The College Football Playoff field will be decided on Saturday and Sunday. For teams lucky enough to play on Championship Saturday, they likely control their own destiny. This includes so-called bubble teams like the Alabama Crimson Tide and BYU Cougars.
For the rest of the tail end of the field – think Texas, Vanderbilt, Miami and Notre Dame, among others – it's not so simple. These teams must root for specific results including their rivals to make the Playoff, thus leaving their fate up to the whims of an unpredictable committee.
College Football Playoff rankings criteria: How does the committee decide?
The rankings heading into Championship Saturday were questionable to say the least. Notre Dame is ranked two spots ahead of Miami despite a head-to-head matchup in favor of the Hurricanes. Texas and Vanderbilt are on the outside looking in, though both teams have a stronger strength of resume than teams outside of the SEC, which isn't unusual given how impressive that conference is year-in and year-out.
All that being said, the Committee does have a set of criteria they take into account when judging which teams should make the College Football Playoff, which are listed below.
- Strength of schedule
- Head-to-Head competition
- Comparative outcomes of common opponents
- Availability of key players and coaches
Alright, I'm assuming you already noticed some conflicts of interest. With that in mind, these were the rankings heading into this week.
Seed | Team |
|---|---|
1 | Ohio State |
2 | Indiana |
3 | Georgia |
4 | Texas Tech |
5 | Oregon |
6 | Ole Miss |
7 | Texas A&M |
8 | Oklahoma |
9 | Alabama |
10 | Notre Dame |
11 | BYU |
12 | Miami |
Texas and Vanderbilt are ranked 13th and 14th respectively, and will be discussed below in detail.
CFP clinching scenarios for teams that don't play on Championship Saturday
For teams that don't play on Saturday, it's especially tough to sit back and secure their spot in the College Football Playoff. The committee tends to have a short memory, and while they claim not to take conference championship game losses all that seriously, we don't believe that for a second. There is still plenty of movement that could occur before the final rankings come out on Sunday afternoon.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Irish already got some help on Friday night, as Boise State won the Mountain West conference title game, thus giving Notre Dame a victory over a Group-of-5 conference champion. Notre Dame's strength of schedule has been a hot topic of conversation among SEC contenders, whose fanbases think the Longhorns and Commodores should make the Playoff due to their resume. However, Notre Dame should comfortably make the Playoff if BYU loses to Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game. If Alabama loses to Georgia in Atlanta, they could even move up.
Miami Hurricanes
Miami has a case over Notre Dame and Alabama, frankly. The Canes defeated Notre Dame, thus giving them the head-to-head edge, which the committee outlined as one of their top criteria above. Alabama also lost to Florida State in their season-opener. Miami defeated Florida State shortly thereafter by six points. The best-case scenario for Miami on Saturday is that BYU loses to Texas Tech. If the Big 12 gets two bids in this playoff field, it'll be awfully tough for Miami to sneak in. The same can be said of Notre Dame, of course.
Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns boast one of the better strength of resume's in the country. Thus, it was somewhat surprising a win over Texas A&M last weekend wasn't enough to get them into the top-12. I'm not going to lie, the Longhorns have a tough journey to the 12th seed, since four conference champions must make the CFP. Their best bet is if BYU and Alabama lose on Saturday. Texas must also hope the committee considers them a bigger CFP threat than Alabama even with that loss. The Longhorns have lost three games on the season – one of those being to No. 1 Ohio State. They likely will not pass Notre Dame or Miami without playing.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt would be a fantastic story were they to make the Playoff. Unfortunately for them, Texas defeated A&M the same day they pulled off a remarkable victory over in-state rival Tennessee. That was the Commodores best chance to make a statement to the committee, and they were overshadowed by a fellow SEC team. It was the worst-case scenario. Vandy's best bet is if the committee keeps the same energy in disregarding head-to-head victories, and instead moves the Commodores up thanks to their strength of resume, which is one spot above Texas'. Should BYU and Alabama lose, perhaps they have an argument.