LSU was already reeling heading into Week 9, with last week's loss to Vanderbilt their second in the last three games. At 6-2, their SEC and College Football Playoff hopes were hanging by a thread, and a win over Texas A&M was crucial to preventing a season with such high expectations from careening off the rails. What did Brian Kelly have for such a big spot, a top-3 matchup against a rival at home under the lights?
Absolutely nothing, it turns out. The Tigers didn't just lose on Saturday night; they got erased, allowing over 300 total yards and four TDs to Aggie quarterback Marcel Reed in a 49-25 boat-racing that had fans in Death Valley streaming for the exits at the start of the fourth quarter. If LSU was wobbling heading into this weekend, they're down for the count now.
This was the sort of loss that has the potential to sink not just a season but a program. This was supposed to be the year Kelly finally broke through, with a hot-shot quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier and a transfer portal haul to put the necessary talent around him. In the end, though, it's put the Tigers right back where they've been the last few years: good, but not competing for anything significant at the end of the day.
Which begs the question: What do you do with Kelly now? His tenure is on life support, and fans in Baton Rouge would no doubt love to move on as soon as possible. The financial reality, however, isn't so simple.
What is Brian Kelly's buyout at LSU?
If LSU did decide to go ahead and fire Kelly, they would owe him more than $53 million, which would rank as the second-highest buyout in college football history behind only Jimbo Fisher. The 10-year, $95 million contract the Tigers handed Kelly four years ago still has six years remaining, and would pay h im 90% of his salary through the life of the deal should he be terminated.
Kelly would receive $740,185 a month until Dec. 31, 2031, if fired at the end of the 2025 season. He’s making $10.175 million this season. The contract includes a duty to mitigate clause, meaning Kelly would be required to search for a new job if he were fired. LSU would only have to pay the difference in salary between the buyout and his salary.
That's a lot of money, to put it lightly. It's now up to LSU brass to decide whether it's worth it, and unfortunately, it just might be.
Why Brian Kelly could be fired by LSU?
In short: Because he hasn't won nearly enough. Kelly was brought to LSU after the 2021 season with the expectation that he would have the Tigers regularly competing for both SEC and national championships, and that he would do so with a bit more stability than his predecessor Ed Orgeron. Given Kelly's track record at Notre Dame, it seemed like a reasonable bet, and he was paid accordingly, with a 10-year contract that made him among the most well-compensated coaches in the sport.
What has LSU gotten in return for its investment? Talented teams that nonetheless found ways to lose games they shouldn't and play below their potential — in short, the sort of thing they canned Orgeron for. Kelly won 10, 10 and nine games over his first three seasons; not bad, exactly, but closer to Bo Pelini's Nebraska tenure than one might like considering all the talent and resources at his disposal. He couldn't field a defense around Jayden Daniels, and then when he finally figured out that side of the ball this year, Garrett Nussmeier and the offense collapsed.
At this point, there isn't a ton of evidence to suggest that Kelly has what it takes to turn this program into something resembling Alabama and Georgia, perennial powers that are regularly heading to Atlanta and making the Playoff. He's had four years, and he's yet to make meaningful progress, with a new problem popping up seemingly every week. Recruiting is good but certainly not exceptional, and the portal has been a mixed bag. The one thing he had going for him was a floor of eight- to 10-win competence, but after this latest debacle, even that seems to have disappeared. So what's the argument for keeping him around, beyond money?
Potential LSU replacements if they fire Brian Kelly
James Franklin
We might as well get this one out of the way up top. In many ways, Franklin's resume looks a lot like Kelly's, with plenty of wins and an impressive overall record but not much to show in the way of trophies. But hey, at least Franklin got the Nittany Lions to the Playoff (and the doorstep of the national title game) last season?
He has meaningful SEC experience, and the fact is that he's won everywhere he's been. LSU fans will likely turn up their noses at welcoming a coach that another program (a lateral move at best) just kicked to the curb, but he knows how to build a program. I don't think it happens, but there are certainly worse ideas.
Jon Sumrall, HC, Tulane
Sumrall feels like the most obvious fit. He, too, has won just about everywhere he's been, first at Troy and now at Tulane. He has plenty of SEC experience as first a player and then a coach at Kentucky, where he punched above his weight and fielded some legitimately fierce defenses under Mike Stoops. Plus, he's currently coaching in Louisiana, with plenty of ties to the fertile ground of New Orleans.
If there's a red flag here, it's his lack of experience leading a Power 4 program, much less one as high-profile as LSU. He hasn't been through the big recruiting wars, he hasn't dealt with this level of organization, he hasn't gone up against the Kirby Smarts and Kalen DeBoers of the world on a weekly basis. But he's more than earned his chance to do so, and the next time he fails will be the first. Sometimes you need to take a swing, and Sumrall has given us every reason to think he's ready for this.
Clark Lea, HC, Vanderbilt
Lea, on the other hand, does have experience at the SEC level, having guided Vanderbilt out of the cellar and toward the top of the conference amid a dream season for the Commodores. Diego Pavia gets all the love, as well he should, but the most impressive thing about this team is just how legit they look along both lines of scrimmage. This is no smoke-and-mirrors act; this is a real, bonafide contender of a football team, and Lea is responsible for building a defense that flies around and loves to hit people.
Of course, it's fair to wonder how much of this is a product of poaching Pavia (and his head coach and OC) from New Mexico State, lightning in a bottle if ever there were some. But Lea and his staff are the ones who decided that a 5-foot-nothing quarterback from New Mexico State was deserving of a shot to lead an SEC program. And Pavia is far from the only scouting and development success story on this roster. Clearly, whatever this program is doing is working, and why wouldn't it work with a bigger budget and access to top talent?
Brent Key, HC, Georgia Tech
For some reason, Key isn't getting as much buzz (sorry) on the coaching carousel as you might expect for a coach who has his perpetually little brother program in the top 10 for the first time in a very long time. Maybe it's because he started as the interim after Geoff Collins was canned, or maybe it's because he doesn't oversee or call plays for either the offense or defense. But Key has made sharp hires at Tech, notably OC Buster Faulkner, and most importantly, he's completely turned the culture around in a place that isn't often associated with the word "swag".
Plus, Key does have some SEC experience, having served as the offensive line coach for three years at Alabama under Nick Saban from 2016-18. His program-building chops are second-to-none, and he even has the Jackets punching well above their weight on the recruiting trail. He knows how to connect with recruits, he knows how to identify and develop talent and he knows how to build a winning environment. Oh, and he's already rooted in the South. What's not to like?