. Missouri | 2-3 | 6-3 |
11. Florida | 2-4 | 3-6 |
12. Kentucky | 2-5 | 5-5 |
13. Mississippi State | 1-5 | 5-5 |
14. Auburn | 1-6 | 4-6 |
15. South Carolina | 1-7 | 3-7 |
16. Arkansas | 0-6 | 2-8 |
Every team with two losses in conference play, which amounts to seven teams thus far in the SEC, is still alive to head to Atlanta and play for the conference title. Those teams are Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. However, the path to the SEC Championship Game is anything but simple for some while it's quite simple for others. Here's a look at the tiebreaker scenarios at play, and what each of the still-alive SEC contenders will need to play for the conference championship.
Oklahoma, unfortunately, has head-to-head losses that effectively eliminate them from the SEC Championship Game contention with falling at the hands of Georgia and Texas earlier in the season.
SEC tiebreaker scenarios for the 6 remaining contenders
Texas A&M Aggies
Remaining Schedule: vs. Samford | at Texas
While orchestrating a program record comeback to beat South Carolina, 31-30, on Saturday might put the Aggies at 7-0 with only one SEC game remaining on the schedule, Texas A&M's hopes of making it to the conference championship game are anything but certain at this point, which largely comes down to the regular season finale on the road in Austin against rival Texas.
If Texas A&M were to lose that game, regardless of the Longhorns being alive or not to make the SEC Championship Game, they would be in a world of trouble because of their cumulative win percentage of opponents in the conference. They will end up behind Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss in that category as Texas is their only opponent in the top half of the SEC standings as of right now.
Having said that, Texas A&M is the only team that controls its own destiny in the SEC, facing a win-and-in scenario against Texas.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Remaining Schedule: vs. E Illinois | at Auburn
Even with the loss to Oklahoma, that was only Alabama's first defeat in conference play this season, and they'll be heavy favorites in the Iron Bowl against rival Auburn. At the same time, finishing the season 7-1 might not be the most advantageous scenario for the Crimson Tide. While they own a head-to-head tiebreaker over Georgia, that could potentially be immaterial when the final conference standings are decided if there's a three-way tie also involving Ole Miss, once again going to the cumulative winning percetnage of opponents.
Beating Auburn in the Iron Bowl would obviously keep Alabama very much alive, and a Texas A&M loss to Texas on top of that would all but ensure the Crimson Tide will head to Atlanta. Where it gets tricky is with two of the lesser teams in the conference, Kentucky and Florida. If the Wildcats and Gators were to win against Vanderbilt and Tennessee, respectively, in Week 13, that would give Georgia and Ole Miss the advantage over Alabama to make the SEC Championship Game in a three-way tiebreaker.
Georgia Bulldogs
Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas | vs. Charlotte | vs. Georgia Tech
It all starts with the Week 12 matchup against Texas for Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs. Should they lose to the Longhorns, that effectively would eliminate the Dawgs from playing in the SEC Championship Game barring an unprecedented amount of chaos throughout the rest of the conference over the final two weeks of the regular season. But if they beat the Longhorns, that gives Georgia a real shot at still making it to Atlanta.
As mentioned with Texas A&M, UGA winning on Saturday night against Texas would put the heat on the Aggies to do the same in the final week of the regular season. If the Aggies were to lose on the road in Austin, Georgia would all but surely leap ahead of A&M based on cumulative conference winning percentage of opponents.
Ole Miss Rebels
Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida | at Mississippi State
The first thing that Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss need to accomplish in order to stay alive is to take care of their own business. A loss to either Florida in Week 12 or against rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl to conclude the regular season would effectively be the death knell for the Rebels' chances to play for an SEC title. However, as favorites in both of those games, the attention then turns to what Ole Miss would need thereafter to play for the SEC Championship.
What it, once again, might boil down to is what Texas A&M does in the finale against Texas. That's really the linchpin for many of the conference's contenders, and the Rebels are no exception. However, if A&M were to lose that game, Ole Miss would vault ahead of them in the standings based on, you guessed it, cumulative conference winning percentage of opponents. With the Rebs also losing to Georgia head-to-head, though, they would also need the Dawgs to fall at home to Texas.
Texas Longhorns
Remaining Schedule: at Georgia | vs. Arkansas | vs. Texas A&M
Texas' is the most convoluted path to the SEC Championship Game among the contenders that are still in the race. First and foremost, Arch Manning would need to lead his team to wins over Georgia and then Texas A&M to keep themselves alive in the conference race. However, they also might need more help than that, because their one conference loss on the season to Florida could come back to bite them.
The Longhorns would need Ole Miss to lose to either Florida or Mississippi State, even if they take care of business, to get into the SEC Championship Game. A win for the Rebels, especially against Florida, would give them the common opponent tiebreaker over Texas because of their upset loss earlier in the season to the Gators.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Remaining Schedule: vs. Kentucky | at Tennessee
Vanderbilt is technically still alive for the SEC Championship Game entering the night slate of Week 12 — but just barely. With Texas A&M surviving, the Commodores would be eliminated from contention with a win by either Ole Miss or Georgia against Florida and Texas, respectively. However, if both teams were to lose in Week 12 while Vanderbilt wins out to finish 6-2 in the conference, it would leave the door slightly ajar for Vandy's historic run.